IRAN: GUARDIAN COUNCIL'S ROLE TAKES CENTER STAGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RPO DUBAI 000045

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/23
TAGS: PGOV IR PREL
SUBJECT: IRAN: GUARDIAN COUNCIL'S ROLE TAKES CENTER STAGE

CLASSIFIED BY: Kathleen McGowan, Political Officer, DOS, IRPO;
REASON: 1.4(B),(D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Opposition leader Mehdi Karrubi's February 22 call
for a national referendum on the role of the Guardian Council in
vetting candidates for elected office follows on the heels of news
that the Expediency Council, led by Chairman Ali Akbar Hashemi
Rafsanjani and Secretary Mohsen Rezaei, is formulating proposed
revisions to the Election Law that would effectively neutralize the
Guardian Council's influence over elections. The Expediency
Council proposal, which is still in committee, drew immediate fire
from hardline conservative regime elements. Moderate proponents of
the plan, including Rezaei, defended the plan to establish a
National Election Commission charged with ensuring candidates
compete on a 'level playing field', arguing that work on the
initiative predates the disputed June 2009 Presidential election
and was approved by Supreme Leader Khamenei. Nevertheless, it is
unlikely that Khamenei will accede to any diminishing of his
institutional power and of the Guardian Council's role in
elections, especially at a time when it is fundamentally unsure of
its ability to compete in any sort of fair election, and when it is
consolidating its ability to manage popular dissent. END SUMMARY




2. (SBU) Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of the hardline daily
Kayhan, 'broke' the story of the Expediency Council proposal with a
February 20 front-page editorial slamming senior members of the
Expediency Council for tabling a plan "clearly aimed at eliminating
the Guardian Council's role" in vetting potential candidates for
offices. If enacted, argued Shariatmadari, the initiative would
"circumvent the Constitution" while serving the interests of
"enemies of the System both at home and abroad." (NOTE:
Shariatmadari was appointed to his position by the Supreme Leader
and Kayhan's editorial line often serves to 'preview' Khamenei's
stance on policy issues. END NOTE)




3. (SBU) The administration's reaction was more subdued, but
equally dismissive of the brewing Expediency Council initiative.
Deputy Interior Minister Solat Mortazavi told reporters February 20
that though it was "premature" to comment on the unfinished plan,
the proposal was "insignificant" since the Interior Ministry would
be presenting its own proposal for revising the election law to the
government by the end of February. Conservative MP and staunch
Ahmadinejad ally Hojatoleslam Ruhollah Hosseinian quickly declared
the Majlis would never accept such legislation.




4. (SBU) Expediency Council members Mohsen Rezaei and Taimor-Ali
Asgari rebutted the criticism head-on in a series of interviews
February 22. Former IRGC head and 2009 Presidential candidate
Rezaei took Shariatmadari to task for "speculating without complete
information" and emphasized that any change would have to be
approved by the Supreme Leader and therefore this initiative could
not be interpreted as an indirect attempt to limit his authority.
Rezaei also argued that the Islamic Republic's Constitution is
sufficiently vague on how election should be conducted as to
warrant further legal refinement. Asgari, for his part, explained
to the press that the Expediency Council has been working on the
Election Law "since 1387" (March 2008-March 2009) when the Supreme
Leader approved EC Chairman Rafsanjani's recommendation that the
law be overhauled.




5. (SBU) In the interview with semi-official news agency ILNA,
Asgari elaborated on the plan in question, which remains in the
EC's 'Politics, Defense and Security Committee' headed by former
nuclear negotiator Hossein Rowhani. According to Asgari, the
proposal will recommend that candidate vetting be transferred from
the Guardian Council to a new 'National Election Commission' that
would also oversee campaign financing, ensure government resources
are not used on behalf of a candidate, and generally guarantee a
level playing field for all candidates. As currently conceived,
the National Election Commission would be comprised of the Interior
Minister, the Intelligence Minister, head of the Supreme Audit
Court, one MP, the Attorney General, head of the State Inspection
Organization, an Expediency Council member, head of the Supreme
Provincial Council, the state broadcasting head, and one Guardian
Council member who would "of course" have observer, not voting,
status.

DUBAI 00000045 002 OF 002


Karrubi Jumps on the Bandwagon?




6. (SBU) Mehdi Karrubi, in his first public statement since the
government thwarted the opposition's plans to co-opt February 11
national day celebrations, called on authorities February 22 to
allow opposition supporters to rally peacefully and to hold a
national referendum on the role of the Guardian Council in
elections. Karrubi argued that since the "totalitarian regime" is
hyping the February 11 rallies as a "referendum to endorse its
violent policies against the people, I propose the holding of a
general referendum to resolve the crisis and to put an end to the
Guardian Council's interference...which impedes free and fair
elections."




7. (C) COMMENT: The Constitution gives the Guardian Council
"supervisory" power over all elections, a role which was
substantially strengthened by election legislation passed by the
Fifth Majlis (1996-2000). As currently interpreted, this power
means the 12-man body determines who can stand as a candidate and
certifies final election results. Because the Guardian Council is
appointed (six directly and six indirectly) by the Supreme Leader,
the current interpretation of the Guardian Council's supervisory
role over elections is arguably Khamenei's single greatest lever of
influence over Iranian politics. As such, it is inconceivable that
he would accede to a plan that would cut the Guardian Council out
of the election-rigging business without a guarantee that his
personal influence would remain supreme. Similarly, Karrubi's call
for a national referendum on the role of the Guardian Council may
have publicity value for the demoralized opposition movement, but
no realistic chance of being enacted. While it is possible he is
trying to play "bad cop" to the Expediency Council's more sober
machinations, it could very likely strengthen the hardliners'
argument that the Council's proposed Election Law reform is a
thinly-veiled challenge to the Supreme Leader's authority. END
COMMENT.
EYRE