Estonian Defense Minister Welcomes Increased NATO

C O N F I D E N T I A L TALLINN 000025

SIPDIS
NOFORN
SCA/A FOR ANTHONY RUSH
EUR/RPM FOR RAPHAEL CARLAND AND AARON COPE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/22
TAGS: MARR PINR PREL NATO EN
SUBJECT: Estonian Defense Minister Welcomes Increased NATO
visibility; Estonian Commitment to Afghanistan Remains High

CLASSIFIED BY: HILTONJA, Pol/Mil, DoS, Tallinn; REASON: 1.4(A),(D)

(C) SUMMARY: On January 28, in a meeting with the Ambassador,
Minister of Defense Jaak Aaviksoo expressed his appreciation for
recent U.S. and NATO efforts to boost support for Estonia. This
visible support from the U.S. "makes it easier for the GOE to
maintain nine percent of its military operations in Afghanistan."
Minister Aaviksoo is optimistic that Swedish and Finnish interest
in joining NATO is real. He has no doubts about NATO's commitment
to Article V and considers those who doubt this commitment are
missing the "real security concerns," such as energy security and
managing the decline of Russia. While his political ambitions have
faced a setback following his party's recent congress, Aaviksoo has
pledged his continued support to the current coalition with the
Reform Party and to the IRL campaign strategy for the March 2011
parliamentary elections. END SUMMARY.



NATO visibility in Estonia Helps GoE Maintain International
Commitments



(C/NF) Aaviksoo considers 2010 to be off to a good start with a
very welcome boost from USG 1206 funding for replacing worn-out
mortars and gaining UAV capability. He also welcomes the
increasing visibility and complexity of air policing and other
NATO-related exercises and training in Estonia. Aaviksoo added
that these developments will help the government to maintain the
domestic political support necessary so that Estonia can continue
to meet its commitments to its strategic partners. (NOTE:
Parliament has approved a maximum deployment of 170 soldiers to
Afghanistan through December 2010. ESTCOY-9, currently
participating in Operation Mushtarak in Helmand Province, numbers
approximately 160 personnel. Aaviksoo personally has promised to
maximize the level of deployed troops with the addition of smaller
units such as HUMINT, SOF and IED disposal teams. Considering that
the Estonian land forces are comprised of 1,950 active duty
volunteers, this equals a deployment ratio of approximately nine
percent. The MoD also recently announced their intention to once
again send a civilian advisor to the NATO Training
Mission-Afghanistan, and they will soon boost their contribution to
the EU Police Mission by one, and possible two, police trainers
(reftel). Many within the GOE ask for more opportunities to deploy
with U.S.forces, but with the small size of the Estonian military,
the GOE lacks the forces to make this practical. END NOTE.)



MoD Optimistic about Nordic Neighbors' Interest in NATO



(C) Aaviksoo espoused optimism about Sweden and Finland joining
NATO, noting that, "It takes time for our Nordic partners to move,
but there is a lot more interest than can actually be shown."
Aaviksoo added that the Finnish Ministry of Defense is very
supportive of NATO membership. (NOTE: Sweden and Finland are
already very active supporters of NATO's Cooperative Cyber Defense
Center of Excellence and are likely to soon complete formal
agreements to become cooperative partners. END NOTE.)



Managing the Decline of Russia Will be Big Challenge for NATO



(U) Aaviksoo has a nuanced understanding of Russia, cautioning
that countries like Estonia cannot ignore the threat posed by
Russia, while acknowledging that the real challenge for NATO will
be managing a declining Russia. He added that even minimal
progress on an agreement on mutual threats between NATO and Russia
will help take the initiative away from anti-NATO interests in
Russia. Aaviksoo noted optimistically that, even though the
Kremlin has not properly assessed the threats to Russia, he
believes Russian intellectuals are developing a proper
understanding of the wide array of threats facing Russia including,
negative demographic trends, deteriorating infrastructure,
instability on its southern border, and the increasing strength of
organized crime.



No Question about NATO's Article V Commitment, Energy Security
Bigger Concern



(C/NF) Aaviksoo does not question NATO's commitment to Article 5.
Aaviksoo does lament the seeming lack of interest by many Western
European countries in such critical issues as energy security.
Aaviksoo also believes European monopoly policy is misguided when
it targets firms such as Microsoft, and there is a real need for a
monopoly policy "with teeth" that is not afraid to take on Gazprom.




Political Ambitions Thwarted, but Committed to Coalition and
Estonian Interests



(U) Aaviksoo is secure in his tenure as Defense Minister, and is
highly respected. He does, however, have domestic political
ambitions, which took a hit during the recent party convention of
the Isamaa ja Res Publica Liit (IRL),when former two-time Prime
Minister and current MP Mart Laar secured reelection as Party
Chairman. Aaviksoo was not reelected as one of the three Deputy
Chairs, losing his position to current Minister of Economy and
Communications (and ardent Laar supporter) Juhan Parts. In public
statements following the convention, Aaviksoo reaffirmed his
commitment to the GoE and the Ministry of Defense, and also pledged
his support to IRL's goal of securing 30 seats in the upcoming
parliamentary elections. Throughout the convention and in his
follow-up remarks, Aaviksoo expressed his hope that IRL's policies
will become more socially oriented.




(C) COMMENT. Aaviksoo is an intelligent, bold and forward-looking
minister committed to a greater role for his country. Estonia only
has a small number of troops in Afghanistan in absolute terms, but
Estonia has only a very small military and nevertheless, is one of
the few countries in the region nearing its target of spending two
percent of GDP on defense, even during the current economic
downturn. Moreover, Estonian troops operate in Afghanistan without
caveats. Estonians frequently offer to increase their deployments,
particularly with U.S. forces, but they simply lack experienced,
sustainable cadres of forces. The will to deploy is certainly
present, but the means are unfortunately lacking. U.S. support to
Estonia, particularly through IMET/FMF/1206 funds is well-worth the
time and money spent.
POLT