BACK TO THE FUTURE: YEMEN'S SOUTHERN MOVEMENT

S E C R E T SANAA 000220

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/ARP AMACDONALD AND LFREEMAN AND INR JYAPHE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/03/2020
TAGS: PGOV PREL YM
SUBJECT: BACK TO THE FUTURE: YEMEN'S SOUTHERN MOVEMENT
SPLITS BETWEEN OLD RIVALS

REF: 09 SANAA 2073

Classified By: Ambassador Stephen Seche for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (S) SUMMARY. Supporters of the Southern Movement appear
increasingly polarized between fierce political rivals from
the former People's Democratic Republic of Yemen - President
Ali Nasser Mohammed and Vice President Ali Salim al-Beidh.
While Ali Nasser and his followers remain publicly supportive
of a federalized solution under the umbrella of unity, Beidh
has led his supporters ) most prominent among them Tariq
al-Fadhli - down an increasingly violent, pro-secession road.
Since August, influential Yemenis from both the north and
the south have increased their efforts to bring the two
leaders and their respective factions together in order to
increase political pressure on President Saleh. If
unresolved, this decades-old rivalry will continue to weaken
the southerners' chances for winning hoped-for concessions
from the ROYG. END SUMMARY.


2. (S) Private comments and public statements by Southern
Movement members suggest the group's increasing polarization
into two factions ) one allied with former People's
Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY) President Ali Nasser
Mohammed and the second with former PDRY Vice President Ali
Salim al-Beidh. The two men have a long history of conflict:
Beidh kicked Ali Nasser out of the PRDY in 1986 after a
bloody civil war; Ali Nasser's 1990 departure from North
Yemen was one of Beidh's conditions for uniting the two
countries (reftel). Both have been living in exile ) Beidh
in Muscat and, recently, Europe and Nasser in Damascus and
Cairo ) for much of the last 20 years. As the Southern
Movement has evolved, its fractious supporters have rallied
around the two exiled leaders, each with a distinct view on
the future of southern Yemen.


3. (S) To date, Ali Nasser and his backers ) among them
prominent Yemeni businessman Salman al-Mashdali, Deputy
Speaker of Parliament Mohammed Ali al-Shadadi, Abyan MP Salem
Mansour al-Haydare and Shebwa MP Ali Yaslim Bawda al-Himyari
- have publicly supported the unity of Yemen. Ali Nasser has
carefully portrayed himself as the more moderate alternative,
suggesting a federalized system with greater local authority
as the key to increasing stability. By virtue of their
milder rhetoric, Ali Nasser's clique enjoys greater freedom
to travel throughout the country; many of his supporters,
while southerners by origin, live in Sana'a and have frequent
contact with ROYG officials. Other leaders who are not
members of the Southern Movement have begun to champion Ali
Nasser's ideas. Yemeni Socialist Party (YSP) Secretary
General Yassin Sayyid Noman ) who hard-core movement members
criticize for being too conciliatory with the ROYG - told
PolOff in October that Yemen's political future lay in a
federal system. Noman and Islah leader Hamid al-Ahmar met
with Ali Nasser in Amman on November 12 to explore possible
cooperation with the opposition Joint Meeting Parties (JMP),
according to British diplomats. Northerners Sinan and
Mohammed Abulahoum, Bakil tribal leaders frequently critical
of President Saleh, consider Ali Nasser to be a close friend
and sometimes political ally.


4. (S) Beidh - who uses the inflammatory title President of
the Democratic Republic of Yemen - calls openly for secession
and has led his followers down an increasingly violent path
of resistance. He reportedly sees himself as the rightful
leader of southern Yemen and has lobbied for meetings with
American, British and German officials. According to Beidh
supporter and Southern Movement leader General Mohammed Saleh
Tammah, Beidh will accept political and financial support
from any country ) from the U.S. to Iran - if it helps his
cause. Beidh's confrontational attitude has incensed and
worried the ROYG. His supporters in Yemen ) most prominent
among them former regime insider turned Southern Movement
leader Tariq al-Fadhli ) have echoed his anti-Saleh rhetoric
and moved to increasingly violent protest, enabled by the
thousands of former mujahideen and tribesmen at Fadhli's
disposal. (Note: Beidh's backers are largely confined to
Abyan governorate and unable to travel, even to the nearby
city of Aden, for fear of arrest. End Note.) In December,
the Supreme Security Council accused Beidh of supporting and
financing al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and asked

foreign nations for his extradition. (Note: The ROYG now
refers to the movement as "the al-Qaeda/Southern Movement."
Beidh and other movement members have adamantly denied any
links to AQAP. End Note.)


5. (S) Beginning in August, a series of meetings have taken
place in a range of Arab capitals with the goal of
reconciling old grievances between Ali Nasser and Beidh and
their respective factions. Influential northern Yemenis
often critical of President Saleh ) including the
Abulahoums, Ahmar and previous insiders such as former
Minister of Foreign Affairs Mohammed Basenduah ) have played
a key role in these reconciliation efforts. These
disaffected northern leaders view the nascent Southern
Movement, if shaped and directed appropriately, as a powerful
tool with which to pressure the regime to reform ) or step
down. In late November, according to local media reports,
Beidh signaled a move toward reconciliation, announcing that
after a series of coordination meetings, he felt confident of
"the integration of the efforts of the people of the south
and their will to achieve the purpose of independence."
Lebanese media reported that Ali Nasser and Beidh met on
December 22 in Beirut ) their first face-to-face encounter
since Ali Nasser and his supporters fled the PDRY in 1986.
The outcome of the reunion, however, remains in question. An
American political consultant working for Ali Nasser told the
Ambassador in January that Ali Nasser was considering
returning to Sana'a in May as the sole symbol of the unified
opposition to the Saleh regime.

COMMENT
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6. (S) Although support for secession is increasing across
the south (a recent study by a local polling organization put
it at 70 percent) the Southern Movement's leaders will be
unable to take advantage of the trend until they are able to
put aside the factional infighting that has crippled southern
politics since the end of British rule in 1967. However, if
Ali Nasser and Ali Salim al-Beidh ) both of whom stand as
powerful symbols of an independent southern identity - are
able to put aside 25 years of mistrust and reconcile their
significant differences, they could form a powerful front
with which to challenge President Saleh to seriously address
the legitimate grievances now troubling the southern
governorates. END COMMENT.
SECHE