SAUDI-SYRIAN RELATIONS: A "GOOD SMELL IN THE AIR"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RIYADH 000105 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/19/2020 TAGS: PREL PGOV SA LE SY IR WB GZ SUBJECT: SAUDI-SYRIAN RELATIONS: A "GOOD SMELL IN THE AIR" REF: A. DAMASCUS 00052 ¶B. RIYADH 00034 ¶C. RIYADH 00037 RIYADH 00000105 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: AMBASSADOR JAMES B. SMITH FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Syrian President Bashar Al-Asad's three-day visit to Saudi Arabia from January 13-15 (ref A) marked the third time in four months that the once-estranged Asad and King Abdullah have met face to face. While the Syrian Embassy in Riyadh has downplayed the political dimensions of the visit--and brushed off the suggestion that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak had been invited to attend--they are clearly enthusiastic about the improving personal relationship between the King and Asad and its potential implications for Syria's--and the region's--future. END SUMMARY. ASAD'S VISIT: THE BASICS -------------- ¶2. (U) According to official SPA reporting, Asad was received at the airport on January 13 by King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz, Riyadh Governor Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz, and the King's son and advisor Prince Abdulaziz bin Abdullah. The group went to the King's Janadriyah farm outside of Riyadh, where they were joined by FM Prince Saud Al-Faisal for official meetings and a dinner. ¶3. (U) On January 14, Asad traveled to Jeddah, accompanied by Prince Abdulaziz bin Abdullah for the duration of the trip. In Jeddah he paid official visits to the King Abdullah University for Science and Technology (KAUST),where he met with Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Ali Al-Naimi, and to the King Abdullah Economic City (KAEC), where he met with SAGIA Governor Amr Al-Dabbagh. Other press outlets reported that Asad's wife and children met him in Jeddah, and that the family performed Umrah together. "PRIVATE VISIT" WITH LIMITED OFFICIAL CONTENT -------------- ¶4. (C) Syrian Embassy contacts described the visit as a "tremendous success," stressing the personal, rather than the official dimensions of the trip. According to Syrian First Secretary Qusay Mustafa, their Embassy in Riyadh was aware of Asad's visit in advance; however, they were told it was "purely personal" and had limited involvement in its arrangement or substance. Asad had initially just asked to visit the Kingdom to perform Umrah with his family; however, the King insisted upon hosting him and the pair held approximately two hours of official meetings. No Syrian officials accompanied Asad on the visit, and the Syrian Ambassador to Saudi Arabia was present at "some, but not all" of the official talks between the two leaders. ