SHANGHAI FOCUSES ON EXPO AFTER YEAR OF "UNPRECEDENTED"

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 SHANGHAI 000028 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/CM DEPT ALSO FOR EAP/PD -JGALT NSC FOR MEDEIROS, LOI, SHRIER STATE PASS USTR FOR STRATFORD/WINTER/MCCARTIN/KATZ/MAIN USDOC FOR ITA DAS KASOFF, MELCHER, SZYMANSKI, MAC/OCEA TREASURY FOR OASIA/INA -- DOHNER/HAARSAGER/WINSHIP TREASURY FOR IMFP -- SOBEL/CUSHMAN STATE PASS CEA FOR BLOCK STATE PASS CFTC FOR OIA/GORLICK MANILA FOR ADB USED E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ECON SOCI CH SUBJECT: SHANGHAI FOCUSES ON EXPO AFTER YEAR OF "UNPRECEDENTED" ECONOMIC CHALLENGES REF: 09 SHANGHAI 25 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Managing the upcoming World Expo -- with particular attention to security -- formed the centerpiece of Shanghai Mayor Han Zheng's work report to the January 26 opening of the annual session of the Municipal People's Congress. Han did his best to stress Shanghai's 2009 achievements despite the fact the municipality posted its lowest rate of economic growth in nearly two decades. Somewhat surprisingly, both Han's speech and the report delivered the previous day by the vice chairman of Shanghai's People's Political Consultative Congress largely avoided discussion of high housing and real estate prices, the issue of main concern to Shanghai residents. Despite the reiteration of support for various economic and administrative reforms, Han's remarks, combined with the municipal leadership's understandable preoccupation with the Expo, suggests Shanghai's leaders will opt for caution with respect to any policy initiatives, at least over the coming year. End summary. -------------- -------------- Review of 2009: Accentuate the Positive (Forget About the Negative...) -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In his work report to the January 26 opening of the Municipal People's Congress, Mayor Han Zheng put a positive spin on the achievements of 2009, a year in which the local economy faced problems "unprecedented" over the past two decades. According to Han, Shanghai posted a GDP growth rate of 8.2 percent in 2009 -- a figure below the municipality's nine percent growth target and the lowest result since 1991. Nevertheless, fiscal revenue increased 7.7 percent, exceeding the target of six percent by nearly two percentage points despite the slowdown in GDP growth. Fixed asset investment rose 9.2 percent, and retail sales increased 14 percent over the 2008 total. In contrast, the consumer price index for the year declined 0.4 percent. Urban and rural income both grew about eight percent, still quite positive but substantially slower than the double digit increases realized in 2008. ¶3. (SBU) Although Han observed that exports and imports passing through the Shanghai customs area continued to account for about a quarter of China's total trade in 2009, he avoided noting that the overall trade volume had fallen by 15 percent in comparison to 2008. Utilized foreign investment in 2009 totaled USD 10.54 billion, a relatively small increase of 4.5 percent of the previous year. Han acknowledged Central Government approval of the plan to build a Disney theme park in Shanghai among the municipality's achievements in 2009. ¶4. (SBU) Surprisingly, Han made only brief reference to some high-profile economic issues of the past year. The official unemployment rate for 2009 was 4.3 percent -- below the targeted ceiling of 4.5 percent -- although the contribution of non-state firms to municipal GDP showed only a marginal increase, rising from 46 percent in 2008 to 47 percent in 2009. Efforts to move SHANGHAI 00000028 002 OF 005 Shanghai from an industrial to a service-based economy were more successful as the proportion of services in municipal GDP expanded to 59 percent from 53 percent a year earlier. According to Han, employment of university graduates, a prominent element in the 2009 work report, "was not lower than in past years." Similarly, problems in housing, product safety, religious, minority affairs, and foreign affairs work received only cursory attention in the Mayor's work report. -------------- --- Ensuring "Safe and Orderly" Expo Tops 2010 Goals -------------- --- ¶5. (SBU) As expected, the upcoming World Expo was the centerpiece of the municipal government's work program for 2010, with "safe and orderly" (anquan youxu) as the main adjectives. (Discussion of the Expo and the various projects tied to it accounted for about five pages of Han's 40-page report.) The mayor outlined measures such as increased food and product quality monitoring, strengthened traffic control, and periodic safety inspections of areas frequented by large numbers of visitors. He also announced the establishment of a "safety and stability responsibility system" for Shanghai's residential districts indicating lower level leaders will be held accountable for problems in their jurisdictions that could disrupt the smooth operation of the Expo. ¶6. (SBU) Apart from security, providing "service" to visitors occupied most of Han's Expo discussion in the report. Acknowledging the Expo as a chance to increase Shanghai's international influence and attractiveness, Han promised improved public transportation, signage, public hygiene, and overall "urban management." (Comment: The end of the section on the Expo in the Chinese text of Han's report finished with an exclamation point, indicating it should be an applause line. However, the mayor read the text with no additional emphasis, and the assembled delegates were silent as he moved on to the next section of his report. End comment.) ¶7. (SBU) The economic targets for 2010 announced by Mayor Han remain largely consistent with those of 2009. Han announced GDP and fiscal revenue growth targets of eight percent each. The official ceiling for unemployment remains at 4.5 percent. Han revealed no targets, however, for fixed asset