NETHERLANDS / VENEZUELA: RATHER CONCERNED ABOUT

S E C R E T THE HAGUE 000042 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2020 TAGS: PREL NL VZ SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS / VENEZUELA: RATHER CONCERNED ABOUT CHAVEZ REF: A. MARCUS - MANN EMAIL 01/13/2010 ¶B. THE HAGUE 7 ¶C. 08 THE HAGUE 868 ¶D. 08 THE HAGUE 510 ¶E. 07 THE HAGUE 2012 Classified By: Ambassador Levin for reasons 1.4(b,d) ¶1. (S) SUMMARY: Recent allegations by Venezuelan President Chavez that U.S. aircraft operating from Dutch air fields in the Caribbean have violated Venezuelan airspace concern the Dutch. For Antillean and domestic political reasons, the Dutch Foreign Ministry sought assurances that U.S. use of the Curacao and Aruba FOLs (Forward Operating Locations) was limited to counter-narcotics surveillance as spelled out in our FOL Agreement. On January 14, the Ambassador delivered agreed points (Ref. A) to Foreign Minister Verhagen, who expressed appreciation for the assurance and warned Chavez could do a lot of harm. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (S) Dutch Concerns: At the request of the MFA, POL/ECON Counselor met with Laurent Stokvis (WHA A/S equivalent),Marc Werschuur (Venezuela desk officer) and Anton Schellekens (advisor on Kingdom Affairs -- Antilles/Aruba specialist) January 12 to discuss President Chavez,s recent assertions of American aircraft in Venezuelan airspace. The Dutch believe Chavez wants the FOLs shut down, and think two important events are driving Chavez,s actions -- the renewal of the FOL agreement (the Dutch believe the agreement is renewed automatically unless a party objects a year before the renewal date -- objection would need to be made by November 2010),and the upcoming Antillean elections. The Dutch believe Chavez is seeking to shut the FOLs down by stirring parliamentary objection to renewal of the agreement or promoting the election of an Antillean coalition opposed to the FOL. ¶3. (S) Due to the publicity surrounding Chavez,s allegations, Parliament has already sent to the MFA several sets of questions concerning the FOLs ) what are they for? What is the American military doing at the FOLs? Is the U.S. using the FOLs to spy on Venezuela? Looking at the upcoming Antillean election, Stokvis noted the opposition party (supported by Venezuela) which opposes FOL operations is running at 7 seats in the most recent polls. The government party has 5 and a pro-independence party has 3. The other two small parties in the ruling coalition register 0 seats. If the opposition and pro-independence parties keep this level of support and join in a coalition, renewal of the FOL agreement could be placed in jeopardy. ¶4. (S) Stokvis stressed it was the firm intention of the Netherlands to continue the FOL agreement, but things need to go smoothly. The MFA, therefore, was looking for a way to strengthen the government,s position (and that of the current governing coalition in the Antilles). In the upcoming parliamentary debate, the MFA will be asked have you asked the U.S. if the FOL is only being used for counternarcotics purposes as authorized by the FOL agreement? To be able to answer that question, the MFA had suggested a letter from the U.S. Ambassador to the Foreign Minister (Reftel B). Subsequently, Washington, Post and the MFA agreed oral assurances would be sufficient. ¶5. (S) During a January 14 meeting with Foreign Minister Verhagen, Ambassador Levin said: - There have been recent allegations of US aircraft, from Antillean/Aruban FOLs, violating Venezuelan airspace. The U.S. has categorically denied these allegations. - I understand these allegations have prompted parliamentary inquiry into operations at the FOLs. - Please let me assure you, Mr. Minister, all operations being conducted at/through the FOLs are in compliance with the FOL agreement. Verhagen responded with appreciation for the assurance. Verhagen observed the Dutch are rather concerned about Chavez. It appears Chavez is looking for a pretext for a quarrel. He added that Chavez can do a lot of harm. For example, he might make economic cooperation with the Netherlands Antilles difficult by blocking transportation. Noting Chavez,s recent statements (including those in Copenhagen),as well as the Venezuelan Foreign Ministry,s calling in the U.S. and GONL ambassadors in Caracas on January 11, Verhagen concluded there is something else.... ¶6. (C) During a January 21 meeting with the DCM, Stokvis clarified the MFA,s concerns. The Dutch do not believe Venezuela will invade Curacao, but the Venezuelans can cause considerable problems, particularly to the Antillean economy. Stokvis noted there were many family ties between the islands and Venezuela. Finally, commenting on Chavez's recent nationalization of a French supermarket, Stokvis said a Dutch grocery chain also had an outlet in the country. ¶7. (S) COMMENT: The Dutch appreciate the U.S. willingness to provide oral assurances about the FOL operations. They are also looking for some way to dampen down Chavez,s rhetoric, but they haven,t yet found the right mechanism. With upcoming Antillean elections and the pending change in constitutional status of the islands, the Dutch remained worried about Chavez,s troublemaking. END COMMENT. LEVIN