(C) REQUEST FOR INFORMATION ON THE POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 006448 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2035 TAGS: PINR PGOV PREL CY GR TU SUBJECT: (C) REQUEST FOR INFORMATION ON THE POLITICAL SITUATION IN THE "TURKISH REPUBLIC OF NORTHERN CYPRUS" (C-RE9-02582) Classified By: ELISSA G. PITTERLE, DIRECTOR, INR/OPS ¶1. (SBU) WASHINGTON ANALYSTS ARE CLOSELY MONITORING THE POLITICAL SITUATION IN THE "TURKISH REPUBLIC OF NORTHERN CYPRUS" (TRNC) AS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS APPROACH IN APRIL ¶2010. THE OUTCOME OF THESE ELECTIONS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE PACE AND TRAJECTORY OF REUNIFICATION NEGOTIATIONS, WHICH COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT INTERNAL AND REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS. WE REQUEST INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES, POLITICAL PARTIES, CAMPAIGN STRATEGIES, MEDIA INFLUENCE, AND KEY SOURCES OF SUPPORT, BOTH INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL. THIS INFORMATION WILL BE USED FOR UPCOMING ANALYTICAL PRODUCTION TO KEEP POLICYMAKERS ABREAST OF THE SITUATION AND WOULD APPRECIATE ANY INFORMATION POST CAN PROVIDE, AS TIME AND RESOURCES PERMIT. ¶A. (SBU) WHAT ANTI-SOLUTION ASSOCIATIONS IN THE TRNC CARRY THE MOST POLITICAL INFLUENCE TO INCLUDE THE ORGANIZATION OF THE 47, TURKISH FIGHTER'S ASSOCIATION, THE MARTYR'S ASSOCIATION, TURKISH MIGRANTS SOLIDARITY ASSOCIATION, TRNC FOREVER ASSOCIATION, AND CIVIL DEFENSE ORGANIZATION? APPROXIMATELY HOW MANY MEMBERS DO THEY HAVE AND WITH WHICH POLITICAL PARTIES ARE THEY ASSOCIATED? ¶B. (SBU) WHAT PRO-SOLUTION ASSOCIATIONS IN THE TRNC CARRY THE MOST POLITICAL INFLUENCE TO INCLUDE THE BUSINESSMEN'S ASSOCIATION, THE CHAMBERS OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, CONSTRUCTORS ASSOCIATION, AND THE YOUNG BUSINESSMEN'S ASSOCIATION? APPROXIMATELY HOW MANY MEMBERS DO THEY HAVE AND WITH WHICH POLITICAL LEADER OR PARTY ARE THEY ASSOCIATED? ¶C. (SBU) HOW MANY THINK TANKS ARE IN THE TRNC? WHICH ARE THE MOST INFLUENTIAL AND TO WHAT DEGREE DO THEY INFLUENCE POLICY? ¶D. (SBU) WHO ARE LIKELY CANDIDATES TO RUN IN THE UPCOMING TRNC PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS? ¶E. (SBU) WHO ARE THE MOST POPULAR POLITICAL LEADERS IN THE TRNC? ARE THERE ANY UP-AND-COMING POLITICAL FIGURES IN THE TRNC? ¶F. (SBU) WHO ARE THE MOST POPULAR POLITICAL COMMENTATORS IN THE TRNC? ¶G. (SBU) TO WHAT DEGREE DOES RELIGION INFLUENCE POLITICS IN THE TRNC? WHO ARE THE MOST PUBLIC RELIGIOUS LEADERS IN THE TRNC? WHAT RELIGIOUS ORGANIZATIONS CARRY THE MOST POLITICAL INFLUENCE IN THE TRNC? ¶H. (SBU) WHAT IS THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY, INCLUDING REFORMS, CASINOS, UNIONS, AND PRIVATE UNIVERSITIES, IN THE TRNC? HOW WILL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS INFLUENCE PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR REUNIFICATION? ¶I. (SBU) TO WHAT DEGREE DO TURKEY AND GREECE INFLUENCE TRNC POLITICS? ¶2. (U) PLEASE CITE C-RE9-02582 IN THE SUBJECT LINE OF REPORTING IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE QUESTIONS. CLINTON