investment or retail sales. Urban and rural incomes are set simply to "maintain steady growth." ¶8. (SBU) The other main economic tasks for 2010 as listed in Han's report centered on: -- Following up the State Council decision to promote Shanghai's development as an international financial and transportation center; SHANGHAI 00000028 003 OF 005 -- Continuing to build the municipality's capacity for "indigenous innovation"; -- Strengthening resource-use and environmental protection; -- Further integrating Shanghai's urban and rural areas particularly through the development of suburban "new towns"; -- Deepening economic reform, particularly through "experiments" underway in the enlarged Pudong New District; and -- Expanding Shanghai's openness to trade and investment both from overseas and from within China. (Comment: Han spent a surprising amount of time in the report discussing efforts to improve rural welfare in Shanghai, an odd emphasis as the municipality's agricultural population accounts for less than 10 percent of total residents. End comment.) -------------- -------------- Employment, Not Housing, Remains Social Development Priority -------------- -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Following the same ranking as in 2009, Shanghai's social development priorities as outlined by Han put expanding employment in the top position, followed by health and old age insurance, and, finally, housing. Although Han acknowledged the problems many Shanghai residents have in finding affordable housing and promised to continue to expand the housing supply, he made no comment on the large jump in real estate prices during 2009. -------------- -------------- Political Reform Section Mostly Covers Old Ground -------------- -------------- ¶10. (SBU) The work report's final section, which focused on strengthening governance, called for simplification of the administrative approval process, greater transparency in regulation and decision-making, more effective provision of government services, stricter adherence by officials to the law in their work, and stronger measures against corruption, including through greater public supervision. The only new content in this section of Han's report centered on simplifying the administrative approval process, which indicated additional authority may be devolved from the municipal government to Shanghai's district and county authorities. All the other items largely mirrored the content of the 2009 work report. SHANGHAI 00000028 004 OF 005 -------------- -------------- Consultative Conference Session Highlights Role in Maintaining Stability -------------- -------------- ¶11. (SBU) The annual session of the Shanghai committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), which opened January 25, foreshadowed many of the same themes found in Mayor Han's work report to the Municipal People's Congress the following day. With regard to the Shanghai Expo, Shanghai CPPCC Vice Chairman Zhou Taitong specifically focused in his report on security and "maintaining public order" during the six-month-long event. He expressed concern about ensuring safe shipment of goods, protecting VIP visitors, maintaining orderly traffic flow, and ensuring food safety during the Expo. Organizing an event that would reflect well on Shanghai and promote economic development in the Yangtze River Delta region was a secondary consideration in the report. ¶12. (SBU) Speaking on Shanghai's 2010 economic development objectives, Zhou offered little specificity and focused primarily on prospects for the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015), which will be crafted during 2010. He stressed many of the same themes as the current 11th Five-Year Plan -- economic rebalancing, resource demands, the rich-poor gap, economic transformation, etc. -- as continuing to be important in the near-term. (Comment: Like Han, Zhou avoided any discussion of rising housing prices, which have attracted a great deal of public attention in Shanghai in recent months. End comment.) One CPPCC member who works for a multinational corporation told PolOff that Zhou's report included "nothing new" on the economy. He complained that the Shanghai CPPCC Committee leadership was not "innovative enough" in its approach to economic reform in ¶2010. The businessman said he plans to raise the issue in the CPPCC's small group meetings during the week. ¶13. (SBU) Recapping the events of 2009, Zhou stressed the CPPCC's role in offering policy recommendations on both the Shanghai Expo and economic development with the latter being especially challenging in the midst of the global financial crisis. He also highlighted the local CPPCC's efforts to engage Shanghai's minority community following the July 5 ethnic unrest in Urumqi, the capital of the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region, notably through an open letter from CPPCC members representing minority and religious groups calling for public resistance to efforts to "split the Motherland." -------------- Some Things Better Left Unsaid -------------- SHANGHAI 00000028 005 OF 005 ¶14. (SBU) Comment: Mayor Han's work report confirmed that Shanghai turned in a respectable but historically subpar economic performance in 2009. Although Shanghai's ambitions to become a major international city are strong, they have been expressed to date largely in concrete and steel. Measures called for in the work report for a more efficient, transparent, service-oriented, law-abiding, and honest administration are fundamentally needed to establish Shanghai as one of the world's leading financial and commercial centers. As Shanghai steps into the spotlight with the biggest world's fair in history, however, Han's primary declared mission of delivering a "safe and orderly" Expo suggests such reforms are likely to take a backseat to maintaining the current level of control over the municipality's society and economy. End comment. CAMP