ITALY-YEMEN: SENIOR MFA OFFICIALS OUTLINE APPROACH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 ROME 000089 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/21/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER KISL IT YE SUBJECT: ITALY-YEMEN: SENIOR MFA OFFICIALS OUTLINE APPROACH ON FRIENDS OF YEMEN, EU FAC ISSUES ROME 00000089 001.2 OF 005 Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Barbara A. Leaf for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) FM Frattini's Chief of Staff Alain Economides and Acting Director General of the MFA Middle East Bureau Luigi Marras told us the international community needed to take an inclusive and regional approach to stabilizing Yemen in the aftermath of the attempted bombing of NWA Flight 253. Marras stressed that Yemeni ownership of the effort and tailoring the approach to local sensitivities was critical to success. Commenting on the Department's Yemen demarche points for the upcoming EU Foreign Affairs Council (FAC) ministerial, Marras said the GOI fully shared U.S. concerns and that an inclusive "Friends of Yemen" (FOY) format would be most effective. Economides provided the PolMin Counselor an advance copy of the GOI position paper on Yemen that FM Frattini will present in London detailing the GOI's concept of the FOY initiative (text below). End summary. GOI APPROACH TO FOY -------------- ¶2. (C) On January 20, Poloffs conveyed the Yemen demarche points for the January 25 EU FAC ministerial to Acting Director General of the MFA's Middle East Bureau Luigi Marras. In response, Marras said that Yemen has been a top GOI concern for the past two years and that Italy shares the USG analysis of the security problem Yemen represents. Marras emphasized Yemen's links with Somalia and other East African countries and that the FOY initiative must address social and economic development in that region too, in order to preempt al-Qaida's recruiting attempts. Italy has also pushed for a more pro-active EU commitment toward combating terrorism and addressing the sources of instability in Yemen, he noted. ¶3. (C) Marras said that to be effective the FOY should ensure Yemeni "ownership" of the initiative and FOY countries should not be perceived as too intrusive. Specifically, the ROYG should not be pressured to accept reforms that could play into the hands of "negative forces" and further weaken the central government. While democracy is one instrument to achieve "stability and happiness" in Yemen, Marras said our (western) notion of democratic reform cannot be imposed on Yemeni society in a short period of time. Acknowledging that he did not yet know the organizational details of the January 27 London FOY meeting, Marras said the Arab League should have been invited as well as all countries and organizations presently working in Yemen. ¶4. (C) Marras quoted A/S Gordon that Yemen should not be perceived as "an Anglo-Saxon concern," a perspective Italy shares. Commenting that London has been "very secretive" about its organizing of the FOY, Marras offered his view the FCO must have been caught by surprise at having to host the meeting at such short notice. As for Italian assistance, Marras said the GOI is currently helping Yemen fight high seas piracy and to regain partial control of its coast by providing training, radars and refitted Italian patrol boats to the Yemeni coast guard. Italy plans to increase assistance to Yemen which, according to Marras, would help in monitoring arms smuggling to Gaza. GREATER ENGAGEMENT -- ESPECIALLY U.S. -- ON SOMALIA NEEDED -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) In a separate meeting with PolMin Counselor, FM Frattini CoS Economides underlined the sense of urgency Frattini has about Somalia following his Africa swing last week. (Note: Frattini announced from Kenya GOI plans to fund the Somali MFA, Ministry of National Security and other GOS entities. End note.) Economides said that every head of state and foreign minister Frattini met during the trip urged the Italians to elicit greater USG engagement on Somalia. Economides said the GOI viewed Somalia and Yemen as two sides of the same (bad) coin, in terms of spawing trans-national security threats, thus it was critical that we collectively addressed problems in both countries in a coordinated, cohesive fashion. He mused that while hitherto Somalia's neighbors had taken a stance of hoping to keep the problems ROME 00000089 002.2 OF 005 there contained within, it was now clear that this was a non-starter. "We have no choice" but to engage directly and assertively in Somalia, thus the GOI commitment to fund ministries and police and coast guard training. As an indication of how some neighbors still longed for old solutions, Economides said Kenyan officials told Frattini they aimed to build a kind of "cordon sanitaire" 60 kilometres deep along the Kenyan-Somali border, an idea he dismissed as pointless in terms of addressing the security threats emanating from Somalia. Following is the text of the GOI position paper on Yemen: ITALIAN POSITION PAPER ON YEMEN -------------- (C) Begin Text: Under embargo until after the intervention of FM Frattini at the January 27 London FOY meeting. January 18, 2010. (C) Analysis: Yemen has long been facing serious destabilizing factors, which find fertile ground in the socio-economic difficulties affecting the country, such as poverty, shortages in resources, rise