C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 RPO DUBAI 000007

SIPDIS
NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/05
TAGS: PGOV IR PREL
SUBJECT: IRAN CLERICAL ORGANIZATION 'DEMOTES' OPPOSITIONIST SENIOR
CLERIC

CLASSIFIED BY: Alan Eyre, Director, DOS, IRPO; REASON: 1.4(B), (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY. On January 2 the Qom Seminary Teachers Association
announced that 72-year old Grand Ayatollah Yusef Sanei, one of the
main senior reformist clerics supporting the Green Path Opposition
(GPO), "did not meet the necessary criteria" to be considered a
'Source of Emulation'' (i.e. a religious authority for Shia
Muslims). Moderate and oppositionist clerics weighed in against
this statement, pointing out that (inter alia) this clerical
organization had no authority to pronounce on such an issue, which
is normally determined by elite consensus among senior clergy and
Muslim believers. Expediency Council President Hashemi Rafsanjani
also (indirectly) opposed the pronouncement, as did (and far more
significantly) the office of Grand Ayatollah Sistani. While
domestic Iranian reactions to this statement divided largely along
the predictable and largely political fault lines, Grand Ayatollah
Sistani is widely seen as the pre-eminent Shia Source of Emulation,
and to have him weigh in against this JAM statement is a serious
loss of face for Supreme Leader Khamenei. As many oppositionist
websites have argued, this Qom Seminary Teachers Association
statement, borne of a political desire to put pressure on and
weaken Grand Ayatollah Sanei, will in all likelihood only burnish
his oppositionist credentials and magnify his importance. END
SUMARY.




2. (U) BACKGROUND: The Qom Seminary Teachers Association ('Jame
Modaresin Hoze Elmie Qom' - 'JAM') is Iran's major clerical
organization. Founded in 1961 and composed of approximately 50
senior clerics, it is quite conservative, with strong ties to the
government. Its current head is hard-line senior cleric and former
Judiciary head Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi. END BACKGROUND.



DEMOTED

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3. (U) On January 2 JAM announced that 72-year old Grand Ayatollah
Yusef Sanei (whom it referred to only as 'Hajj Sheikh Yusef
Sanei'), one of the main senior reformist clerics supporting the
Green Path Opposition (GPO), "did not meet the necessary criteria"
to be considered a 'Source of Emulation.''

(NOTE: In Shia Islam
believers are encouraged to follow and seek guidance from a 'Source
of Emulation,' aka 'Marja-e Taqlid,' -sufficiently knowledgeable
and pious enough to interpret Islamic law and practice). JAM
issued this statement responding to what it cited as a question
from 'numerous scholars and professors' in the Qom Theological
Seminary who had asked for its opinion on Sanei's religious
authority ('marjaiat'), "given the repeated questions of our fellow
countrymen."




4. (U) MORE BACKGROUND: Although the letter seeking a JAM ruling
said that JAM "has always been the source for determining the issue
of clerical legitimacy," this is far from the case. Determining
whether a senior cleric was a 'Source of Emulation' in Iran has
traditionally been an informal and non-government-related issue,
based mostly on consensus among the clerical elite.




5. (U) MORE BACKGROUND (CONT): After the 1994 death of Ayatollah
Araki, JAM published a list of seven senior clergy whom it
considered as having the necessary authority and competency to be a
Source of Emulation. Neither Grand Ayatollah Sanei nor Montazeri
were on this list, although Ayatollah Khamenei was. However, this
January second announcement is the first time that JAM has directly
said that Sanei lacks the necessary conditions to be a Source of
Emulation [See Appendix for JAM's current list of 'authorized'
Sources of Emulation]. END OF BACKGROUND.



