MORE TALK, LESS ACTION: "NATIONAL DIALOGUE"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANAA 000137 SIPDIS NEA FOR DAS TAMARA WITTES NEA/PI FOR TIM ANDREWS NEA/ARP FOR ANDREW MACDONALD INR FOR JOSHUA YAPHE E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2020 TAGS: PGOV YM SUBJECT: MORE TALK, LESS ACTION: "NATIONAL DIALOGUE" PROCESS STALLED IN YEMEN REF: SANAA 14 Classified By: DCM Angie Bryan for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary. While President Saleh's original proposal for a National Dialogue has been canned by members of the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP),the opposition has proposed an alternative option, namely for a joint-led dialogue committee, which would ultimately lead to a genuine national consultative process with a mutually agreed upon agenda. Despite the ruling General People's Congress' initial rejection of the JMP's proposal, Saleh appears supportive of dialogue ) at least with all the international attention directed his way in the lead up to the London conference. The USG-funded National Democratic Institute (NDI) continues to play a major role in encouraging political participation and democratic reform in Yemen and deserves to have continued funding from the USG. End Summary. ¶2. (C) President Saleh's proposal for a National Dialogue between the ruling General People's Congress (GPC) and the opposition Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) has gone up in flames amidst infighting between the two parties. Proposed by President Saleh in late December (REFTEL),the twice-delayed meeting was to be held on January 30 and led by Shoura Council Chairman Abdulaziz Abdulghani. As the invitation list grew to over 6000 political participants, the opposition denounced the initiative and promised to boycott an effort to clearly sideline them as but a few invitees among thousands. As an alternative to the failed National Dialogue event, the JMP has invited the GPC to join a smaller, jointly-led dialogue committee to plan a genuine national consultative process with a mutually agreed-upon agenda. This version of the national dialogue would be much smaller in scope, involving 45 GPC and 45 JMP representatives, and mediated by former prime minister and longtime political advisor Dr. Abdulkarim al-Eryani. In typical Yemeni style, the GPC initially rejected this proposal, insisting that the dialogue must take place under the auspices of the Shoura Council, and thereby prolonged the standoff between the two parties. ¶3. (C) Still, Saleh appears quietly amenable to the JMP's suggestion to form a joint national dialogue committee, supporting its establishment in a January 21 meeting of the GPC's General Council. According to National Democratic Institute (NDI) Resident Director Heather Therrien, he is considering a proposal for an unofficial meeting between the GPC and JMP to start a conversation about such a joint dialogue. (Comment: A joint meeting would presumably involve the Yemeni Socialist Party (YSP),a part of the opposition which has little to gain from a GPC-JMP joint dialogue, but much to lose if the issue of the continued detention of political prisoners, many of whom are YSP members, is not resolved. End Comment.) ¶4. (C) NDI, a longtime supporter of the democratic process in Yemen, continues to play a major role in urging political players to participate in a joint dialogue committee in order to agree upon and prepare for a larger national meeting in a few months. According to Les Campbell, NDI's Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Director, in addition to presidential concurrence, the joint dialogue committee has broad support across the government and within the opposition. In January 20-23 meetings with Campbell, Vice President and GPC Secretary General Abdurabu Mansour Hadi, Chairman of the Shoura Council Abdulghani, former Prime Minister and political advisor Eryani, Deputy Speaker of Parliament Himyar al-Ahmar, MP and defacto leader of the Hashid tribal confederation Hamid al-Ahmar, as well as leaders of the Islah, YSP, and al-Haq parties, all agreed in principle to support such a joint dialogue committee. Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) On the advent of the London conference as well as a February GCC-led donor conference in Riyadh, Yemeni political players, including the President, may be more amenable to verbally agree on the concept of a joint national dialogue committee without having any real intention of following through on those agreements. The President's explicit support for the conference and implicit support for patching up relations with the JMP may be a prelude to reconciliation with Southern opposition leaders and the Houthis and to confrontation with al-Qaeda ) all of which require opposition support one way or another. Presidential support, however, whether implicit or explicit, contrasts sharply with the anti-JMP rhetoric that is permeating the ROYG and serving as a major obstacle to the ultimate success of an authentic national dialogue. ¶6. (C) NDI's longtime involvement in the process remains critical to government efforts to move forward. Currently funded by the Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI), NDI's program is perhaps one of the single most effective USG-supported efforts to promote democracy in Yemen. NDI's MENA Director Campbell appears ) to a certain extent ) to have the sought-after ear of the President, having developed a trusting relationship with Saleh over the years. When it comes to contributing to the democratic reform and development process, post strongly recommends the continuation of USG support and funding for NDI in Yemen. End Comment. SECHE