TAIWAN BY-ELECTIONS PRESENT DANGER FOR PRESIDENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000031 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/07/2020 TAGS: PREL KDEM TW SUBJECT: TAIWAN BY-ELECTIONS PRESENT DANGER FOR PRESIDENT MA AND THE RULING KUOMINTANG, OPPORTUNITY FOR THE OPPOSITION Classified By: Political Section Chief Dave Rank. Reasons: 1.4 b/d ¶1. (C) Summary: Three legislative by-elections on January 9 in districts held by the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) present an opportunity for the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to build on gains in last month's island-wide local elections. The KMT will be on the defense, and a poor showing would likely be seen as further evidence of President Ma Ying-jeou's eroding popularity and political clout. All three votes are expected to be close, with turnout levels and local issues expected to determine the outcome. The long-term impact of the vote may be fleeting, however, because prospects for opposition party gains in four more legislative by-elections in February do not appear nearly as good. End summary. -------------- MORE TOUGH BATTLES FOR PRESIDENT MA -------------- ¶2. (C) Three legislative by-elections will take place in Taoyuan, Taitung and Taichung counties on January 9. KMT lawmakers previously held these seats, but two were forced to step down amid vote-buying scandals and the other vacated his seat after winning the Taitung county magistracy in December. DPP Director of International Affairs Bi-Khim Hsiao told PolOff the opposition party originally was "quite optimistic" about prospects in all three races, but internal polling showed the battles tightening. She argued that party supporters appeared to have lost their sense of urgency after a strong showing in the December 5 city and county elections, which had been seen as crucial to restoring the DPP's credibility after landslide losses in 2008 legislative and presidential elections. Still, KMT Department of Overseas Affairs Director Kuo Yun-kuang also sounded a note of caution, saying he believed his party's by-election prospects were "not that good." Although voter turnout and local issues were expected to decide the outcome, any KMT loss would almost certainly be reported in local media as yet another political setback for President Ma, who also serves as party chairman. -------------- TAOYUAN: WHERE'S MA? -------------- ¶3. (C) Unlike the December elections for magistrates and mayors, when Ma campaigned tirelessly throughout Taiwan, he had yet to hit the by-election campaign trail as of January 7, two days before the vote. (Note: Local media reported he would campaign in all three districts the day before the elections. End note.) In Taoyuan, for example, KMT County Secretary General Liu Jui-nan told PolOff on January 6 that the local party office had not requested a campaign visit from the President. In assessing the local political situation, he said, the party determined Ma's help "wouldn't be that great." He added that Ma's prestige had fallen substantially since his 2008 election. In contrast, DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen had visited Taoyuan at least 10 times to campaign for the opposition party candidate, according to party officials. She was expected to appear again on election eve for a rally featuring other DPP big-wigs. ¶4. (C) The Taoyuan race pits a lawyer with little name recognition as the KMT candidate against a DPP standard-bearer who is running again after losing the 2008 race for the seat. The KMT is stressing its candidate's clean image -- "She's like a white paper, there's nothing negative in her background," said Liu -- and her ability to work with the Ma administration to the district's benefit. The DPP is relying on the slogan "gongdao," or justice, which refers to its claim that its candidate lost last time only because of KMT vote-buying. Campaign literature for the DPP candidate also stresses his local roots compared to that of his KMT opponent. In any event, the result may hinge on the supporters of a DPP maverick whose name will appear on the ballot even though he withdrew from the race. DPP Taoyuan County Executive Director Hsieh Jui-ming told PolOff the maverick could still get about 5,000 votes in a race that might be decided by as few as 3,000 votes. -------------- -- TAITUNG: WEAK KMT CANDIDATE IN PARTY STRONGHOLD -------------- -- ¶5. (C) The main issue in the Taitung by-election, which is in a legislative district never won by the DPP, is the tepid support of KMT loyalists to their party's candidate, Kuang Li-chen. In a recent pro-KMT media poll, only 29 percent of TAIPEI 00000031 002 OF 002 respondents had a favorable impression of Kuang. Kuang, who came under fire for her frequent overseas trips as Taitung county magistrate, divorced her husband and replaced him as county magistrate after he was forced to step down following his conviction for vote-buying. In an independent poll conducted July 2008, respondents ranked Kuang's performance worst among Taiwan's 25 mayors and county magistrates. Kuang's unfavorable image among the district's largely rural and conservative voters was further tarnished by the release of a video made two years ago, after she became Taitung county magistrate, of her performing a show-girl routine. While more Beyonce than burlesque, the DPP county office is capitalizing on the sensationalism to build on Kuang's unpopularity. As a result, KMT officials said, the party has an apathetic voter base. ¶6. (C) As in Taoyuan, Ma did not campaign in Taitung until the last day before the vote. With the Taitung seat in danger, Ma likely decided that the need to avoid what would be portrayed as a costly loss outweighed his commitment to promote a KMT with a cleaner image than the one projected by the scandal-plagued Kuang. Indeed, local analysts said, Ma's eleventh-hour appearance should boost Kuang as the President remains popular in a district long considered a KMT stronghold. -------------- COMMENT: ANY DAMAGE TO MA MAY BE FLEETING -------------- ¶7. (C) The legislative by-elections are the first electoral gauge of public sentiment since the KMT stumbled in December local elections that added to the growing perception of President Ma as a weak political leader. A strong DPP showing in the by-elections would strengthen that perception, particularly if the opposition party can win two or more of the three seats. A subsequent round of legislative races, however, should provide some relief to the President and his party. Three of four by-elections in late February will be in KMT strongholds, and even the DPP acknowledges its prospects in those races are far more difficult. STANTON