TOUR D'HORIZON WITH CENTER-LEFT FOREIGN POLICY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 000152 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2040 TAGS: PGOV PREL IT SUBJECT: TOUR D'HORIZON WITH CENTER-LEFT FOREIGN POLICY CHIEF PIERO FASSINO ROME 00000152 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Elizabeth L. Dibble for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). Summary - - - - ¶1. (C/NF) On February 4, Democratic Party foreign policy chief Piero Fassino met with the Ambassador to discuss foreign and domestic policy issues, particularly focusing on Burma and Middle East, on which he has special envoy roles for the European Union and the Council of Europe respectively. Fassino reported that the opposition largely backed GOI's foreign policy initiatives, although he did say that the government should be "more balanced" in its approach to Middle East issues. He called Iran and Afghanistan long-term challenges that require international unity. On the Middle East, he saw an opportunity for a compromise that would grant the nascent Palestinian state a part of Jerusalem in return for renouncing the right of return for Palestinian refugees. And on Burma, Fassino told the Ambassador that a small "window of opportunity" has opened to push the military regime to open up. End summary. Middle East: A Deal on Jerusalem in Exchange for No Right of Return - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C/NF) A regular visitor to the Middle East, Fassino called the issue of settlements and borders resolvable, given that both sides had agreed in principle to a land swap. The issues of refugee resettlement and Jerusalem are hairier, he noted, although Fassino saw an opportunity to link the issues in a compromise--the Palestinians could forego the right of return within Israel in exchange for part of Jerusalem as the capital of a future Palestinian state. Fassino told the Ambassador that he agreed with most of Prime Minister Berlusconi's comments at the Knesset on February 3. However, he criticized Berlusconi for sending a contradictory message to Abu Mazen over the war in Gaza, making an ill-suited comparison with the Holocaust. (Note: Asked about Operation Cast Lead during his February 3 visit to Bethlehem, Berlusconi said that "just as it was right to cry for the victims of the Holocaust, so it is right to grieve for what happened in Gaza." End note.) Berlusconi "wants to be loved, and so he tailors his message to the audience," Fassino told the Ambassador. Beyond the recent trip, Fassino said that the Berlusconi government had tilted its approach too far towards Israel, and as a result had lost influence with the Palestinians. Iran: More Focus on Human Rights Needed - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C/NF) Tougher sanctions on Iran would be painful for Italy, Fassino told the Ambassador, though he agreed that western unity is critical, and commented "sanctions are better than war." He also called for the west to press Iran harder on human rights, stating that many Iranians are deeply skeptical of their government. Moreover, he reasoned, nuclear weapons in the hands of a moderate democratic regime, would be far less dangerous. By focusing exclusively on the nuclear issue, the west risked looking hypocritical given that Pakistan and India, for example, both have nuclear weapons. Afghanistan: West Must be United, Work with Pakistan - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C/NF) Calling Afghanistan a very difficult challenge, Fassino said the key to resolving Afghanistan is finding a solution to the conflict between India and Pakistan. He said that 50 percent of the problem with Afghanistan lies in Pakistan. Fassino agreed on the importance of western unity, and said that a continued robust Italian contribution was beyond discussion. Fassino noted that he and his party have consistently backed Italian deployments to Afghanistan, Lebanon, and the Balkans. Only on Iraq did the PD dissent in recent years. Burma: Keep Sanctions, Push for Democracy - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C/NF) With elections scheduled for 2011, and the regime interested in greater dialogue, the west should push Burma to open up the political process and relax some of the restrictions on the opposition leader, Fassino told the Ambassador. Fassino conceded that truly democratic elections might be impossible, but the 2011 elections could be a first step to be built upon. He saw an opening in Burma as a long-term project that in a best-case scenario could mirror Indonesia's transformation from a military regime to a democracy. While advocating the retention of sanctions because of the message that they send, Fassino was ROME 00000152 002.2 OF 002 pessimistic about their practical utility given the non-participation of Burma's key Asian trading partners. Fassino is planning an April trip to Burma as part of his EU Special Envoy role. PD Is Stronger than it Appears in the Regional Races - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (C/NF) Turning to domestic politics, Fassino acknowledged that it is a very challenging climate for the PD, but he said that the media and political analysts are underestimating the party. Of the 13 regional contests at the end of March, Fassino said that PD would win seven or eight of them. Fassino predicted that PD would win two of the four close contests--Lazio, Puglia, Piemonte, and Campania. Such a result would be read as a relatively strong performance for a party that most observers have judged to be in a downward spiral. Comment - - - - ¶7. (C/NF) Fassino is an intelligent interlocutor with a strong grasp of the range of foreign policy issues. With the PD weak and divided, its foreign policy influence is minimal, and as a result Fassino has increased his roles in international organizations. A Fassino aide explained this by saying that Fassino dreams of being foreign minister and enjoys shuttle diplomacy. The PD has a fairly deep bench of foreign policy thinkers, though Fassino is clearly the point of reference for the party, along with former Prime Minister Massimo D'Alema. Fassino speaks English, though he is much more comfortable in Italian. Fassino has just returned from meetings in Washington with State Department officials including A/S Campbell and meetings on Capitol Hill, including with Sen. Jim Webb. THORNE