CFE: JCG OPENING OF SESSION GUIDANCE AND

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 STATE 004441 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OSCE PARM PREL KCFE SUBJECT: CFE: JCG OPENING OF SESSION GUIDANCE AND STATEMENT FOR JANUARY 19, 2010 REF: (A) 09 USOSCE 285: CFE/JCG: END-OF-ROUND, FALL 2008 (B) 09 STATE 92639: CFE: JCG FALL 2009 OPENING OF SESSION GUIDANCE AND STATEMENT, (C) 09 STATE 4933: CFE: JCG OPENING OF SESSION GUIDANCE AND STATEMENT FOR JANUARY 20, 2009, (D) 08 STATE 12563: CFE/JCG: CONTRIBUTING TO NATO'S CFE GAME PLAN ¶1. (SBU) Russia's ongoing suspension of its CFE Treaty implementation since December 12, 2007 will set the tone for the opening session of the Joint Consultative Group (JCG) in 2010. Russia will likely continue to press for discussion of elements of its May 2009 Aide Memoire in the JCG and NATO-Russia Council, and to seek to gain traction in whatever forum Russia can for defining "substantial combat forces" and conditions for accession of new CFE States Parties. We also expect Russia to continue to reject criticism of its own non-compliance by accusing NATO CFE States Parties of violations based on Russia's unilateral interpretation of the existence of aggregate collective ceilings rather than the legitimate limits specified in the CFE Treaty and actual national holdings, in particular in the flank region. ¶2. (SBU) In 2010, we anticipate that the High Level Task Force will remain the primary venue for coordinating NATO policy on CFE and that the U.S. will engage Russia, as well as key Allies, at more senior levels on the way ahead for solving the political and treaty issues at the core of the CFE impasse. As bilateral consultations with Russia on CFE continue, Washington is interested in maintaining a unified Alliance voice in support of our efforts, and in cultivating an environment in the JCG that reinforces the NATO-endorsed positions regarding these negotiations. The JCG should continue to serve as the key venue for addressing CFE compliance and implementation issues, including those compliance failures associated with Russia's "suspension," in addition to those associated with other CFE States Parties (as detailed in the most recent Condition 5 Report). ¶3. (SBU) The U.S. Arms Control Delegation in Vienna should continue to follow standing guidance (per reftels B and C and outlined below) while making interventions in accordance with U.S. policy, as required. U.S. del should continue to encourage Allied CFE States to use the JCG to establish a clear record of ongoing Russian noncompliance while calling on Russia to return to full implementation. In doing so, the delegation should seek to: -- actively raise (in the JCG and/or bilaterally as appropriate) and report on instances of noncompliance with CFE Treaty obligations by Russia and other States Parties (i.e. raise bilaterally with Azerbaijan its continued overages in holdings of tanks and artillery, and report on any response); -- emphasize the benefits of the CFE regime and the importance of all States Parties implementing the CFE Treaty fully; -- stress the continued interest of the U.S. and its Allies in creating the conditions that will result in the ratification and subsequent entry into force of the adapted CFE Treaty; -- resist efforts by Russia and possibly others to use the JCG to discuss and/or negotiate elements of the Parallel Actions Package, thereby complicating efforts to resolve the CFE impasse, which we expect to take place at more senior levels this year; -- ask questions about Russia's military posture per ref D, in plenary and bilaterally as appropriate. Encourage Russia to provide more details, in the spirit of transparency, on the results of the ongoing restructuring of its Armed Forces, and on Russian forces in the flank region. Ask for clarification about current and planned activity by Russian military forces reported in press, namely any anticipated to take place STATE 00004441 002 OF 003 near other CFE States Parties; -- refute claims by Russia that NATO States Parties are in violation of CFE limits, avoid being drawn into any technical debate on treaty numbers, and redirect discussion toward forward-looking and productive efforts that will lead to entry into force of the adapted Treaty; and, -- approach Georgian del bilaterally to follow-up on inconsistencies between Georgia's official hardcopy and electronic versions of its CFE data provided to States Parties on 15 December 2009, valid as of 1 January 2010. A U.S. data expert has asked Georgia's representative at the January 11-12 DMEG in Brussels to investigate inconsistencies that surfaced during a detailed review of Georgia's CFE military information. Washington will provide U.S. del specifics on the discrepancies, results of the data expert discussion, and any pending action as details become available. ¶4. (SBU) The following statement is provided for delivery at the JCG Opening of Session Plenary on 19 January 2010. U.S. Representative may provide advance copies to NATO Allies in the NATO-T and to others as appropriate. Begin Text -------------- Mr. Chairman, A new year and a new decade present a fresh opportunity to focus our efforts in this forum, and elsewhere, to overcome the challenges facing the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE). The United States would like to reassure all in this room of our continued commitment to the CFE Treaty and our resolve to work cooperatively with all parties to create the conditions that would allow the Adapted CFE Treaty to enter into force. We regret the Russian Federation's continued refusal to implement the Treaty since December 2007. We continue to believe that Russia's non-implementationposes a serious risk to a regime of significant value to the security of Europe. We look forward to working closely with Russia and our Treaty partners in 2010 to resolve the continued CFE impasse so that this important and significant treaty can be preserved along with its essential role in European security. Today, we look to 2010 with renewed hope.We continue to believe that the future of CFE and the principles which it embodies depend on the compliance and cooperation of all CFE Parties. At present, twenty-nine States Parties continue to participate faithfully in inspections and information exchanges, to the mutual security benefit of all. At the same time, Russia's suspension of inspections and information exchanges under the treaty is widening a significant gap in predictability and transparency. We urge Russia to return to compliance and reverse this situation. If Russia does not, it could make it difficult to provide information to Russia in the future as stated in paragraph 13 of the December 2009 statement by Foreign Ministers of the North Atlantic Council. The United States of America, again, calls on the Russian Federation to meet its CFE Treaty obligations fully, and in so doing, return to Europe the predictability and transparency that continues to erode. Full compliance of all parties will significantly contribute to the security and stability of Europe. A decision by Russia to return to full compliance would set a productive tone as we intensify our efforts during 2010 to preserve the benefits of the landmark CFE regime. Just as important, it would demonstrate commitment to the principles that bring us to this forum and to cooperative approaches to security that reinforce trust and build confidence. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. We ask that this statement be appended to the Journal of STATE 00004441 003 OF 003 the Day. End Text -------------- CLINTON