FINANCIAL SECTOR BUBBLES STILL CONTAINED, SAY EAST CHINA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 SHANGHAI 000034 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/CM NSC FOR MEDEIROS, LOI, SHRIER STATE PASS USTR FOR STRATFORD/WINTER/MCCARTIN/KATZ/MAIN USDOC FOR ITA DAS KASOFF, MELCHER, SZYMANSKI, MAC/OCEA TREASURY FOR OASIA/INA -- DOHNER/HAARSAGER/WINSHIP TREASURY FOR IMFP -- SOBEL/CUSHMAN STATE PASS CEA FOR BLOCK STATE PASS CFTC FOR OIA/GORLICK MANILA FOR ADB USED PARIS FOR US/OECD E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN EINV PGOV CH SUBJECT: FINANCIAL SECTOR BUBBLES STILL CONTAINED, SAY EAST CHINA CONTACTS ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Chinese policymakers are taking only moderate steps to dial back the financial system and deflate any incipient asset bubbles, according to East China financial sector contacts. There is a good chance that the pace of financial sector liberalization will pick up this year, starting with the launch of stock market index futures and other simple derivates in the first quarter. However, problems could emerge over the medium term, as China's financial system is misallocating capital to the state sector. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Visiting Economic Minister Counselor William Weinstein met with Shanghai-based contacts on China's stock market and securities industry on January 19-20. These included Peter Alexander, Principal of Z-Ben Advisors, Steve Lee, Chief Executive Officer, HSBC Jintrust Fund Management Company, and Gao Feng, Executive Director, Deutsche Bank (China). =========================================== Asset Bubbles Forming, But Not Overwhelming =========================================== ¶3. (SBU) Chinese policymakers and market players are debating the extent to which bubbles exist in China's financial sector as a result of economic stimulus funds being siphoned off into the stock market and real estate sector, said Gao. Nonetheless, he said, the bubble in the residential property market, for instance, is not that worrisome, since Chinese households are not as leveraged as U.S. households were. Alexander was dismissive of the recent claim by short-seller Jim Chanos of the hedge fund Kynikos Associates that "China is Dubai times 1,000." Naysayers like Chanos cannot understand the Chinese government's ability to channel resources into economic growth, said Alexander. ¶4. (SBU) Both Gao and Alexander, though, said inefficient financial market operations could lead to future problems. China's recently inaugurated small-cap, high-growth stock market, Chinext, is "an accident waiting to happen," said Alexander, because getting listed is all about the company's relationship with the stock underwriters. Gao pointed to misallocation of resources to local government development agencies, where debts have reached RMB6-7 trillion (approximately US$880 million to US$1 trillion),although he noted this is still only around 10 percent of deposits in the banking system. ¶5. (SBU) More worrying for Gao, China appears to be financing itself into a form of "state capitalism." Thus, even though household consumption is up, it is state-owned enterprises that monopolize earnings and have "hijacked policy," said Gao. Lee offered a more hopeful outlook, predicting that China's equity markets, with a current market capitalization of US$3.5 trillion, would double within the next five to ten years as foreigners gain greater access, Chinese household move their savings into the market, and Chinese companies are privatized through market listings. Alexander was also hopeful that domestic consumption will take off, noting that young people's consumption is very high once they are assured of steady income. ================================== Government Response Limited So Far ================================== ¶6. (SBU) The Chinese Government response to the potential SHANGHAI 00000034 002 OF 004 financial system bubbles has been moderate so far, our contacts agreed. In the stock market, authorities are more concerned to reduce the volatility of trading, rather than targeting a lower overall market valuation, said Alexander. Similarly in real estate, said Gao, government policy is to allow speculation on the high end of the market, while keeping price rises down on the middle and low end by increasing the supply of affordable housing -- even though at present the local authorities have fallen far behind their affordable housing construction targets. Gao suggested that the government would be slow to introduce a property tax, since it would be difficult to implement and therefore would not reduce speculation. ¶7. (SBU) The government is reducing its maneuvering room by approaching the potential asset bubbles from a political angle rather than an economic one, said Gao. For example, the renminbi exchange rate has "definitely created an imbalance," said Gao, but Chinese authorities do not want to be seen as caving into international pressure by removing the peg. Therefore, China has lost control of its monetary policy and officials are not able to raise interest rates without attracting hot money, especially given low rates around the globe, said Gao. Alexander said that this has forced Chinese authorities to wait for the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank to first raise interest rates, even though inflation trumps unemployment as a concern. ================================== 2009 an Off Year for Fund Managers ================================== ¶8. (SBU) Managed funds experienced a net outflow of investors in 2009 as they cashed out of funds that had regained their breakeven value, buoyed by the stock market rise, said Lee. While the market surge in the first nine months meant that the total assets under management of the funds industry reached