CODEL HASTINGS DISCUSSES REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 000086

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2020
TAGS: PREL PTER KWBG SY IR TU IZ LE JO IS
SUBJECT: CODEL HASTINGS DISCUSSES REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
WITH ISRAELI MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Classified By: A/DCM Marc J. Sievers for reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Rep. Alcee Hastings on January 12, 2010 met
with Baruch Bina, Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA)
Deputy Director General for North America, and Nimrod Barkan,
head of MFA's Research Division, to discuss regional affairs.
The Israelis laid out for Rep. Hastings some of the
obstacles they saw as inhibiting a resumption of the peace
process. These included a perception that had been held by
some in the Arab World, including Palestinian Authority
President Mahmoud Abbas, that the U.S. would force Israel to
make concessions. Bina also pointed to Palestinian
reluctance to start negotiations from scratch with a new
Israeli administration, while Barkan noted a possible
preference among some Arab officials for indirect
Palestinian-Israeli talks. The Israelis also touched on
recent tensions with Turkey, noting that they have acted with
restraint, and requesting that third parties help convince
Turkey to improve the bilateral dynamic. Barkan explained
that Syrian President Bashar al-Asad seemed comfortable with
his position right now and would be unlikely to make
concessions that the West was seeking. On Lebanon, Barkan
said moderates there understood they would have to live with
Syrian influence. He added that Israel was content with a
deterrent-based cease-fire in the north, but warned that
Hizballah was still actively targeting Jewish and Israeli
targets in third countries. There was little discussion of
Iran, but the Israelis were interested in seeing what kind of
sanctions would be placed on Tehran, and they noted how
important it would be to gauge Arab -- especially Syrian --
reaction. Finally, the two sides discussed the plight of
Iraqi refugees. End Summary.


2. (U) Rep. Hastings was accompanied in his meetings by his
Chief of Staff Lale Mamaux, HPSCI Professional Staff Member
Linda Cohen, Policy Advisor Alex Johnson, and Military Aide
Maj. Timothy Thurston, and Poloff. Bina and Barkan were
joined by Daniel Meron, Minister for Congressional Affairs at
the Israeli Embassy in Washington.

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OBSTACLES TO RESTARTING PEACE TALKS WITH THE PALESTINIANS
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3. (C) Rep. Hastings began by providing an overview of his
tour of the region, telling his Israeli interlocutors that
many leaders in the region were placing great importance on
the upcoming Arab Summit and what it would mean for the peace
process. Bina explained that the GOI has put a priority on
restarting peace talks, but the Palestinians have backed
themselves into a corner. In his view, the Palestinians and
their Arab allies saw public differences between the U.S. and
the GOI over Israeli settlements as signifying broader
tensions between the two long-time friends. He assessed that
Abbas had been waiting for the U.S. to "deliver" Israel
without the Palestinians having to make any negotiated
concessions. Once it became clear that the U.S.-Israel
relationship was solid, Abbas found it difficult to figure
out a way to engage in talks without undermining his domestic
standing. Instead of talks, the Palestinian leadership has
turned to dragging Israel through various international
courts and institutions, Bina said, claiming that the
Palestinians openly tell Israeli officials that this strategy
gives the Palestinians the upper-hand.


4. (C) According to Bina, another obstacle to restarting the
negotiations is that the Palestinians reject the Netanyahu
government's unwillingness to pick up the talks where former
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert left off. Bina said that
partially negotiated agreements are not agreements. He
suggested that if Olmert had signed a full agreement, or one
or more interim agreements, then the Netanyahu government
would be obligated to continue that path. One option he
noted observers were talking about, including Foreign
Minister Avigdor Lieberman, was to shift to a paradigm of
"conflict management" instead of conflict resolution until
such time that the two sides were prepared to reach a deal.
He described this path as "less glorious," but said it could
lead to real improvements.