REACTION-PRO

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6. (U) This JAM announcement as to Sanei's lack of qualifications
to be a Source of Emulation was quickly disseminated by
pro-government media. Additionally, on the afternoon of January
second, a group of seminary students and teachers gathered at
Faizieh Seminary in Qom, brandishing pictures of Khomeini and
Khamenei and chanting 'Thank you, thank you, Qom Seminary Teachers
Association,' in support of the JAM announcement. At this meeting
JAM member and pro-government hard-line conservative cleric
Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami told press that a special JAM commission
had spent 'over a year' investigating this question, studying
Sanei's record and rulings, and that and the issue had been settled
one month ago. He said that JAM had made a decision first at a
December 31 meeting with all members present, than at a second
meeting "with nearly unanimous support." Subsequently another JAM
cleric, Hojjatoleslam Mahmoud Rajabi, told Iranian press that some
of Sanei's rulings 'clearly contravened passages from the Qoran,'
and that methodologically speaking he did not practice traditional
Islamic jurisprudence ('Feqh-e Javaheri'). He also said some of his
rulings were heresy, and that he had been warned but hadn't paid
attention.



REACTION: CON

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7. (U) Outside of government circles, there was widespread
opposition to the idea that JAM could determine Sanei's religious
competency. As expatriate oppositionist Hassan Shariatmadari (son
of the late Grand Ayatollah Kazem Shariatmadari) pointed out to BBC
Persia [paraphrase follows]:



- the necessary qualifications for being a Source of Emulation are:
reaching the level of 'Ejtehad' in one's religious studies (i.e.
capable of exercising independent reasoning in interpreting Islamic
law); having students; and having the necessary financial
resources, normally derived from followers, to promote one's
scholarship. JAM cannot reasonably make this claim, since it is
obvious Sanei had received permission from those who had taught him
to practice 'ejtehad' (i.e. independent judgment).



SANEI SAYS:

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8. (U) According to oppositionist websites, Ayatollah Sanei's
office responded that it would not react for the moment, "due to
ambiguities concerning the agreement of most of the members of this
organization with the statement." It added that it would wait for
publication of the names of those JAM members present at the
meetings referred to in the letter, and also for clarification as
to the credentials of those who ruled on this issue.




9. (U) Articles on the oppositionist website 'Rah-e Sabz,'
affiliated with dissident cleric Mohsen Kadivar, claimed that JAM's
actions were of a piece with other government efforts to silence
Sanei, to include removing his writings from circulation, and
having its 'thugs' attacking his offices in Tehran and Mashhad.
These articles praised Sanei's 'new thinking' on the compatibility
of Islam and democracy, his advocacy of women's rights, and his
opposition to the government's post-election crackdown. They also
asserted that 'no one' thinks one can bestow or remove religious
authority with a directive or a bulletin: it is based on
affirmation by one's peers and teachers. '



MORE SANEI SUPPORT

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10. (U) On January 3 the reformist ' Assembly of Qom Seminary
Scholars and Researchers' ('Majma-e Modaressin va Mohaqeqqin-e
Howzeh-e 'Elmieh-e Qom' - smaller in size and influence than JAM)
issued a statement decrying the JAM announcement, saying that a
Source of Emulation "isn't a government position where a person,
group or organization has a right to hire and fire." It pointed out
that Sanei has years of teaching religious topics and has written a
religious treatise [NOTE: writing one is a prerequisite for
becoming a Source of Emulation]. It also noted that Ayatollah
Khomeini had appointed him to two separate positions due to his
religious qualifications, and that Sanei himself has certified the
religious credentials of currently serving Iranian officials. On
January 4 the reformist 'Assembly of Militant Clerics' (aka
'Ruhaniyun-e Mobarez') also issued a statement supporting Sanei,
saying that there was 'no doubt about Sanei's religious
credentials,' and that his followers didn't accept him due to one
group's statement, and wouldn't spurn him because of another
group's statement.'



