(C) REQUEST FOR INFORMATION ON THE POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 006448

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2035
TAGS: PINR PGOV PREL CY GR TU
SUBJECT: (C) REQUEST FOR INFORMATION ON THE POLITICAL
SITUATION IN THE "TURKISH REPUBLIC OF NORTHERN CYPRUS"
(C-RE9-02582)

Classified By: ELISSA G. PITTERLE, DIRECTOR, INR/OPS


1. (SBU) WASHINGTON ANALYSTS ARE CLOSELY MONITORING THE
POLITICAL SITUATION IN THE "TURKISH REPUBLIC OF NORTHERN
CYPRUS" (TRNC) AS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS APPROACH IN APRIL

2010. THE OUTCOME OF THESE ELECTIONS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
PACE AND TRAJECTORY OF REUNIFICATION NEGOTIATIONS, WHICH
COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT INTERNAL AND REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS. WE
REQUEST INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES,
POLITICAL PARTIES, CAMPAIGN STRATEGIES, MEDIA INFLUENCE, AND
KEY SOURCES OF SUPPORT, BOTH INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL. THIS
INFORMATION WILL BE USED FOR UPCOMING ANALYTICAL PRODUCTION
TO KEEP POLICYMAKERS ABREAST OF THE SITUATION AND WOULD
APPRECIATE ANY INFORMATION POST CAN PROVIDE, AS TIME AND
RESOURCES PERMIT.


A. (SBU) WHAT ANTI-SOLUTION ASSOCIATIONS IN THE TRNC CARRY
THE MOST POLITICAL INFLUENCE TO INCLUDE THE ORGANIZATION OF
THE 47, TURKISH FIGHTER'S ASSOCIATION, THE MARTYR'S
ASSOCIATION, TURKISH MIGRANTS SOLIDARITY ASSOCIATION, TRNC
FOREVER ASSOCIATION, AND CIVIL DEFENSE ORGANIZATION?
APPROXIMATELY HOW MANY MEMBERS DO THEY HAVE AND WITH WHICH
POLITICAL PARTIES ARE THEY ASSOCIATED?


B. (SBU) WHAT PRO-SOLUTION ASSOCIATIONS IN THE TRNC CARRY
THE MOST POLITICAL INFLUENCE TO INCLUDE THE BUSINESSMEN'S
ASSOCIATION, THE CHAMBERS OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY,
CONSTRUCTORS ASSOCIATION, AND THE YOUNG BUSINESSMEN'S
ASSOCIATION? APPROXIMATELY HOW MANY MEMBERS DO THEY HAVE AND
WITH WHICH POLITICAL LEADER OR PARTY ARE THEY ASSOCIATED?


C. (SBU) HOW MANY THINK TANKS ARE IN THE TRNC? WHICH ARE
THE MOST INFLUENTIAL AND TO WHAT DEGREE DO THEY INFLUENCE
POLICY?


D. (SBU) WHO ARE LIKELY CANDIDATES TO RUN IN THE UPCOMING
TRNC PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS?


E. (SBU) WHO ARE THE MOST POPULAR POLITICAL LEADERS IN THE
TRNC? ARE THERE ANY UP-AND-COMING POLITICAL FIGURES IN THE
TRNC?


F. (SBU) WHO ARE THE MOST POPULAR POLITICAL COMMENTATORS IN
THE TRNC?


G. (SBU) TO WHAT DEGREE DOES RELIGION INFLUENCE POLITICS IN
THE TRNC? WHO ARE THE MOST PUBLIC RELIGIOUS LEADERS IN THE
TRNC? WHAT RELIGIOUS ORGANIZATIONS CARRY THE MOST POLITICAL
INFLUENCE IN THE TRNC?


H. (SBU) WHAT IS THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY, INCLUDING
REFORMS, CASINOS, UNIONS, AND PRIVATE UNIVERSITIES, IN THE
TRNC? HOW WILL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS INFLUENCE PUBLIC SUPPORT
FOR REUNIFICATION?


I. (SBU) TO WHAT DEGREE DO TURKEY AND GREECE INFLUENCE TRNC
POLITICS?


2. (U) PLEASE CITE C-RE9-02582 IN THE SUBJECT LINE OF
REPORTING IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE QUESTIONS.
CLINTON