Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
10SEOUL175
2010-02-05 08:25:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Seoul
Cable title:  

SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; FEBRUARY 5, 2010

Tags:  PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US 
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 09 SEOUL 000175 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; FEBRUARY 5, 2010 TOP HEADLINES -------------- Chosun Ilbo U.S. Proposes Joint Exercises with ROK in Preparation against Possible Emergency in North Korea JoongAng Ilbo U.S. Already Aware of Toyota's Accelerator Defects Three Years Ago Dong-a Ilbo Half of Left-wing Teachers Union Leaders Summoned by Police due to Their Alleged Involvement in Democratic Labor Party Activity Hankook Ilbo, Segye Ilbo Obama to Get Tough with China Currency Hankyoreh Shinmun Grand National Party Split by Conflicts over Sejong City Project Seoul Shinmun 11 Senior Officials from Seoul City's Education Organizations Resign DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS -------------- At a February 3 hearing of the House Armed Services Committee, U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said that in case of an emergency situation in North Korea, the U.S. may not be able to get the required Army ground units into the ROK in time due to the U.S.'s heavy commitment in Iraq and Afghanistan. (Chosun, JoongAng, Dong-a, Seoul, Segye) In a related development, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Michael Mullen said that the U.S., however, will be able to send extra ground troops to the ROK in time after the completion of the proposed drawdown of U.S. troops in Iraq in 2011. (Chosun, Dong-a, Seoul, Segye) According to an ROK diplomatic source, in his February 4 meeting with Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell expressed his surprise that his remarks that the U.S. is taking the ROK's concern about the planned transfer of wartime operational control seriously were seen as a possible review of the wartime command transfer. (JoongAng, Hankyoreh) The ROKG source said that Campbell meant to say merely that he listened carefully to Defense Minister Kim Tae-young who had expressed concern over the issue earlier. (JoongAng) After his February 4 meeting with Unification Minister Hyun In-taek, Assistant Secretary Campbell said that the ROK and the U.S. have agreed that they will have to coordinate opinions on a possible inter-Korean summit and the Six-Party Talks. He said that the U.S. position is to support the ROK's foreign policy framework. (Dong-a, Hankook, Hankyoreh) On February 3, Campbell said that the main goal is resuming the Six-Party Talk
s, leading to some speculation that Washington might not be in favor of an inter-Korean summit prior to the North's return to the multilateral dialogue. (Hankook, Hankyoreh) According to a February 4 report by Japan's Asahi Shimbun, the ROK and North Korea agreed to the timetable of the inter-Korean summit during their behind-the-scenes contact in Singapore last year but the summit did not occur due to their disagreements over the agenda of the summit. (JoongAng, Seoul) According to an ROKG source, North Korea on February 4 unilaterally SEOUL 00000175 002 OF 009 designated five regions along the eastern and western maritime borders with the ROK as naval firing zones. (Hankook, Seoul) INTERNATIONAL NEWS -------------- U.S. President Barack Obama said on February 3 that he will not re-list North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism. (Chosun, Hankyoreh, Segye) MEDIA ANALYSIS -------------- -Korea: A/S Campbell visit to region -------------- Most ROK media covered Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell's February 4 meetings with Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan and Unification Minister Hyun In-taek in Seoul. Right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo and Left-leaning Hankyoreh Shinmun commented that Assistant Secretary Campbell's February 3 remarks that the U.S. is taking the ROK's concern about the planned transfer of wartime operational control created a stir in the ROK. The newspapers quoted an ROK official as saying that, in his February 4 meeting with Foreign Minister Yu, Campbell expressed his surprise at the media coverage of his words and meant to say merely that he was fully aware of various opinions on the issue. According to media reports, after his meeting with Unification Minister Hyun In-taek, Assistant Secretary Campbell said that the ROK and the U.S. have agreed that they will have to coordinate opinions on a possible inter-Korean summit and the Six-Party Talks. Hankyoreh Shinmun noted that Campbell's February 3 remark that the main goal is resuming the Six-Party Talks sparked some speculation that the U.S. might not be in favor of an inter-Korean summit prior to the North's return to the Six-Party Talks. The newspaper went on to say that that some observers see this as indicating