5. (C) Barkan's assessment tracked with Bina's. He said
that when the U.S. backed off from its apparent commitments
in early 2009 for a complete freeze in Israeli settlement
building, it "left Abbas to the lions." The Palestinian
leader cannot now enter talks without a concrete end game,
and he has domestic and Arab support to maintain this
posture. It would be helpful, according to Barkan, if the
Arabs states would back Palestinian engagement with Israel.
He is skeptical, however, predicting that the Arab Summit in
Libya on March 27 is likely to only force further

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entrenchment by the Palestinian leader. He explained that
Arab officials appear to prefer as an alternative to direct
negotiations proximity talks in which the U.S. would shuttle
between two sides and then present a package deal for each to
consider.

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TENSIONS WITH TURKEY
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6. (C) Bina also commented on the recent flare-up in
relations between Israel and Turkey over a program aired on
Turkish television that contained inflammatory portrayals of
Israel. Bina said that the government in Ankara, though it
does not have control over the content of the program,
"surely gave a wink and a nod" to it airing on television.
He suggested to Rep. Hastings that there was a pattern of
Turkish behavior, highlighting Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip
Erdogan's public bashing of Israeli President Shimon Peres in
Davos, Switzerland in early 2009. Meron added that Israel
has shown a lot of restraint by not recalling its ambassador
from Ankara. He said this was because Israel recognizes the
strategic importance of the large, secular Muslim state.
Still, he hoped that friends, including the U.S., could
convey to leaders in Turkey the importance of calming
tensions between the two sides.

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SYRIA AND LEBANON
--------------


7. (C) Barkan said that Asad appears very comfortable as a
leader right now. He assessed that Asad feels he has done
enough to contain Syria's economic problems, which makes him
less vulnerable to economic pressure, allowing him to
maintain his foreign policy views without making concessions
to the West. Asad also seems to feel as though he has deftly
reinstituted Syria's special status in Lebanon without
significant international opposition. He was skeptical that
Syria would be prepared any time soon to change its ways. He
advised that if U/S Burns travels to Damascus the Syrians
will bargain with him as if they were in the souk (market).
They will ask for more and more, he predicted, and they will
act surprised that the U.S. has not already given them what
they are seeking.


8. (C) Barkan said that the moderates in Lebanon understand
they must live with Syrian influence, as they cannot rely on
the Saudis, who are seeking broad Arab reconciliation in a
move to counter Iran. Barkan surmised that Israeli interests
in Lebanon are minimal. All Israel needed was a continuing
deterrence-based cease-fire on its northern border. He noted
that Hizballah was getting stronger, but added that the
threat of Israeli reprisals, potential Syrian opposition, and
a Lebanese domestic political constituency to answer to all
make Hizballah unlikely to seek a broad confrontation. He
said, however, that Hizballah is working actively to strike
Israeli and Jewish targets in third countries, but is keeping
a low profile to avoid Israeli reprisals directed at them in
Lebanon. Hastings told his MFA interlocutors that Lebanese
Prime Minister Saad Hariri related that the meeting Hariri
had with Syrian President Asad had been the most difficult
thing he had done in his life. The Congressman added that
Hariri spoke of Turkish mediation between Syria and Lebanon,
which the Israelis found interesting.

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IRAN: LOOKING TOWARD SANCTIONS
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9. (C) Rep. Hastings explained that from his consultations
in the region he found that Arab neighbors did not want to
see a nuclear Iran, but they also feared fallout from a
military intervention there. Bina said Israel supported the
Obama Administration's engagement policy, but the GOI is now
waiting to see what kind of additional sanctions will be
placed on Iran. He noted that upcoming French presidency of
the UNSC could prove "interesting." He added that gauging
the Arab reaction to the American handling of Iran was
important. If the U.S. is perceived to be soft on Iran, it
will encourage Syria to not change its ways.

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IRAQI REFUGEES MUST BE ASSISTED
--------------


10. (C) Rep. Hastings also highlighted the potential problem
of Iraqi refugees in the region turning to terrorism if host
countries to not do more to meet their pressing needs. Bina
agreed with Rep. Hastings that this could present a problem

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in the region. He said Jordan, in particular, fears a
potential meltdown in Iraq if the U.S. leaves that country,
and he anticipated the Jordanians would ask Israel for
assistance if any Iraqi instability spilled over into Jordan.


11. (U) CODEL Hastings did not clear this cable.
CUNNINGHAM