U/S BURNS DISCUSSES IRAQI POLITICAL ISSUES WITH

S E C R E T STATE 006917

NOFORN

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D COPY CAPTION

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2020
TAGS: PREL PGOV IZ SY IR LE
SUBJECT: U/S BURNS DISCUSSES IRAQI POLITICAL ISSUES WITH
VP ADEL ABD AL-MAHDI

Classified By: NEA A/S Jeffrey Feltman, Reasons: 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (S/NF) SUMMARY: During their January 12 meeting, Under
Secretary Burns and Iraq,s Shia Vice President Adel Abd
al-Mahdi discussed the importance of holding inclusive
national elections on March 7 and expediting the subsequent
government formation process. Al-Mahdi noted while the
situation in Iraq is promising, the way the GOI addresses
potential challenges in the near term will be critical for
Iraq,s stability in the long term. He was upbeat about
Iraq,s economic potential, but was less forward leaning when
the conversation shifted to Iraq,s Chapter VII obligations
to Kuwait. End summary.

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ELECTIONS, GOVERNMENT FORMATION
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2. (S/NF) U/S Burns thanked al-Mahdi for his constructive
approach to the recent national election law impasse, adding
that his leadership will be critical in the coming months.
Al-Mahdi acknowledged the importance of holding transparent
and inclusive elections, saying that Iraq should aim to
achieve a higher voter turnout with each successive election.
Turning to the controversial effort by the Accountability
and Justice Committee (AJC) to bar Sunni MP Saleh al-Mutlaq
from the election, al-Mahdi said the AJC &shouldn,t have
done it. &We should apply the law, not politicize it,8
said the VP, who went on to observe that the Independent High
Electoral Commission would need help from Iraq,s Council of
Representatives in order to withstand pressure from the AJC.
In an effort to prevent further escalation, al-Mahdi added
that Iraqi leaders have asked al-Mutlaq to remain calm.


3. (S/NF) U/S Burns agreed that the elections must be as
inclusive as possible, and encouraged al-Mahdi to reinforce
that point in both his public and private remarks. U/S Burns
also stressed the need for swift government formation after
the election. Al-Mahdi agreed to continue calling for
inclusiveness, and said that Iraqi leaders would &stick to
the timetable8 on government formation, adding that informal
negotiations ) though contingent upon election results )
had already begun.


4. (S/NF) Turning to the economy, al-Mahdi noted that the
recent rise in world oil prices had been a windfall for Iraq.
The challenge now, he continued, was to increase production
to 8-10 million barrels per day. He observed that the second
round of awarding contracts had gone better than the first,
and stressed that the presence of foreign oil companies in
Iraq was evidence that his country had changed its &old
mentality8 and was embracing the free market.


5. (S/NF) Al-Mahdi emphasized the importance of GOI
leadership on investment issues and said that when Iraq has
taken the lead this has been well received by neighbors and
international investors. He noted that when the Coalition
Provisional Authority established an investment law it was
widely criticized, but when the Council of Representatives
passed its own investment law it sent a clear message that
Iraq is ready for business.

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REGIONAL ISSUES, IRAN
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6.(S/NF) Shifting to regional issues, al-Mahdi characterized
Iraq,s neighborhood as "lost and unbalanced" due to
inter-Arab rivalries and the changing roles of Iran and
Turkey in the regional balance of power. He described the
current unrest in Iran as the most significant challenge ever
to the Islamic Republic, and predicted that Iran,s leaders
would eventually find a way to reconcile with the
disenfranchised electorate. The alternative, he said, would
be a complete break that would be dangerous for both parties.
However, he acknowledged that there is already a very deep
rift between President Ahmadinejad on the one hand, and
former President Rafsanjani and the Larijani brothers on the
other hand. &There are real divisions, even within the
IRGC,8 he said. As for Iran,s regional role, he opined:
&Iran needs to calm down and accept the rules of the game.
They should have a role, but a controlled role.8


7. (S/NF) U/S Burns reviewed the extensive efforts the
President had made to turn the page in U.S.-Iranian
relations, both bilaterally and within the context of the
P5 1. He stressed that Iran,s response left much to be
desired, and while the U.S. will not abandon engagement, it
cannot sustain that approach without making clear to Iran
that there are real consequences for its refusal to address
international concerns about its nuclear program.


8. (S/NF) Al-Mahdi claimed to see a change for the better in
Iranian behavior in Iraq, adding that the Turks and Syrians
were also playing a more positive role. &I sense a certain
wisdom in the Turkish leadership,8 he said enigmatically.
Even Lebanon,s Hassan Nasrallah, whom al-Mahdi met with last
summer, was showing signs of moderation.

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KUWAIT, CHAPTER VII
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9. (S/NF) U/S Burns stressed the importance of improved
relations between Iraq and Kuwait. Al-Mahdi reported that
relations with Kuwait were good but admitted that Kuwait and
Iraq were making little headway sorting out their border
issues. He claimed that further progress depends on the
Kuwaitis, who need to understand that &it,s time to end
this8 (i.e., Iraq,s Chapter VII obligations) because
&Iraqis are stewing.8 &We are being punished for things
that Saddam did,8 lamented the Iraqi Vice President, who
added that Iraq "will not" be held accountable for actions
committed by the previous regime. He said this issue creates
bad feelings among Iraqis, which is unfortunate because
Kuwaitis have "done good things for Iraq."
CLINTON