that the ROK and the U.S. are trying to gain the upper hand in negotiations on the North Korean issue. -North Korea -------------- Most ROK media covered North Korea's announcement that it will release U.S. religious activist Robert Park, who reportedly entered the country illegally in an attempt to raise awareness about Pyongyang's human rights abuses. According to media reports, the state KCNA news agency said, "The relevant organ of the DPRK (North Korea) decided to leniently forgive and release him, taking his admission and sincere repentance of his wrong doings into consideration." Most ROK media widely quoted U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates' as saying at a February 3 hearing of the House Armed Services Committee that in case of an emergency situation in North Korea, the U.S. may not be able to get additional U.S. ground forces into the ROK in time due to the U.S.'s heavy commitment in Iraq and Afghanistan. Dong-a Ilbo observed in an editorial: "North Korea is attempting to set up a development bank to attract foreign investment and improve relations with the U.S. in order to circumvent international sanctions against the North. However, unless North Korea gives up its nuclear ambitions, its economic and social turmoil will worsen and international sanctions will not be lifted. ... Whether through an inter-Korean summit or the Six-Party Talks, we should make North Korea realize that it can obtain international assistance and cooperation from the ROK only by renouncing its nuclear weapons program and becoming a normal country through reform. -China-US: currency dispute. -------------- All ROK media gave prominent attention to President Barack Obama's SEOUL 00000175 003 OF 009 remarks that he will get much tougher with China on trade rules, including currency rates to ensure that the U.S. is not put at a huge competitive disadvantage. According to media reports, China dismissed these as wrongful accusations and pressure that will not help to solve the trade issue between the two countries. OPINIONS/EDITORIALS -------------- COOPERATION WITH THE U.S. (Dong-a Ilbo, February 5, 2010, Page 31) North Korea is in turmoil stemming from its currency revaluation of Nov. 30 last year. Before the measure, the price of rice was 20 North Korean won per kilogram, but this has gone up to 400 to 600 won. The value of the North's new currency has fallen from 30 won per U.S. dollar to 500 won. With the number of people dying from hunger increasing, brawls between police and residents and murder are taking place. The dire situation is apparently threatening the stability of the communist regime, with the North Korean people calling their leader Kim Jong-il without the honorific title "Dear Leader." Pyongyang reportedly fired its top finance official Pak Nam-ki over the economic debacle caused by the currency revaluation. Such a step is insufficient, however, to allay the anger of the North Korean people. In this sense, South Korea should raise its guard against the possibility of a contingency caused by the North stemming from its crisis and military provocations against the South to distract North Koreans from their troubled economy. More than anything, cooperation between Seoul and Washington is needed to immediately respond militarily and politically to a contingency in Pyongyang. North Korea has made reconciliatory gestures by receiving corn from South Korea and proposing bilateral dialogue, yet has (also) raised tension by shooting artillery shells near the western inter-Korean maritime border. U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Wednesday that if an emergency erupts on the Korean Peninsula, deployment of U.S. ground forces to South Korea will be delayed because of Washington's commitments in Afghanistan and Iraq. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said the U.S. is taking seriously South Korean concerns over the transfer of wartime operational command from Washington to Seoul in 2012. Yet it is unknown how seriously the U.S. is reviewing this. If a problem happens in the first 60 to 70 days after a war breaks out, this could lead to dire consequences. The North is apparently trying to overcome its economic crisis by securing foreign currency through wage hikes for North Korean workers at the Kaesong industrial complex and the resumption of South Korean tours to Mount Kumgang and Kaesong. North Korea is attempting to set up a development bank to attract foreign investment and improve relations with the U.S. in order to circumvent international sanctions against the North. However, unless North Korea gives up its nuclear ambitions, its economic and social turmoil will worsen and international sanctions will not be lifted. In the event of an inter-Korean summit, the Lee Myung-bak Administration must not repeat the mistake of the previous Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun governments. The first two summits helped North Korea avert crisis without giving up its