CODEL MCCAIN'S MEETING WITH PRIME MINISTER NETANYAHU

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 000180



SIPDIS



E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2020

TAGS: PREL, PGOV, IR, LE, AF, PK, IZ, IS

SUBJECT: CODEL MCCAIN'S MEETING WITH PRIME MINISTER

NETANYAHU



Classified By: Ambassador James B. Cunningham, Reason 1.4 (b) (d)



1. (C) Summary. CODEL McCain (Senators McCain, Lieberman,

Barrosso and Thune) met with Prime Minister Netanyahu at the

Prime Minister's office in Jerusalem January 10. After a

brief discussion of the CODEL's impressions from their visit

to Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Lebanon, the discussion

focused on sanctions on Iran and restarting

Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. On Iran, Netanyahu said

the jury was still out whether the regime would fall. The

Iranian regime is a "detested tyranny," but sanctions can

make it even more detested by the Iranian people. Sanctions

will not make Iranians rally around the regime, he said. He

also urged the Congress to promote efforts to unblock

Iranians' access to the Internet. Netanyahu recommended that

the U.S. try to get another Security Council resolution but

also move ahead with unilateral sanctions. Senator Lieberman

said that Congress will pass a bill giving the President

broad authorities to sanction Iran, including on refined

petroleum; then it will be up to the President whether to

exercise those authorities. Netanyahu said Iran's ability

to project power would make a "quantum leap" if they obtain

nuclear weapons. We must prevent them from doing so.

Netanyahu contrasted steps his government had taken to

promote peace with the Palestinians with the "other side's"

attempts to impose preconditions, promotion of the Goldstone

Report, and the return of incitement. Noting that he was

working with President Mubarak to get negotiations started,

Netanyahu said he would not "negotiate about negotiating."

Netanyahu asserted that the PA thinks it can get the Security

Council to dictate terms to Israel. The U.S. needs to make

clear to the PA that this will not work. Netanyahu also

repeated his position that negotiations must address the key

issues: an "end of conflict" and Palestinian recognition of

Israel as the nation state for the Jewish people, and

security for Israel. He rejected the idea of negotiating

borders first. Netanyahu said he had not given up on the PA,

but thought the Palestinians were being "spoiled" by the

international community. While offering to negotiate "on all

points," Netanyahu stressed his intention to stand firm on

the key issues. End Summary.



Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan

--------------



2. (C) CODEL McCain (including Senators John McCain (R,

Arizona),Joseph Lieberman (I, Connecticut),John Barrosso

(R, Wyoming) and John Thune (R, South Dakota),accompanied by

the Ambassador, staff members and A/DCM (notetaker) called on

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu January 10. Netanyahu was

joined by National Security Adviser Uzi Arad, Policy Adviser

Ron Dermer, Media Adviser Mark Regev and an MFA notetaker.

Senator McCain offered to share the CODEL's impressions from

their trip. On Iraq, he noted that December was the first

month in which no Americans were killed. Lt General Odierno

is confident that the U.S. will be able to move ahead with

withdrawal plans as scheduled. McCain said Iraq appears on

the right track. There are still bombings but much less

terrorist infrastructure. Senator Lieberman commented that

the Iraq army is getting better and better. Netanyahu said

his advice was for the U.S. to keep an eye on the Iraqi

military's general staff, which he predicted would be a more

important element in the future. Lieberman observed that

there is strong, anti-Syrian sentiment in Iraq. Iran is

spreading around money for the elections, but that is also

feeding resentment. He predicted that the winner of the

Iraqi elections may be whoever projects the most independence

from Iran.



3. (C) On Afghanistan, McCain noted that President Karzai is

getting a second wind. He was humbled by the elections, but

is now set to be president for the next five years. McCain

said Lt General McCrystal believes the Afghan army has good

fighters but there are not enough soldiers. They need a

400,000-man army but there are no plans to establish that

large a force. Netanyahu asked about Pakistan. McCain said

they had a long meetingwith General Kayani, who said the

army was plannng to move into North Waziristan. McCain

expresed confidence that the Pakistani army is working wll,

but noted that Pakistan's politics remain murky. Senator

Lieberman commented that Zardari may remain President, in

part because none of the other politicians want the job. He

added that after retaking Swat Province, the Pakistani Army

has a new, more confident look.



Lebanon

--------------





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4. (C) Senator McCain commented on the CODEL's meetings in

Beirut the previous day. He described Lebanon as being in

suspended animation for a long time. Hizballah holds

political veto power. Netanyahu recalled that he had been

part of a commando force that attacked Beirut airport in 1968

and blew up planes in retaliation for Palestinian attacks on

Israeli commercial airliners. He called all of Lebanon a

"tinderbox," with Hizballah storing weapons all over the

country. Hizballah, he said, has become effectively the

Lebanese army. McCain said PM Hariri had spoken to them

about his visit to Damascus, which McCain characterized as

non-substantive, but nonetheless a victory for Asad.

Netanyahu said Lebanon and Hizballah have become

indistinguishable. Hizballah is part of the government and

increasingly has a formal, hierarchical military structure.

Given this reality, military and intelligence assistance to

the Lebanese army is effectively assistance to Hizballah.



Iran

--------------



5. (C) Netanyahu commented that the use of "theocratic goon

squads" was creating strains within the Iranian

establishment. He said the jury was still out whether the

regime would fall, but nuclear weapons would act as a glue to

hold it together. Turning to sanctions, Netanyahu said only

sanctions felt by the general public would make a difference

since the public will blame the regime. The Iranian regime

is a "detested tyranny" and sanctions can help make it even

more detested. Netanyahu said he rejects the idea that

sanctions would cause the people to rally around the regime.

