CODEL MCCAIN'S MEETING WITH PRIME MINISTER NETANYAHU

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 000180

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2020
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, IR, LE, AF, PK, IZ, IS
SUBJECT: CODEL MCCAIN'S MEETING WITH PRIME MINISTER
NETANYAHU

Classified By: Ambassador James B. Cunningham, Reason 1.4 (b) (d)

1. (C) Summary. CODEL McCain (Senators McCain, Lieberman,
Barrosso and Thune) met with Prime Minister Netanyahu at the
Prime Minister's office in Jerusalem January 10. After a
brief discussion of the CODEL's impressions from their visit
to Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Lebanon, the discussion
focused on sanctions on Iran and restarting
Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. On Iran, Netanyahu said
the jury was still out whether the regime would fall. The
Iranian regime is a "detested tyranny," but sanctions can
make it even more detested by the Iranian people. Sanctions
will not make Iranians rally around the regime, he said. He
also urged the Congress to promote efforts to unblock
Iranians' access to the Internet. Netanyahu recommended that
the U.S. try to get another Security Council resolution but
also move ahead with unilateral sanctions. Senator Lieberman
said that Congress will pass a bill giving the President
broad authorities to sanction Iran, including on refined
petroleum; then it will be up to the President whether to
exercise those authorities. Netanyahu said Iran's ability
to project power would make a "quantum leap" if they obtain
nuclear weapons. We must prevent them from doing so.
Netanyahu contrasted steps his government had taken to
promote peace with the Palestinians with the "other side's"
attempts to impose preconditions, promotion of the Goldstone
Report, and the return of incitement. Noting that he was
working with President Mubarak to get negotiations started,
Netanyahu said he would not "negotiate about negotiating."
Netanyahu asserted that the PA thinks it can get the Security
Council to dictate terms to Israel. The U.S. needs to make
clear to the PA that this will not work. Netanyahu also
repeated his position that negotiations must address the key
issues: an "end of conflict" and Palestinian recognition of
Israel as the nation state for the Jewish people, and
security for Israel. He rejected the idea of negotiating
borders first. Netanyahu said he had not given up on the PA,
but thought the Palestinians were being "spoiled" by the
international community. While offering to negotiate "on all
points," Netanyahu stressed his intention to stand firm on
the key issues. End Summary.

Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan
--------------

2. (C) CODEL McCain (including Senators John McCain (R,
Arizona),Joseph Lieberman (I, Connecticut),John Barrosso
(R, Wyoming) and John Thune (R, South Dakota),accompanied by
the Ambassador, staff members and A/DCM (notetaker) called on
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu January 10. Netanyahu was
joined by National Security Adviser Uzi Arad, Policy Adviser
Ron Dermer, Media Adviser Mark Regev and an MFA notetaker.
Senator McCain offered to share the CODEL's impressions from
their trip. On Iraq, he noted that December was the first
month in which no Americans were killed. Lt General Odierno
is confident that the U.S. will be able to move ahead with
withdrawal plans as scheduled. McCain said Iraq appears on
the right track. There are still bombings but much less
terrorist infrastructure. Senator Lieberman commented that
the Iraq army is getting better and better. Netanyahu said
his advice was for the U.S. to keep an eye on the Iraqi
military's general staff, which he predicted would be a more
important element in the future. Lieberman observed that
there is strong, anti-Syrian sentiment in Iraq. Iran is
spreading around money for the elections, but that is also
feeding resentment. He predicted that the winner of the
Iraqi elections may be whoever projects the most independence
from Iran.

3. (C) On Afghanistan, McCain noted that President Karzai is
getting a second wind. He was humbled by the elections, but
is now set to be president for the next five years. McCain
said Lt General McCrystal believes the Afghan army has good
fighters but there are not enough soldiers. They need a
400,000-man army but there are no plans to establish that
large a force. Netanyahu asked about Pakistan. McCain said
they had a long meetingwith General Kayani, who said the
army was plannng to move into North Waziristan. McCain
expresed confidence that the Pakistani army is working wll,
but noted that Pakistan's politics remain murky. Senator
Lieberman commented that Zardari may remain President, in
part because none of the other politicians want the job. He
added that after retaking Swat Province, the Pakistani Army
has a new, more confident look.

Lebanon
--------------


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4. (C) Senator McCain commented on the CODEL's meetings in
Beirut the previous day. He described Lebanon as being in
suspended animation for a long time. Hizballah holds
political veto power. Netanyahu recalled that he had been
part of a commando force that attacked Beirut airport in 1968
and blew up planes in retaliation for Palestinian attacks on
Israeli commercial airliners. He called all of Lebanon a
"tinderbox," with Hizballah storing weapons all over the
country. Hizballah, he said, has become effectively the
Lebanese army. McCain said PM Hariri had spoken to them
about his visit to Damascus, which McCain characterized as
non-substantive, but nonetheless a victory for Asad.
Netanyahu said Lebanon and Hizballah have become
indistinguishable. Hizballah is part of the government and
increasingly has a formal, hierarchical military structure.
Given this reality, military and intelligence assistance to
the Lebanese army is effectively assistance to Hizballah.