US$2.6 trillion by year end, up from US$2 trillion at the beginning of the year, nonetheless the number of fund units held by investors declined, he said. For the most part, said Lee, retail investors still remain on the sidelines. However, HSBC Jintrust did not see a net outflow in 2009, because it had taken a hit from investors the previous year: HSBC Jintrust products were doing well in 2008 when other funds fell below their breakeven point, so investors redeemed their HSBC Jintrust products to provide liquidity as they waited for the underwater funds to rise again. ¶9. (SBU) Despite their difficulties holding onto investors in 2009, Alexander said fund management in China is a lucrative business because the government has mandated a 1.5 percent management fee. The government did not do this only to assure profits, but also because if the firms were allowed to set their own fees they would compete for customers by lowering the management fees and "half the managers would disappear," creating disruption for retail investors, said Alexander. ============================================= ===== CIC Continues to Emphasize Passive Fund Management ============================================= ===== ¶10. (SBU) China Investment Corporation (CIC) -- China's sovereign wealth fund established in 2007 -- has been "working as hard as it can not to buy U.S. bonds," said Alexander. Of the total US$300 billion CIC manages, an additional US$60 billion has been allocated to a variety of fund managers since SHANGHAI 00000034 003 OF 004 June, with half of this going into passive investments, such as funds that track the S&P 500, he said. Alexander has heard that CIC could get an additional US$200 billion from China's foreign exchange reserves this year, making it one of the world's largest sovereign wealth funds, but he believes that CIC's portfolio will not exceed 15 percent in direct equity. ¶11. (SBU) CIC President Gao Xiqing leads the process for choosing fund managers, said Alexander, as compared with CIC Chairman Lou Jiwei, who focuses on CIC's direct investments in companies. Alexander said that CIC's Gao had been hoping to retire as vice chairman of the National Social Security Fund, where he had built a reputation as preferring conservative, transparent management of the assets through outside fund managers. This reputation was why Gao was selected for the CIC position, but Gao's strategy had led to disagreements with Lou, said Alexander, until the present split of duties was arranged. Gao's advocacy of openness also appears to be diluted -- on the one hand Alexander says CIC "wants to be like the Norwegians," but on the other he admits the first annual report (for 2008) was "a joke" and that he is hoping for increased disclosure in the 2009 report. ============================================= ======== Expecting Progress on Financial Market Liberalization ============================================= ======== ¶12. (SBU) The year 2010 will see many new steps to liberalize the financial services sector, said Alexander, because officials pushing for changes want to launch them before 2011, when politics in advance of the 2012 leadership change will stifle any further moves. Both Alexander and Gao pointed to the launch of stock market index futures trading, which Gao said should start by the end of the first quarter; even before that, said Gao, he expects trials for short selling and margin trading, which are stepping stones for trading of stock index futures. (Note: On January 8, Chinese media reported that the State Council has endorsed in principle the launch of stock index futures, with regulators suggesting final preparations could take three months. End note.) Hu Jintao's January 15 visit to Shanghai was significant in demonstrating support for the development of Shanghai as an international financial center, said Lee, since one of Hu's stops was the offices of China UnionPay -- which holds a monopoly in the domestic credit card business -- where he urged the company to increase its international presence. ¶13. (SBU) Trusts will probably remain on the forefront of financial product innovation this year, said Alexander. A great deal of money is flowing into trusts, he said, and trusts are "filling in the gaps" of the financial system, creating real estate investment trust (REIT) vehicles, investing in infrastructure, and more riskier financing, such as mezzanine financing, which offers holders less rights in case of a bankruptcy. ======= Comment ======= ¶14. (SBU) Shanghai financial sector players remain sanguine that financial markets are not overshooting in the wake of 2009's record surge in bank lending, and that Beijing will therefore not be tempted to take blunt administrative measures SHANGHAI 00000034 004 OF 004 to shut down speculation. There is some support for this theory in both the stock market, which has remained mostly flat since its selloff in August 2009, and the real estate market, in which trading volume has dropped off following the end of favorable tax and mortgage policies at the end of last year. However, Chinese media is widely reporting strong lending growth by banks in the first two weeks of January, along with rumors that Chinese regulators have shut down lending by some banks -- or even required them to retract loans already extended -- for the rest of the month. If the financial system continues to pump credit into the economy, Chinese authorities are more likely to put increasingly strict administrative controls in place than they are to raise interest rates, which would just encourage further hot money inflows. Even this may not be soon enough, though, should a further stock market slump or a drop in housing prices cause consumers to pull back in a "double dip" economic slowdown. ¶15. (SBU) EconMinCoun has cleared on this cable. CAMP