He welcomed that Congress had passed legislation intended to

fund a program to unblock Iranians' access to the Internet,

and urged it be implemented quickly. Netanyahu recommended

that the U.S. get a Security Council resolution if possible,

but go ahead with tougher unilateral sanctions in any case.



6. (C) McCain said there was no indication that Russia and

China were on board. Lieberman noted that the Administration

is losing patience with Iran. Netanyahu commented that

there are international expectations, both among supporters

and opponents, that the U.S. is going to move on tough

sanctions. National Security Adviser Arad pointed out that

sanctions may not work in isolation, but Iran is experiencing

political turmoil, political isolation, and the possibility

of the use of force. The weaker the sanctions, the more

likely the use of force. Arad concluded that he was puzzled

by the inclination not to use sanctions to their full effect.

Lieberman predicted that sanctions on refined petroleum will

pass the Congress; then it will be up to the President.



7. (C) Netanyahu commented that the nuclear program is a key

factor in the spread of Iranian influence, this should now be

clear to everyone. Iran's ability to project power would

take a "quantum leap" if Iran obtained nuclear weapons,

leading to an enormous growth in Iran's capacity to wreak

havoc. Eventually they will also threaten the U.S. We must

stop them, at this point by putting forceful sanctions in

place and unblocking the Internet.



Negotiations with the Palestinians

--------------



8. (C) Netanyahu asserted that his government had opened

hundreds of obstacles and roadblocks in the West Bank. His

Bar Ilan speech in June had captured the view of a majority

of Israelis that a final settlement should entail the

establishment of a demilitarized Palestinian state,

recognition of ISRAEL as the nation-state of the Jewish

people, and an end to Palestinian claims. He had followed up

in November with a partial freeze on construction in West

Bank settlements. These were strong actions and had not been

taken easily. In the same period, the Palestinians had

sought to impose preconditions that were never posed to any

previous Israeli government, had pushed the Goldstone Report

through the UN and returned to incitement against Israelis.

Netanyahu claimed that Abu Mazen had just opened a square in

Ramallah named for a woman terrorist responsible for the

deaths of many Israeli civilians. ISRAEL had tried to arrest

the killers of a rabbi, but had been forced to kill instead

of arrest them. They had been Fatah members, and the PA had

not taken action against them prior to the murder. Netanyahu

asserted that Salam Fayyad had then called these murderers

"martyrs." Netanyahu said ISRAEL still supported the PA

Security Forces and took no pleasure in undermining them, but

he suggested that the PA is not dealing effectively with

terrorists associated with Fatah. Netanyahu said ISRAEL has

a clear policy of "getting" those who attack Israelis.



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9. (C) Netanyahu said that during his latest visit to Egypt,

he had suggested that Mubarak initiate a meeting with the

Palestinians to get things started. He stated that the

Egyptian and Jordanian foreign ministers had then gone to

Washington, where they had attempted to "pile on

preconditions," but the U.S. did not accept this. Netanyahu

said the time had come to "stop negotiating about

negotiations." So far, the PA sees that it is not so bad to

be outside the tent. Senator McCain asked who Netanyahu

thought should participate in the negotiations. Netanyahu

responded that the parties should be ISRAEL and the PA, but

with the U.S. involved "somehow."



10. (C) Netanyahu complained that the PA thinks it can

internationalize the conflict and get the Security Council to

dictate the terms of a settlement to Israel. The U.S. needs

to tell them that this approach will not work. McCain

observed that in their meeting the previous day, Fayyad seems

optimistic. Lieberman noted that some want to start

negotiations on borders. Netanyahu rejected starting with

borders, since borders necessarily also involve people and

security. The settlements, he said, are not the cause of the

conflict, which is actually about Israel's existence. He

described the Palestinians as divided into three groups:

those who want to destroy Israel; a group that accepts and

wants to live in peace with ISRAEL (he said this was largely

limited to the business community): and those who want to

build a Palestinian state that will not fight ISRAEL directly

but will work to dissolve ISRAEL in stages. This last group

needs to understand that ISRAEL will insist on recognition as

a Jewish state. This is not a precondition for negotiations,

but the Palestinians cannot simply have a state based on the

1967 lines that keeps the conflict open. Netanyahu said he

would "not be nice" about this point, it was a requirement

for a settlement.



11. (C) McCain commented that he sensed Netanyahu's

frustration. Netanyahu said it would take time for the

Palestinians to internalize the need to recognize the right

of the Jews to a state. Any territory that ISRAEL turned

over now could become a base for attacks by Iranian proxies.

Israel's problem with the Palestinians is the eastern border,

not the western one. ISRAEL will have to maintain a

military presence on the eastern side. Netanyahu said some

expect ISRAEL to shut its eyes and walk away from its demands

for legitimacy and security. ISRAEL could ask for

international guarantees and turn the West Bank over to NATO

forces. This is nonsense, he said, concessions will only

come through negotiations. ISRAEL will not do borders first.



12. (C) Netanyahu said that he still had hope for the PA,

but the PA is being spoiled by the international community.

Recently they have done "some bad things," including pushing

Goldstone and the International Criminal Court, incitement

against Israel, and "timidity" in dealing with Fatah

fugitives. At the same time, the PA is consistently negative

on all of Israel's positions. Netanyahu said he would "not

let them avoid it." He added that there was now an "enormous

consensus" in ISRAEL in support of his position.



13. (U) CODEL McCain has cleared this cable.

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