Iran
--------------

5. (C) Netanyahu commented that the use of "theocratic goon
squads" was creating strains within the Iranian
establishment. He said the jury was still out whether the
regime would fall, but nuclear weapons would act as a glue to
hold it together. Turning to sanctions, Netanyahu said only
sanctions felt by the general public would make a difference
since the public will blame the regime. The Iranian regime
is a "detested tyranny" and sanctions can help make it even
more detested. Netanyahu said he rejects the idea that
sanctions would cause the people to rally around the regime.
He welcomed that Congress had passed legislation intended to
fund a program to unblock Iranians' access to the Internet,
and urged it be implemented quickly. Netanyahu recommended
that the U.S. get a Security Council resolution if possible,
but go ahead with tougher unilateral sanctions in any case.

6. (C) McCain said there was no indication that Russia and
China were on board. Lieberman noted that the Administration
is losing patience with Iran. Netanyahu commented that
there are international expectations, both among supporters
and opponents, that the U.S. is going to move on tough
sanctions. National Security Adviser Arad pointed out that
sanctions may not work in isolation, but Iran is experiencing
political turmoil, political isolation, and the possibility
of the use of force. The weaker the sanctions, the more
likely the use of force. Arad concluded that he was puzzled
by the inclination not to use sanctions to their full effect.
Lieberman predicted that sanctions on refined petroleum will
pass the Congress; then it will be up to the President.

7. (C) Netanyahu commented that the nuclear program is a key
factor in the spread of Iranian influence, this should now be
clear to everyone. Iran's ability to project power would
take a "quantum leap" if Iran obtained nuclear weapons,
leading to an enormous growth in Iran's capacity to wreak
havoc. Eventually they will also threaten the U.S. We must
stop them, at this point by putting forceful sanctions in
place and unblocking the Internet.

Negotiations with the Palestinians
--------------

8. (C) Netanyahu asserted that his government had opened
hundreds of obstacles and roadblocks in the West Bank. His
Bar Ilan speech in June had captured the view of a majority
of Israelis that a final settlement should entail the
establishment of a demilitarized Palestinian state,
recognition of Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish
people, and an end to Palestinian claims. He had followed up
in November with a partial freeze on construction in West
Bank settlements. These were strong actions and had not been
taken easily. In the same period, the Palestinians had
sought to impose preconditions that were never posed to any
previous Israeli government, had pushed the Goldstone Report
through the UN and returned to incitement against Israelis.
Netanyahu claimed that Abu Mazen had just opened a square in
Ramallah named for a woman terrorist responsible for the
deaths of many Israeli civilians. Israel had tried to arrest
the killers of a rabbi, but had been forced to kill instead
of arrest them. They had been Fatah members, and the PA had
not taken action against them prior to the murder. Netanyahu
asserted that Salam Fayyad had then called these murderers
"martyrs." Netanyahu said Israel still supported the PA
Security Forces and took no pleasure in undermining them, but
he suggested that the PA is not dealing effectively with
terrorists associated with Fatah. Netanyahu said Israel has
a clear policy of "getting" those who attack Israelis.

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9. (C) Netanyahu said that during his latest visit to Egypt,
he had suggested that Mubarak initiate a meeting with the
Palestinians to get things started. He stated that the
Egyptian and Jordanian foreign ministers had then gone to
Washington, where they had attempted to "pile on
preconditions," but the U.S. did not accept this. Netanyahu
said the time had come to "stop negotiating about
negotiations." So far, the PA sees that it is not so bad to
be outside the tent. Senator McCain asked who Netanyahu
thought should participate in the negotiations. Netanyahu
responded that the parties should be Israel and the PA, but
with the U.S. involved "somehow."

10. (C) Netanyahu complained that the PA thinks it can
internationalize the conflict and get the Security Council to
dictate the terms of a settlement to Israel. The U.S. needs
to tell them that this approach will not work. McCain
observed that in their meeting the previous day, Fayyad seems
optimistic. Lieberman noted that some want to start
negotiations on borders. Netanyahu rejected starting with
borders, since borders necessarily also involve people and
security. The settlements, he said, are not the cause of the
conflict, which is actually about Israel's existence. He
described the Palestinians as divided into three groups:
those who want to destroy Israel; a group that accepts and
wants to live in peace with Israel (he said this was largely
limited to the business community): and those who want to
build a Palestinian state that will not fight Israel directly
but will work to dissolve Israel in stages. This last group
needs to understand that Israel will insist on recognition as
a Jewish state. This is not a precondition for negotiations,
but the Palestinians cannot simply have a state based on the
1967 lines that keeps the conflict open. Netanyahu said he
would "not be nice" about this point, it was a requirement
for a settlement.

11. (C) McCain commented that he sensed Netanyahu's
frustration. Netanyahu said it would take time for the
Palestinians to internalize the need to recognize the right
of the Jews to a state. Any territory that Israel turned
over now could become a base for attacks by Iranian proxies.
Israel's problem with the Palestinians is the eastern border,
not the western one. Israel will have to maintain a
military presence on the eastern side. Netanyahu said some
expect Israel to shut its eyes and walk away from its demands
for legitimacy and security. Israel could ask for
international guarantees and turn the West Bank over to NATO
forces. This is nonsense, he said, concessions will only
come through negotiations. Israel will not do borders first.

12. (C) Netanyahu said that he still had hope for the PA,
but the PA is being spoiled by the international community.
Recently they have done "some bad things," including pushing
Goldstone and the International Criminal Court, incitement
against Israel, and "timidity" in dealing with Fatah
fugitives. At the same time, the PA is consistently negative
on all of Israel's positions. Netanyahu said he would "not
let them avoid it." He added that there was now an "enormous
consensus" in Israel in support of his position.

13. (U) CODEL McCain has cleared this cable.
Moreno