IRAN'S HARDLINERS NOT READY TO COMPROMISE

C O N F I D E N T I A L RPO DUBAI 000005 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/05 TAGS: PGOV IR PREL SUBJECT: IRAN'S HARDLINERS NOT READY TO COMPROMISE REF: A) DUBAI RPO 3; B) DUBAI RPO 1 CLASSIFIED BY: Charles Pennypacker, Consular Officer, DOS, IRPO; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Hardline IRIG officials stepped up the rhetoric this week in a series of statements against the opposition. As court proceedings against the Ashura protest participants began, both the National Prosecutor General and the Tehran Prosecutor General signaled that the defendants could face execution if found guilty. Perhaps in anticipation of the courts' verdicts, thirty-six pro-government Majlis deputies today sought to shorten the waiting period of those sentenced to death for certain crimes from 20 to five days. Separately, on January 4 the MOIS released a list of the 60 foreign organizations involved in the West's 'soft war' against Iran and forbade Iranians from contact with the named organizations (reftel a). Also on January 4, Judiciary chief Sadegh Larijani supported the re-creation of a Judiciary police force, calling it a priority. And finally, the backlash against Mohsen Rezai's support for Mousavi's five-part plan continued. Taken together, these developments indicate that hardliners in the IRIG have little interest in compromise and instead intend to continue to suppress and intimidate the Green Path Opposition (GPO). END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) Iran's Judiciary branch this week began proceedings against Ashura protest participants. Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Dolatabadi said Revolutionary Court Branch 15 on January 3 began reviewing the files of two of the accused, and that the court will soon begin examining the cases against other defendants as well. Also on January 3, Dolatabadi said that if a judge determines that the accused intended to 'undermine the foundations of the state,' the punishment for such acts could be death. On January 5, the Tehran Prosecutor's Office announced 'till now', 40 of the 'elements and planners' behind the Ashura protests have been arrested. ¶3. (U) On January 4, Iran's Prosecutor General Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei echoed Dolatabadi's warning, saying that "those, among the Islamic ummah, who want to cause terror among people with guns or cold weapons, they are considered as Mohareb [fighter against God] and according to the Shari'ah and the laws, their punishment is execution." ¶4. (U) On January 4, the MOIS revealed a list of 60 foreign organizations alleged to be involved in a soft war against Iran (reftel a). Any communication or contact with these organizations is deemed illegal. ¶5. (U) During a January 4 meeting with members of the Majlis national security commission Judiciary head Hojjatoleslam Sadegh Larijani supported the proposal to bring back the Judiciary's police force. Larijani said that such a force is among the Judiciary's primary goals. ¶6. (U) On January 5, 36 pro-government Majles members submitted a bill intended to shorten the waiting period prior to execution for those considered 'Mohareb' from 20 days to five days. ¶7. (U) The backlash to Mohsen Rezai's support for Mousavi's five-point plan (reftel b) continued. On January 4, IRNA reported that 162 professors, doctors, and former friends of Rezai in a letter to the same said that unity in the country will only be possible when the 'leaders of the riots confess to their lies about election fraud.' Their letter follows a series attacks against Rezai from hardline IRIG elements. ¶8. (C) COMMENT: After Ashura, our contacts postulated that the regime was at a crossroads, and that it would either seek to compromise to prevent further unrest or to punish and suppress the GPO with even greater vigor. Just as the arrests immediately following Ashura suggested, events of the past few days give little indication that the IRIG's hardline elements have any interest in compromise. END COMMENT. EYRE