(U) SUDAN: OIL AND WEALTH SHARING (C-AL9-02300)

S E C R E T STATE 018598 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2035 TAGS: PINR EPET PGOV SU SUBJECT: (U) SUDAN: OIL AND WEALTH SHARING (C-AL9-02300) REF: KHARTOUM 000231 Classified By: ELISSA G. PITTERLE, DIRECTOR, INR/OPS ¶1. (S/REL TO USA, FVEY) WASHINGTON ANALYSTS WOULD LIKE TO COMMEND POST FOR REF, WHICH PROVIDES DETAILED INFORMATION ON SUDAN'S PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE OIL PRODUCTION IN THE COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT TEN YEARS. THE ACCOMPANYING DOCUMENT, WHICH BROKE DOWN EXPECTED OIL PRODUCTION BY BLOCK, HELPED INFORM ANALYSTS' JUDGMENTS ABOUT SUDAN'S FUTURE REVENUE PICTURE. REF HAS BEEN CITED IN SEVERAL WRITTEN PRODUCTS ON SUDAN DELIVERED TO HIGH-LEVEL US POLICYMAKERS. ¶2. (S/REL TO USA, FVEY) WE REMAIN INTERESTED IN ANY ONGOING PLANS TO DETERMINE A WEALTH-SHARING AGREEMENT FOR THE POST-2011 PERIOD, GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CONFLICT IF BOTH SIDES DISAGREE. AS TIME AND RESOURCES PERMIT, WE WOULD GREATLY APPRECIATE REPORTING ON ANY PROGRESS BEING MADE IN WEALTH-SHARING NEGOTIATIONS AND ANY CONTINGENCY MEASURES THAT MIGHT BE IN PLACE IN THE EVENT THAT AN AGREEMENT IS NOT REACHED, SUCH AS THE FOLLOWING: ¶A. (S/REL TO USA, FVEY) WHICH EXTERNAL COUNTRIES HAVE EXPRESSED AN INTEREST IN ENSURING A POST-2011 WEALTH SHARING AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NATIONAL CONGRESS PARTY (NCP) AND THE SUDAN PEOPLE'S LIBERATION MOVEMENT (SPLM)? HAS THERE BEEN ANY ACTIVITY BETWEEN FOREIGN COUNTRIES AND EITHER THE NORTH OR SOUTH IN NEGOTIATING A POST-2011 WEALTH-SHARING DEAL, AND IF SO, WHAT ARE THESE ACTIVITIES? ¶B. (S/REL TO USA, FVEY) WHAT ARE NCP'S PERCEPTIONS AND INDICATIONS OF WILLINGNESS TO COMPROMISE ON OIL SHARING, AND WHAT ARE THEIR RED LINES FOR A POSSIBLE DEAL? WHAT CONTINGENCY MEASURES MIGHT THEY HAVE TO CONTROL MILITARILY THE OIL FIELDS IN THE EVENT OF HOSTILITIES OR FOLLOWING SOUTHERN SECESSION? ¶C. (S/REL TO USA, FVEY) WHAT ARE SPLM'S PERCEPTIONS AND INDICATIONS OF WILLINGNESS TO COMPROMISE ON OIL SHARING, AND WHAT ARE THEIR RED LINES FOR A POSSIBLE DEAL? WHAT CONTINGENCY MEASURES MIGHT THEY HAVE TO CONTROL MILITARILY THE OIL FIELDS IN THE EVENT OF HOSTILITIES OR FOLLOWING SOUTHERN SECESSION? ¶D. (S/REL TO USA, FVEY) PLEASE DESCRIBE ANY DISAGREEMENTS AMONG SPLM LEADERS ABOUT WHETHER TO WORK WITH THE NORTH ON A POST-2011 OIL SHARING DEAL OR INSTEAD TO CLAIM OWNERSHIP OF SOUTHERN OIL FIELDS? ¶E. (S/REL TO USA, FVEY) WHAT ARE THE NORTH'S PERCEPTIONS OF THE STATUS OF CUSTOMS, TAXES, AND FOREIGN RESERVE TRANSACTIONS WITH THE BANK OF SOUTHERN SUDAN? ¶F. (S/REL TO USA, FVEY) WHAT ARE THE SOUTH'S PERCEPTIONS OF THE STATUS OF CUSTOMS, TAXES, AND FOREIGN RESERVE TRANSACTIONS WITH THE BANK OF SUDAN? ¶G. (S/REL TO USA, FVEY) HOW SERIOUSLY ARE SOUTHERNERS PURSUING AN ALTERNATE PIPELINE THROUGH KENYA, AND WHAT ARE THE COST AND TIME PROJECTIONS FOR SUCH A PROJECT? WHAT IS KHARTOUM'S POSITION ON SUCH A PROPOSAL? ¶3. (U) PLEASE CITE C-AL9-02300 IN THE SUBJECT LINE OF REPORTING IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE QUESTIONS. CLINTON