SINGAPORE TAKES NOTICE AS CHINA BECOMES MORE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SINGAPORE 000166 SIPDIS EAP/MTS - M. COPPOLA, STATE ALSO FOR EAP/CM E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2020 TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON EFIN CN SN SUBJECT: SINGAPORE TAKES NOTICE AS CHINA BECOMES MORE ASSERTIVE Classified By: CDA DANIEL SHIELDS FOR REASONS 1.4 (B +D) ¶1. (C) Summary: A recent editorial about tensions in U.S.- China relations in the Government-influenced Straits Times was intended to curry favor with a more assertive China, Singapore analysts told PolChief. China has emerged from the economic crisis emboldened and will likely follow through on its threat to enact some sort of sanctions against U.S. companies, analysts said. Singapore hopes the United States will not back down in the face of Chinese pressure because that would encourage China to become increasingly assertive in its dealings with other countries on issues such as its claims in the South China Sea. However, Singapore also fears a continued escalation of tensions between the United States and China, which Singapore believes would only be bad for the region, analysts said. End Summary. The Unabashedly Pro-China Editorial -------------- ¶2. (C) The Government-influenced Straits Times newspaper published a slew of articles during the week of February 8th concerning recent tensions between the United States and China. While most of the articles presented a balanced assessment of the reasons for tensions and postulated that they would likely blow over soon, one editorial put the blame for the rise in tensions squarely on the United States. The editorial stated that the recently announced U.S. arms sales to Taiwan were "ill-conceived, almost provacative...and that it is not credible to expect Chinese support or acquiescence in denying Iran a nuclear capability if it is at the expense of China's old linkages with Tehran." ¶3. (C) Straits Times Senior Writer William Choong told PolChief that an editorial such as this with no byline is considered the official position of the newspaper, and that the paper's Senior Editor is responsible for vetting its content and message. Articles in the Straits Times, including unattributed editorials, generally support the Government of Singapore's position on issues. "The article does not represent Singapore's view on China, but it does represent some in Singapore's view," Choong said. Acknowledging that most of the articles on the issue (including his own) did not take a "pro-China" stance, Choong suggested that the reason the newspaper put out this kind of editorial was to acknowledge an emerging view in Singapore of a more assertive China and the subsequent need for more "balanced" reporting on China issues. Choong said that as an experiment that he would try to write a more pro-U.S. editorial and see if the Senior Editor would allow it to be published. The Rise and Influence of China's Bloggers -------------- ¶4. (C) Singapore was surprised by the vociferous negative reaction of China's blogger community to remarks made by Singapore Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew during an April 2009 visit to the United States in which he said the United States should maintain a robust presence in Asia in order to balance a rising China, East Asia Institute Professor Lye Liang Fook told Polchief. Given the blogger community's negative reaction, the GOS was grateful that the Government of China did not also publicly criticize LKY's comments, Lye said. Recounting the downturn in Singapore-China relations brought about by the Government of China's negative response to then Deputy Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's visit to Taiwan in 2004, Lye said Singapore is beginning to conclude that it needs to tread more carefully on issues that China considers part of its core interests. The rise of China's blogger community and Beijing's perceived need to pander to an increasingly nationalistic domestic audience mean it is unlikely that Beijing would again turn a blind eye to comments it perceived to be anti-China, Lye said. China More Assertive -------------- ¶5. (C) While China has always wanted the United States to be more sensitive to and respectful of its core interests, such as Taiwan and Tibet, China feels it is now in a stronger position to change the traditional calculus in its relations with the United States, Lye said. China wants to let the United States know that it now has the ability to impose tangible penalties, he said. Lye speculated that China would go through with its threat to enact at least some form of SINGAPORE 00000166 002 OF 002 sanctions against U.S. companies, even temporarily, if only to allow it to ease tensions by eventually removing the sanctions. ¶6. (C) Singapore has noted the change in China's attitude and is closely watching developments in U.S.-China relations, said Lye. Despite China's new assertiveness, Singapore hopes that the United States will not back down, by putting off a meeting with the Dali Lama, for example, as that would only embolden China in other areas, Lye said. Singapore is concerned that if China's new assertiveness causes the United States to back down, China might take a harder edge in its dealings with individual ASEAN countries, especially in its effort to press its claims in the South China Sea. Lye added, however, that Singapore hopes the United States can protect its interests without further escalating tensions, which he believed would be bad for the region and for Singapore. SHIELDS Visit Embassy Singapore's Classified website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/singapore/ind ex.cfm