BOSNIA: RADONCIC POISED TO BE A NEW PLAYER IN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 SARAJEVO 000133 / / / C A N C E L / / C A N C E L /// SIPDIS EUR/SCE FOR HYLAND, FOOKS NSC FOR HOVENIER E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/09/2020 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA: RADONCIC POISED TO BE A NEW PLAYER IN BOSNIAK POLITICS REF: A. 06 SARAJEVO 2320 ¶B. 09 SARAJEVO 1139 ¶C. 09 SARAJEVO 226 ¶D. 09 SARAJEVO 103 ¶E. 08 SARAJEVO 1593 ¶F. 09 SARAJEVO 1169 ¶G. SARAJEVO 61 ¶H. SARAJEVO 110 SARAJEVO 00000133 001.2 OF 004 Classified By: Ambassador Charles English for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). Summary -------------- SARAJEVO 00000133 002 OF 004 The Entree into Politics -------------- ¶4. (C) In September 2009, Radoncic launched a new Bosniak political party, the Alliance for a Better Future of BiH (SBB-BiH) (ref B). Radoncic is almost certainly seeking political status in order to secure protection from the investigation of his illegal business deals by wielding government influence over the judiciary. Moreover, now may be a personally appealing time for Radoncic to enter politics, as media outlets besides Avaz indicate that Radoncic's business is struggling and that Avaz's chief rival daily newspaper, Oslobodjenje, is rapidly catching up to Avaz in its sales. This suggests that the pragmatic Radoncic is entering the political scene to seek lucrative deals wherever he can find them, rather than choosing partners based on ideology or even ethnic affiliation. This approach would make him an appealing ally for Republika Srpska (RS) Prime Minister Milorad Dodik, who also dabbles in business and is himself under investigation for corruption. Dodik therefore may see Radoncic as his ideal Bosniak interlocutor. Indeed, Radoncic told the DCM in January that he has met with Dodik, as well as Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ)-BiH President Dragan Covic -- who has been indicted for corruption and is forging a closer relationship with Dodik (septel) -- and has a good relationship with both men. Moreover, the fact that Avaz has kept mostly quiet on the very issue that it could use to galvanize the Bosniak populace ahead of the election -- rhetoric on a referendum in the RS -- has led to speculation that discussions on a partnership between Dodik and Radoncic may already be underway. The Setbacks -------------- ¶5. (S/NF) Despite any possible musings of a deal with Dodik, SBB-BiH appears to be off to a rocky start. Initial polls suggest that the party has a small following, and Radoncic has yet to attract any well-known personalities to join his party. His most notable party member besides himself is former state-level PM and former SDA member Adnan Terzic, although Terzic's following within SDA was tenuous at best when he left the party. The other big name in SBB-BiH is Haris Basic, a former SDA member whom the Council of Ministers suspended as director of the Foreign Investment Promotion Agency (FIPA) due to the BiH Court's indictment against him for illegally issuing transport licenses. Radoncic also has not yet managed to form a founding party congress despite the high attendance at his kickoff rallies in Sarajevo, Tuzla, Zenica, and elsewhere. Also, Radoncic -- whose family is from the Sandzak region in Serbia -- carries a strong "Sandzak" accent when he speaks, which is anathema to many Bosnians. Moreover, he lacks personal charisma and is generally uncomfortable and awkward with interlocutors who are unfamiliar to him. The Weapons -------------- ¶6. (S/NF) Despite these initial setbacks, Radoncic's expectations for electoral success are high. Through public hearings conducted by the BiH parliamentary working group on changes to the election law, Radoncic in January proposed an increase in the threshold for a party's representation in Parliament from three to five percent at the state and entity level. The parliamentary working group on changes to the election law rejected his proposal. Radoncic's most powerful weapon during the elections will be Avaz, and he already is using it as an advertising venue for his party. The economy, a major concern for Bosniak voters, is one of Avaz's key pre-election themes, as well as the incompetence of BiH's current leadership, particularly Bosniak tri-Presidency member Haris Silajdzic. Amid the country-wide economic crisis, these messages may well resonate with apathetic Bosniak voters. Indeed, Terzic told the DCM that this is one of SBB-BiH's key target groups in the election campaign. The SBiH Political Vacuum -------------- ¶7. (C) Radoncic's entree into the Bosniak political scene SARAJEVO 00000133 003.2 OF 004 SARAJEVO 00000133 004.2 OF 004