RAF WEIGHS IN

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11. (U) On January 4 Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani, seeking to
preserve his support among traditional clergy, also voiced his
(indirect) support for Sanei's religious credentials. In response
to question from a student group, he said that Sources of
Emulation were never 'hired or fired' by anyone, but that people
selected their own Sources of Emulation by using their own
discernment, and by paying their religious dues to these
individuals.




12. (U) Reactions of some other prominent Iranian clergy were a
function of their political views, with pro-government senior
clergy (Grand Ayatollahs Nasser Makarem-Shirazi and Grand Ayatollah
Hosein Nuri-Hamadani) refraining from commenting, while moderates
such as former Judiciary head Ayatollah Mousavi-Ardebili expressing
support for Sanei. Former Esfahan Friday Prayer Leader and GPO
supporter Ayatollah Jalal Al-Din Taheri Esfahani issued a statement
saying that the JAM announcement was 'illegitimate.'



SISTANI: NO

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13. (U) Surprisingly, Grand Ayatollah Sistani, who normally doesn't
comment on Iranian matters, also took a position on this issue.
According to oppositionist press on January 4 his office issued a
statement saying that JAM "was not an authority for determining
Sources of Emulation." It added that although the individual
believer's opinion is what is determinative in this case it deemed
Grand Ayatollah Sistani to be the pre-eminent Source of Emulation,
followed by Grand Ayatollah Vahid Khorasani.




14. (C) One US-based Iranian analyst with strong roots in Iran's
clerical community told IRPO that this JAM statement came about
because Supreme Leader Khameni was concerned about Sanei's
potential to replace Grand Ayatollah Montazeri as a senior cleric
oppositionist leader, and therefore sought to isolate and put
pressure on him through different tools, including this statement.
This analyst said 'Khamenei is suffering from a deep paranoia...and
is arresting everyone of influence' in the hopes that more of a
crackdown will help him to manage the crisis. However, he thought
this JAM statement was "a big mistake by Khamenei," since the

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response of Sistani and other senior clerics was "quite devastating
for Khamenei" and "would discredit JAM even more than before."



A BRIDGE TOO FAR

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15. (C) COMMENT: The independence of Iran's clerical class began to
suffer almost immediately after the Revolution, when Khomeini
'demoted' Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Kazem Shariatmadari. At that
time Shariatmadari was the senior-most Source of Emulation in Qom
and the one who (ironically enough) first 'recognized' Khomeini as
a Grand Ayatollah in 1963, thus preventing his execution by the
Shah's government. Qom's subordination to Tehran increased
significantly after (then) Hojjjatoleslam Khamenei became Supreme
Leader in 1989. Today, Iran's clerical class is almost fully under
government control, and this latest JAM statement reflects not just
Khamenei's ham-fisted attempts to suppress all opposition but also
the almost complete disappearance of Iranian clerical independence.
Grand Ayatollahs Sanei and the late Montazeri were rare exceptions,
and it is more often the case that prominent clerics who disagree
with the government on many matters (such as Vahid-Khorasani)
choose to remain largely silent on political issues.




16. (C) COMMENT (CONT): Having said that it does indeed seem, as
our IRPO contact argues above, that this JAM statement was an
over-reach which backfired. While domestic Iranian reactions to
this statement divided largely along the predictable and largely
political fault lines, Grand Ayatollah Sistani is widely seen as
the pre-eminent Shia Source of Emulation, and to have him weigh in
support of Sanei is a serious loss of face for Supreme Leader
Khamenei. As many oppositionist websites have argued, this JAM
statement will in all likelihood only burnish Sanei's oppositionist
credentials and magnify his importance. END COMMENT.





APPENDIX:



JAM LIST OF SIX PERMITTED "SOURCES OF EMULATION"

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1. Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei


2. Grand Ayatollah Hossein Vahid Khorasani


3. Grand Ayatollah Mousa Shobeiri Zanjani


4. Grand Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi


5. Grand Ayatollah Lotfollah Safi Golpaygani


6. Grand Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Sistani
EYRE