of extremism, flux of refugees, illegal immigration and trafficking. The main reasons for concern are currently represented by the terrorist groups in the northeast of Yemen (allegedly benefiting from Iranian support),the separatist movements in southeast , and the complex tribal system of the country, as well as the proximity to Somalia. These elements altogether create an environment where al-Qaida and other terrorist organizations have shown to be able to increase their destabilizing activities. (C) Strategy: The national Yemeni ownership of the process, as well as the regional ownership of the process (all of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries should be included),are of the utmost importance (also at the media level). The sovereignty of Yemen should be fully respected, and all the national and regional instruments put to work. For these reasons, the Arab League should be invited. The perception of an intrusive foreign presence shoud be avoided in order to foster support from all the components of the country. It is necessary to effectively support the process of re-stabilization of Yemen through a coordinated effort of the international community. (C) Steps to be taken: Yemen, together with the GCC countries, should work out a strategy for restabilization which could be shared by a group of countries and organizations (that are) "Friends of Yemen." At the 27 January London meeting the main lines of the strategy could be discussed and a working plan agreed upon. (C) The plan could include the following main areas of intervention: a) Social and economic measures; b) Institution building; c) Security; d) Coastal monitoring and patrolling; e) Smuggling and trafficking. To each of these areas of intervention could correspond a Working Group under the lead of Yemen with the assistance of a country or of an international organization. Italy could could consider assisting Yemen in one of the Groups. The coastal monitoring and patrolling Group could be a possibility. (Italy participates both in Ocean Shield and Atalanta operations, is implementing VTMS system in Yemen, is engaged significantly in Somalia, and is ready to host in Rome one of the next meetings of the Gaza Counter Arms Smuggling Initiative.) (C) In order to be consistent with the strategy of national ownership, the coordination of such Working Groups should be loose and informal, although effective. In the weeks following the London conference, Friends of Yemen could meet in the region to start its activities. Alternatively, Rome could be a possible venue. End text. ROME 00000089 003.2 OF 005 Following is the text of the paper on Frattini's discussions on Somalia with Kenyan, Ethiopian and Somali leaders, provided by Economides: Updated Italian position on Somalia Begin text: Somalia is a priority in Italy's foreign policy. In this light, the Somali crisis was the main topic of discussion during meetings of Foreign Minister Franco Frattini with Somali, Kenyan and Ethiopian Authorities, held during his recent visit to these countries. In line with the "Italian Position Paper on Somalia", presented to the extraordinary ICG meeting held in New York on the 23rd of September 2009, Italy has the pleasure of forwarding the following updated position, which considers views expressed by the leaders of the three mentioned countries, which Italy fully endorses. Discussions with Ethiopia and Kenya Somalia was major topic of discussion in the meetings the Italian Foreign Minister, Franco Frattini, held in Ethiopia with Prime Minister Meles and Foreign Minister Seyoum (13 January) as well as in Kenya with President Kibaki, Prime Minister Odinga and Foreign Minister Wetangula (14 January). Ethiopia and Kenya had very similar messages: The crisis in Somalia has a dangerous spill-over effect throughout the wider region, as well as for Europe. It represents a clear and present threat to international security, due mainly to terrorism as well as piracy. In the region there is a widespread feeling - backed up by anecdotal evidence - that the upper layers of Shabaab leadership are predominantly constituted by foreign fighters, with strong ties to Al Qaeda. According to both leaders, the Somali Transitional Federal Institutions must be urgently and effectively assisted, as their failure would be a disaster firstly for the region, but also for the International Community. If Shabaab take control over Mogadishu, the effects will be dramatic in the neighboring countries (Sudan, Kenya, Ethiopia) but also at the international level through a surge of fundamental Islamic terrorism (seveal Somalis - some of them with double passports - have already been protagonists of terrorists acts). This view is also shared by the Special Representative of the UNSG, Ambassador Ould Abdallah. The African Union peacekeeping mission needs to be futher strengthened, to allow it to become a more effective instrument of defence of the TFG and its Institutions. According to the leaders of both countries, the crisis should be tackled by the International Community with more effectiveness and coordination. Among other considerations, the humanitarian situation in Somalia and the plague of Somali refugees abroad call for a strong international response (reactivating the World Food Programme activities in Somalia was specifically mentioned). As concerns the internal situation the leaders of both countries, while stressing their