(U) COSTA RICA FEBRUARY 2010 PRESIDENTIAL

S E C R E T STATE 008695 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/28/2035 TAGS: PINR PGOV CS SUBJECT: (U) COSTA RICA FEBRUARY 2010 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS (C-AL0-00001) REF: A. 314/078486-09 ¶B. 314/071736-09 ¶C. SAN JOSE 000815 ¶D. SAN JOSE 000714 Classified By: ELISSA G. PITTERLE, DIRECTOR, INR/OPS ¶1. (S/NF) WASHINGTON ANALYSTS APPRECIATE REF REPORTING ON THE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT SHAPING THE FEBRUARY 2010 COSTA RICAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. OPEN SOURCE REPORTING HAS SHED LIGHT ON THE CANDIDATES' DOMESTIC PLATFORMS, BUT WE ARE STILL INTERESTED IN SPECIFIC FOREIGN POLICY AGENDAS (SECURITY COOPERATION, ECONOMIC - CAFTA, RELATIONS WITH KEY FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS SUCH AS CHINA, CUBA, AND VENEZUELA) THAT THE CANDIDATES PLAN TO PURSUE IF ELECTED. WE ARE ALSO INTERESTED IN LIBERTARIAN MOVEMENT (ML) CANDIDATE OTTO GUEVARA WHO HAS RECENTLY SURGED IN POPULARITY IN THE PUBLIC OPINION POLLS. AS TIME AND RESOURCES PERMIT, WE WOULD WELCOME INSIGHT INTO THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS. MANY THANKS FROM WASHINGTON. ¶A. (C/NF) HOW HAS LAURA CHINCHILLA'S CAMPAIGN STRATEGY CHANGED SINCE POLLS ARE SHOWING THAT SHE IS LOSING SUPPORT? IF ELECTED, HOW DOES LAURA CHINCHILLA ENVISION HER GOVERNMENT DIFFERING FROM PRESIDENT OSCAR ARIAS? ¶B. (C/NF) WHO ARE GUEVARA'S CLOSEST ADVISERS? ¶C. (C/NF) WHAT, IF ANY, KNOWLEDGE DOES POST HAVE ON SCANDALS THAT MIGHT BE EXPOSED BEFORE THE FEBRUARY ELECTION TO DAMAGE LAURA CHINCHILLA OR THE NATIONAL LIBERATION PARTY (PLN),OTTON SOLIS OR THE CITIZENS ACTION PARTY (PAC),AND OTTO GUEVARA OR THE ML PARTY? ¶D. (C/NF) WHAT ARE THE TOP THREE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES' NATIONAL SECURITY PLATFORMS? HOW WOULD EACH PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE, IF ELECTED, APPROACH COSTA RICAN SECURITY SERVICES AS INSTITUTIONS? ¶E. (C/NF) WHAT ARE THE TOP THREE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES' FOREIGN POLICY PLATFORMS? SPECIFICALLY, HOW THEY WILL MANAGE RELATIONS WITH COUNTRIES WHICH WITH PRESIDENT ARIAS ESTABLISHED TIES, FOR EXAMPLE, CHINA AND CUBA? ¶2. (U) PLEASE CITE C-AL0-00001 IN THE SUBJECT LINE OF REPORTING IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE QUESTIONS. CLINTON