YEMEN: HOUTHIS SAY THEY AGREE TO CEASEFIRE POINTS,

S E C R E T SANAA 000064 NOFORN SIPDIS FOR NEA/ARP AMACDONALD AND INR JYAPHE E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2020 TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS YM SUBJECT: YEMEN: HOUTHIS SAY THEY AGREE TO CEASEFIRE POINTS, BUT ROYG REMAINS WARY REF: 09 SANAA 2287 Classified By: Ambassador Stephen Seche for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (S) SUMMARY. The Houthi rebels’ January 6 acceptance in writing of the ROYG’s six conditions for a ceasefire, including the cessation of attacks in Saudi Arabia, has thus far been ignored by a Yemeni government determined to end the five-year rebellion once and for all. It is unclear if the Houthis have accepted the ROYG’s conditions because they are feeling pressure from alleged ROYG military successes or other factors entirely, such as a desire to regroup and re-arm as they have done after past rounds of conflict. Publicly, the ROYG continues to call for a dialogue with the Houthi rebels. Although the ball appears to be in the ROYG’s court as to when and under what conditions to begin negotiations with the rebels, the government remains justifiably concerned about the Houthis’ true intentions. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (S/NF) The Houthi rebels have accepted the ROYG’s six conditions for a ceasefire agreement, including the cessation of hostilities against Saudi Arabia, according to al-Haq party secretary general and Houthi mediator Hassan Zayd, who also said that Houthi leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi is alive and well, despite reports of his death in late December (reftel). In a January 6 letter from Abulmalik al-Houthi, which Zayd recognized as Houthi’s penmanship and signature and showed to PolOff, Houthi writes, "We renew what we had announced earlier of accepting the five points with the understanding of our legitimate demands in addressing the effects of the war after installation of a ceasefire. Regarding the territories that are under Saudi control, we will not target them if the Saudis stop their aggression." According to Zayd, the contents of the letter were passed to President Saleh, who has not yet responded. (Note: The Houthis accepted the ROYG’s previous five conditions for a ceasefire in early December, but the ROYG rejected their offer because of Saleh’s annoyance that it was not made publicly, according to sensitive reporting. The Houthis have announced their current offer for a ceasefire on their website. End Note.) ¶3. (S) Publicly, the ROYG continues to call for a dialogue with the Houthi rebels, including in President Saleh’s January 1 editorial in official al-Thawra newspaper and his January 9 interview on Abu Dhabi TV. Saleh, in his New Year’s message, called on the Houthis to "lay down your weapons," and in return "the state will extend its hand for peace." In response to Saleh’s recent calls for dialogue, Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdusalam said that the government had to stop attacking the rebels before any serious dialogue could be conducted. "The President is continuing to include the Houthis in his general calls for dialogue, but it is unclear if his intentions are serious," NDI Deputy Country Director Murad Zafir told PolOff on January 11. Opposition Islah party Assistant Secretary General Mohammed al-Sadi said that the president’s recent comments seemed to suggest that Houthi representatives could be invited to the twice-postponed National Dialogue, now scheduled for late January. Sheikh Mohammed bin Naji al-Shaif, a leader of the Bakil tribal confederation reportedly close to Saleh, told Pol/E Chief on January 12 that there was constant contact between members of Parliament acting as intermediaries on the Houthis’ behalf and the president. (Note: No further information was available to corroborate Shaif’s claims. End Note.) ¶4. (S) On the military front, the ROYG’s "Blow to the Head" (darabat al-ras) operation is continuing to focus on clearing Sa’ada City of Houthi rebels. "They have closed the gates to Sa’ada City," Zayd told PolOff on January 6, "and are working their way door to door." Ruling General People’s Congress (GPC) party-affiliated al-Mutamar newspaper reported on January 10 that ROYG officials are, perhaps optimistically, calling the current operation "the final one inside Sa’ada City." (Note: Post has been unable to verify ROYG claims of success in Sa’ada City. End Note.) Official news outlets have also reported dozens of Houthi casualties in the last week, which would make it one of the deadliest weeks for Houthi rebels since the beginning of the current round of fighting in August. (Note: Elements of both the Yemen Special Operations Forces (YSOF) as well as one of four Counter-Terrorism Unit (CTU) platoons remain in Sa’ada, according to other post reporting. Both were sent to the front ) the YSOF as recently as December ) after Yemen’s regular forces struggled against the Houthis’ unconventional tactics. End Note.) The government’s alleged successes in Sa’ada remain doubtful, however, and even a victory in Sa’ada City would not necessarily turn the tide in the overall conflict. World Food Program (WFP) Representative Giancarlo Cirri told the DATT on January 12 that the road between Sana’a and Sa’ada City remained closed, with WFP’s relief supplies uanble to get through to Sa’ada governorate. COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (S) The situation in Sa’ada remains a delicate one; each side maintains that it is ready to enter peace negotiations if ) and only if ) the other side ceases its hostilities first. The ROYG ) burned five times before by a Houthi organization that has called for peace only to rebuild and rearm ) remains justifiably wary of the rebels’ promises. If ROYG claims of a near-victory in Sa’ada City are true, it might soon assess that the rebels have been sufficiently weakened to stay true to their word, and may give the ceasefire option a try. END COMMENT. SECHE