nuclear program. Whether through an inter-Korean summit or the Six-Party Talks, we should make North Korea realize that it can obtain international assistance and cooperation from the ROK only by renouncing its nuclear weapons program and becoming a normal country through reform. Close cooperation between South Korea and the U.S. is also crucial in this process. (This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is identical to the Korean version.) SEOUL 00000175 004 OF 009 WE SHOULD NOT TRADE OPCON TRANSFER ISSUE FOR (OTHER) DEMANDS FROM THE U.S. (Segye Ilbo, February 5, Page 34: Excerpts) It seems desirable to delay the planned transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON). We need to reconsider transferring wartime operational control from the U.S. to the ROK as scheduled in a situation where the North has been ramping up tensions on the Korean Peninsula by staging nuclear tests and missile launches. If the U.S. Forces in Korea (USFK) are withdrawn from the ROK and additional U.S. ground forces could not be deployed in time in case of an emergency situation, it will pose a grave threat to the security of the Korean Peninsula. However, we may have to pay for it if we overly insist on postponing the timing of the transfer of OPCON. The U.S. Department of Defense floated the idea of the ROK's participation in the Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) system. U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said yesterday that additional U.S. ground troops may not be able to arrive in the ROK in time in case of an emergency on the Korean Peninsula. In addition, the U.S. may demand that the ROK purchase expensive weapons from the country. The ROKG should comprehensively review the issue of OPCON transfer from the perspective of security and national interest. We should not give an impression (to the U.S.) that we are in such a hurry to delay the timing of the transfer of OPCON because this may put us in the position (where we have) to accept other demands from the U.S. The Korean Peninsula should not be a "security market" for the U.S. THERE SHOULD BE NO GIVE AND TAKE ON OPCON TRANSFER (Seoul Shinmun, February 5, 2010, Page 31; Excerpts) USFK's overseas deployment, the ROK's participation in the Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD),and the transfer of wartime operational control to the ROK are all important issues that would significantly change the security landscape of the Korean Peninsula. The fact that the U.S. administration is publicly mentioning these issues almost at the same time raises speculation that Washington may have completed its review of its security strategy toward the Korean Peninsula looking forward three or four years and is now sounding out the ROK's intention. To put it more directly, there is a suspicion that the U.S. may draw on the ROK society's concerns over the OPCON transfer and USFK's possible overseas deployment to pressure the ROK to join the BMD. U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Michele Flournoy's mention of "appropriate burden-sharing with allies" also bolsters this suspicion. No matter what intention the U.S. administration may have, the ROK's participation in the BMD requires an enormous (outlay of) 8 to 10 trillion won and would likely conflict with discussions on the dismantlement of North Korea's nuclear programs and the establishment of a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula. In the sense that the ROK's participation in the BMD could immediately provoke North Korea and China, it is not expected to bring practical benefits to ROK security. We should also take a more cautious approach to USFK's overseas deployment because it will change the nature of USFK from "deterrence against North Korea" to a "U.S. military stronghold in Northeast Asia." Participation in the BMD also runs counter to last year's agreement between the ROKG and the USG that USFK's overseas deployment is a long-term task which should be reviewed with the ROKG's consent. The OPCON transfer should be addressed in a way that minimizes a security vacuum in the ROK-U.S. combined military strength. In order to live up to the 60-year-old history of the ROK-U.S. alliance, we hope that the U.S. administration focuses on dispelling security concerns in some parts of the ROK society, instead of trying to use them. CHANGING SECURITY SITUATION NEEDS URGENT ATTENTION SEOUL 00000175 005 OF 009 (Chosun Ilbo, February 5, 2010, Page 31) U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates told the House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday that U.S. ground forces may not be able to arrive in South Korea in time in case of an emergency in North Korea because of America's heavy commitment in Iraq and Afghanistan. "Certainly, initially, we would be especially dependent on the Navy and the Air Force," he said, but added, "That's not to say they (Army units) wouldn't get there." According to an operational plan for such contingencies, the U.S. is required to dispatch 160 naval vessels, including five air craft carrier squadrons, 2,500 fighter planes and 690,000 Army and Marine troops to the Korean Peninsula within 90 days after a North Korean provocation escalates into a full-fledged war. The aim is to thwart North Korean aggression in the early stages through overwhelming power. This strategy has so far served to deter aggression by North Korea, but the U.S. Defense Secretary publicly admits that it would be difficult to deploy the required numbers. Adm. Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff who also spoke before the House Armed Services Committee, said, "I would only add that, as you look at the time line that you just described - end of '11, Army's out of... Iraq - it's the beginning of reset, really, for the Army in terms of equipment and actually training." That means it would be difficult to deploy large numbers of ground forces to the Korean Peninsula for the next two years. Veteran South Korean soldiers including former defense ministers and chiefs of staff have pointed out that the dismantlement of the Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command following the transfer of full (operational) control of South Korean troops to Seoul in 2012 would make it difficult for Washington to deploy large numbers of soldiers to the peninsula in an emergency. North Korea has 100,000 Special Forces troops, and 70 percent of its 1.17 million strong army has been deployed close to the border with South Korea. Long-range North Korean artillery is stationed along the demilitarized zone, and the North has missiles and chemical and biological weapons capable of hitting targets in South Korea. It has also conducted two nuclear tests. Even though the South may be ahead of the North in terms of fighting power and economic strength, such attributes may prove useless in a short but intense battle resulting from a sudden and unexpected attack by the North. The best defense against North Korean aggression is to thwart such a move from the start, and the second-best option is to gauge the North's moves and deal with it early on by forming a line of resistance. Until now, the CFC has played that role, but everything changes if U.S. ground forces cannot be deployed on time. Is South Korea prepared to deal with these changes to its security situation? Is the South Korean public ready to accept them and willing to live with the heightened anxiety? Are politicians able to set aside their ideological differences and come up with the best option for the security of their country? And is the South Korean government ready to inform the public of the reality and handle the matter as an issue of utmost priority? It is time for the government, politicians and the public to take a close look at their country's security situation and engage in some frank discussions. (This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is identical to the Korean version.) FEATURES -------------- "I NEVER GAVE UP HOPE AND OPPORTUNITIES CAME... I HOPE NORTH KOREAN PEOPLE WOULD KNOW THIS." (Dong-a Ibo, February 5, 2010, Page 27) Lee Ae-ran, the first North Korea female defector to have received a Ph.D., is to receive the Award for International Women of Courage SEOUL 00000175 006 OF 009 from the U.S. State Department. By Yoon Wan-jun Around 1981, a 17 year-old North Korean girl who very much wanted to study was unable to enroll in university because her family came from a "bad class." With the sense of loss she felt, she tried to take her own life by drinking insecticide. During her congratulatory remarks at the 1st International Donor Conference on North Korea held at the Plaza Hotel on February 4, Kathleen Stephens, U.S. Ambassador to Korea, told this North Korean girl's story. "We have breaking news. Dr. Lee Ae-ran will receive the Award for International Women of Courage next month for helping North Korean woman defectors. The State Department gives this award every year to ten outstanding woman leaders around the world. Secretary Hillary Clinton will personally hand out the award. In East Asia, Dr. Lee has been selected." Dr. Lee Ae-ran (46) finally went to college majoring in food engineering in 1985 when the North Korean authorities opened the doors of science and engineering colleges to those from "bad classes." She left North Korea in 1997 with nine members of her family. At the time, her husband was unable to leave. She strenuously studied in South Korea and earned a master's degree. Last year, she was the first North Korean female defector to receive a Ph.D. from a local university (Department of Nutritional Science and Food Management at Ewha Womans University). Starting next month, she will teach in Kyungin Women's College as a professor in the Department of Food Nutrition and Culinary Art. For many years, Dr. Lee has been helping with the rehabilitation programs for North Korean women who were divorced or have autistic children. Last year, she organized "Hana