full support to the TFG, pointed out some inconsistencies in its action which need to be addressed and overcome: the incapacity to create better living conditions for their people (security, health, education, jobs) at least in the Shabaab-free areas; requests not in line with clear priorities presented by the TFIs to donors (e.g.: rehabilitation of the Ministry of Tourism in Mogadishu). Particularly serious is the inability of the TFG to pay regularly their Security Forces (due also to the insufficient and inadequate assistance by the International Community) while the Shabaab seem much better at acquiring the necessary financial resources to ensure regular payment of their forces. The International Community has a crucial role to play in this respect, as financial assistance is badly needed to cover these vital expenses. Both countries acknowledged the key role Italy can play in the Somali crisis and in the region, and encouraged Rome to continue to pursue its action, also as a stimulus to the rest of the International Community. ROME 00000089 004.2 OF 005 Positon of Somalia Foreign Minister Frattini met with President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed in Nairobi. The President was accompanied by Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance and by Foreign Minister Jengheli. The President confirmed that the first and foremost priority of Somalia is security. In addition, the Somali President stressed that the Transitional Federal Institutions need targeted foreign support to work more efficiently. The first budget ever since 1991, just released for 2010, is an important step to such an effect. The amount involved is 110 million dollars, well within the reach of the International Community. The Government will continue its policy of national reconciliation and outreach towards Somali civil society. Economic reconstruction must start in safe areas, controlled by Government forces. The International Community must respect the pledges made at the April 2009 Brussels' Conference as well as re-activiate its presence in Somalia (The President explicitly mentioned the need for a UN presence on the ground). The President also dwelt upon the linkages between Somalia and Yemen in the fight against terrorism. Focusing on security, the President insisted strongly on the need to ensure regular and adequate payment for his Security Forces, in order to prevent defections and strengthen the TFG. President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed also stressed that urgent priorities in this field are military equipment, logistics and transport, medical supplies and healthcare. The President asked Italy to host a pledging Conference for the Reconstruction of Somalia. Italy's Engagement In 2009 Italy disbursed 13 million Euros in favour of security in Somalia as well as for capacity-building in favour of its institutions, namely 5 million euros to AMISOM and almost 8 million euros to Somalia Security Forces (managed together with the AU through the Italian Africa Peace Facility) and to key Somali Ministries (Foreign Afairs, National Security, Finance, Interior, through a program managed by UNOPS). Moreover, 6 million euros were disbursed by Italian Aid, providing humanitarian assistance to the Somali population (mostly through International Agencies, as Italy presently doesn't send expatriates on the ground). Italy will pursue its engagement through projects aimed a training Somali 'robust' Police Forces, border and custom police officers (the first such course took place in Italy recently),and possibly through a pilot project to train Coast Guard officers. Targeted support to the Ministry of Information, specifically for Radio Mogadishu, is also foreseen, with a main purpose of reinforcing Somali Government capabilities to reach out to civil society and public opinion. Until now, information and propaganda has been monopolised by Shabaab. Italy confirms the intention of re-opening its Embassy in Mogadishu as well as to deepen its recognition of the Somali Government by formally accepting the new Somali passports. Political priorities Italy will further its comprehensive approach towards Somalia, also by envisaging targeted advocacy actions in order to make sure that partners in the International Community live up to their promises regarding supporting concretely the Transitional Federal Institutions' and Somali Security Foreces (e.g. disbursing pledges at the Brussels' Conferences). Similar efforts may be required in strengthening AMISOM as a pre-condition to allow the TFIs to establish a more secure environment, starting with the capital Mogadishu. The initiative of re-opening the Embassy of Italy in Mogadishu should be matched by parallel steps by the most important international organizations, such as the UN, the EU and the AU, in order to materialize on the ground the resolve of the International Community in supporting the TFIs. Italy will continue to cooperate with countries within the region, ROME 00000089 005.2 OF 005 also in its capacity as Chair of the IGAD Partners' Forum (IPF). IGAD itself has decided to send a Ministerial Troika -- Kenya, Djibouti and the IGAD Secretariat -- to some countries. On the EU front, Italy deems it necessary to appoint a EU Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa, to better focus and streamline the Union's activity in the region, with a particular focus on Somalia. THORNE