NETHERLANDS: DOING BUSINESS WITH THE CARETAKER GOVERNMENT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 000122 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV NL SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS: DOING BUSINESS WITH THE CARETAKER GOVERNMENT Ref: (A) The Hague 109, (B) The Hague 114 THE HAGUE 00000122 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. Summary: Following the withdrawal of the Labor Party (PvdA) from the Dutch coalition government on February 20, Queen Beatrix asked the remaining coalition members to form a caretaker government to "handle ongoing business" and prepare for elections on June 9. The caretaker government consists of the remaining two members of the coalition: the Christian Democrats (CDA - Prime Minister Balkenende's party) and the Christian Union (CU). The expectation is that the formation of a new government after the elections will take at least several months. Until that happens, the caretaker government is to stay clear of controversial issues, including most aspects of the Netherlands' involvement in Afghanistan. End summary. ¶2. On February 24, Queen Beatrix accepted the resignation of all PvdA ministers and state secretaries. She also asked the caretaker government of CDA and CU to prepare for parliamentary elections on June 9 and "do all that it deems necessary in the interest of the Kingdom" (ref A). Prime Minister Balkenende subsequently announced a number of internal cabinet reshuffles to fill some of the 12 portfolios vacated by PvdA, but no new persons were appointed to cabinet positions from outside the cabinet. The reshuffles include: - Foreign Minister Mr. Maxime Verhagen (CDA) has taken over the portfolios of the Minister for Development Cooperation and the Minister for European Affairs (both of which are already housed within MFA). - Justice Minister Mr. Ernst Hirsch Ballin (CDA) is now also managing the Ministry of Home Affairs and Kingdom Relations (the equivalent to the U.S. Department of the Interior). - Defense Minister Mr. Eimert van Middelkoop (CU) is now also managing the portfolio of the Minister of Housing, Neighborhoods, and Integration. [Note: This is a portfolio - the key element of which is integration/minority issues - within the larger Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment. End note.] - Minister for Youth and Family Affairs Mr. Andre Rouvoet (CU) is now also managing the Ministry of Education, Culture, and Science. - State Secretary for Finance Mr. Kees Jan De Jager (CDA) is now Minister of Finance. - State Secretary for Transport Ms. Tineke Huizinga (CU) is now Minister of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment. ¶3. Parliament must now develop a list of "controversial" issues upon which it will not act until a new coalition government is formed - a procedure that considerably restricts the interim cabinet's ability to act. Prime Minister Balkenende is expected to argue that some issues, though controversial, "cannot bear delay" and must be addressed by the caretaker government. However, he has acknowledged that his cabinet must observe restraint, adding that "we can't go further than parliament permits us to do." For each issue that PM Balkenende argues "cannot bear delay," parliament will decide on an ad hoc basis whether to take action. We expect parliament to finalize its list of contentious issues by mid-March. At that point, we will have more clarity on what decisions the caretaker government will be able to make. ¶4. While some aspects of the Afghanistan decision, as well as the planned procurement of a second Joint Strike Fighter test plane, likely will be put off until after the new coalition government is formed, other Afghanistan decisions could possibly be decided Qformed, other Afghanistan decisions could possibly be decided earlier (ref B). It is important to note that, while most decisions about the Dutch role in Afghanistan rest with the executive branch and do not require legislation, the cabinet will not act unilaterally without support from a majority in parliament. ¶5. Meanwhile, the Dutch are scheduled to elect new local/municipal councils on March 3. These elections will proceed as planned; they will have limited bearing on the June 9 national elections. At most, poor results in the local elections may persuade parties to rethink strategies and make personnel changes. ¶6. Comment: The general expectation is that the June 9 general elections will result in the fragmentation of the political spectrum into a dozen small- and medium-sized parties, with no large parties. This sets the stage for a complicated and possibly lengthy process (at least several months) to form a new coalition government. Until then, the caretaker government will have very limited powers and must defer to parliament for permission to act on any divisive issue. This does not mean that the work of the Dutch government THE HAGUE 00000122 002.2 OF 002 will grind to a halt; we expect the caretaker government to "handle ongoing business," including making decisions on non-controversial issues, participating in international fora, and engaging bilaterally with us. However, we cannot expect the caretaker government to make any significant policy shifts, launch major new initiatives, or act on contentious issues. End comment. NOLAN