Women's Group" to provide leadership training for North Korean female defectors. And now, she is busy with an effort to establish a social corporation for these female defectors. She has been supporting college students of defector families with scholarships. Last year, she created a fund of 30 million won to provide North Korean adolescents with 100,000 won each month for their private tuition fees. She has been stressing to the students, "As long as you hope, you can live." In a telephone conversation with Donga Ilbo on February 4, she said, "I heard that I will receive the award on March 10. I am surprised and grateful that the U.S. State Department has taken an interest in North Korean female defectors." "I hope that the news that a North Korean female defector is receiving an award will spread throughout North Korea. I want them to know that anyone can have this kind of opportunity if one continues to hope and work hard in a free world. If North Korean people change, that will be helpful to the opening of North Korea." Dr. Lee said that she had heard that Ambassador Stephens had recommended her but did not know that she would actually receive it. Last year, Dr. Lee met Secretary Clinton during her lecture at Ewha Womans University. She also met Robert King, Special Envoy on North Korean Human Rights Issues, who visited Korea last month. Her doctoral thesis is a research on the changes in North Koreans' diet patterns around the year 1990. This March, she will begin teaching at Kyungin Women's College and is now researching ways to globalize Korean cuisine. ASSISTANT SECRETARY CAMPBELL: "(THE ROK, THE U.S.) SHOULD COORDINATE ON INTER-KOREAN SUMMIT AND SIX-PARTY TALKS" (Hankyoreh Shinmun, February 5, 2010, Page 6) By Reporter Lee Yong-in U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs SEOUL 00000175 007 OF 009 Kurt Campbell said after a meeting with Unification Minister Hyun In-taek on February 4, "The ROK and the U.S. agree that an inter-Korean summit and the Six-Party Talks should be sought together. The core of agreement is that both nations will surely have to coordinate with each other in every aspect related to an inter-Korean summit and the Six-Party framework." Regarding the remarks by Assistant Secretary Campbell that emphasized coordination between the ROK and the U.S., some observers speculate that both nations may engage in a subtle tug of war over the sequence of an inter-Korean summit and the Six-Party Talks. Assistant Secretary Campbell also said after meeting with Deputy Minister Lee Yong-joon on February 3, "We support the ROK's efforts toward an (inter-Korean) summit," adding, "However, what is clear is that the necessary next step is North Korea's return to the Six-Party Talks." It can be viewed that, through his remarks, Assistant Secretary Campbell indirectly sent the ROKG a message that, at this stage, the focus should be placed on the resumption of the Six-Party Talks. Indeed, the USG is concentrating its diplomatic efforts on the resumption of the Six-Party Talks while postponing the excavation of the remains of U.S. troops killed in the Korean War and the North Korean National Symphony Orchestra's visit to the U.S. until after the Six-Party Talks restarts. During a regular briefing on February 4, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Kim Young-sun denied any difference between the ROK and the U.S., saying, "There is no difference in position between both sides." However, another ROKG official said, "Even if an inter-Korean summit is held, it would be aimed at making progress on the North Korean nuclear issue. Therefore, it does not matter which talks comes first." This can be interpreted in some way as meaning that (Seoul) will keep open the possibility of an inter-Korean summit before the resumption of the Six-Party Talks. Some observers say that a three-day visit to the White House by Kim Tae-hyo, a presidential aide on foreign affairs and strategies, also aims to coordinate differences between the ROK and the U.S. over an inter-Korean summit. There is also a view that Assistant Secretary Campbell's remarks reveal that a leadership struggle between the ROK and the U.S. has finally emerged to the surface. A foreign policy and security expert said on condition of anonymity, "In Washington, there is a mood of displeasure with the fact that the ROKG first announced proposals for North Korea, such as a grand bargain (package deal), the five-party talks, and the excavation of the remains of ROK soldiers." ASSISTANT SECRETARY CAMPBELL: "THE OPCON TRANSFER WILL PROCEED AS SCHEDULED" (JoongAng Ilbo, February 5, 2010, Page 6) By Reporter Kang Chan-ho Kurt Campbell, visiting U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, set out on February 4 to calm controversy over his February 3 remark that "We have heard the concerns (in the ROK about the transfer of wartime operational control to the ROK military),and we take the concerns seriously." Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Kim Young-sun said that in a meeting with Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan, Assistant Secretary Campbell expressed his surprise at wide media coverage of his words. Assistant Secretary Campbell reportedly said something to the effect that, "I meant to say that I was well aware of some of the concerns in the ROK over the OPCON transfer set for April in 2012, but I was surprised that some media outlets reported that my words hinted at the possibility of a delay in the OPCON transfer." According to a diplomatic source, Assistant Secretary Campbell's remark was intended to show that he had listened carefully to Defense Minister Kim Tae-young, who recently expressed his concern SEOUL 00000175 008 OF 009 over the OPCON transfer. Prior to his visit to Seoul, Assistant Secretary Campbell reportedly heard the news that, in last month's seminar hosted by JoongAng Ilbo, Minister Kim called the OPCON transfer in 2012 the "worst situation" and that the (ROK) President was also concerned about it. In other words, with concerns rising in the ROK, a major U.S. ally, Assistant Secretary Campbell intended to send a message that, as a friend of the ROK, he kept his ears open and "listened carefully." However, the source stressed, "Separately from his remarks, the position of Assistant Secretary Campbell and the U.S. is that the OPCON transfer will proceed as previously agreed." The Assistant Secretary also reportedly told ROKG officials at a February 3 dinner, "I am sorry (to put you to the trouble of explaining my remarks.)" It is reported that Assistant Secretary Campbell, a former scholar, was personally negative about the early transfer of wartime operational control but, after assuming his position, he made it clear that the previous agreement between the ROK and the U.S. should be honored. An ROKG official also noted, "The ROK and the U.S. are in the same position that, at present, there is no situation that changes the timetable for the OPCON transfer." Assistant Secretary Campbell's remark on February 3 that "We support an inter-Korean summit, but what is clear is that the essential next step is North Korea's return to the Six-Party Talks" also caused a delicate stir. This is because it raised speculation that, while coordinating with the U.S. over an inter-Korean summit, the ROKG may be discussing a "way to hold an inter-Korean summit before the resumption of the Six-Party Talks." Spokesperson Kim Young-sun emphasized, however, "(The ROKG) believes that (Assistant Secretary Campbell's remark) is a message to North Korea. It is not appropriate to directly link a summit to the Six-Party Talks." U.S. URGES JOINT DRILL FOR EMERGENCY IN N. KOREA (Chosun Ilbo, February 5, 2010, Front Page) By Reporter Ahn Yong-hyun The Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Commander of the U.S. Forces Korea are proposing to Seoul a joint military exercise in preparation for the collapse of the North Korean regime. The South Korean and U.S. militaries have almost completed an operational plan for what is delicately called a "sudden change" in the North, but they have yet to carry out a joint exercise based on the plan. The Defense Ministry and Joint Chiefs of Staff are reviewing the plan cautiously for fear of further angering the North, which is already on edge amid international sanctions and a currency reform gone disastrously wrong. A government source on Thursday said that, since late last year, one U.S. military leader after another has proposed to the Defense Ministry and the JCS officially or unofficially that a joint military exercise be staged in preparation for the "sudden change." U.S. JCS Chairman Adm. Michael Mullen reportedly made the proposal to his South Korean counterpart Gen. Lee Sang-eui at the bilateral Military Committee Meeting in Seoul in October last year. USFK Commander Gen. Walter Sharp repeated the proposal to senior South Korean military officers in a recent meeting, according to a source. The ministry and the JCS urged caution but agreed there is a need for such an exercise. Military authorities are considering two options. The first envisages staging the drill as inconspicuously as possible as part of one of the existing annual joint exercises. The other is a drill ostensibly for humanitarian relief in case of a massive natural disaster in a hypothetical neighboring state. SEOUL 00000175 009 OF 009 The joint contingency plan, dubbed OPLAN 5029, envisages six scenarios, including civil war caused by a transition of power or a coup after North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's death; theft and sale abroad of so-called weapons of mass destruction by an insurgent army; mass defection; massive natural disaster; and the kidnapping of South Korean citizens in the North. However, this has never been officially confirmed. (This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is identical to the Korean version.) STEPHENS

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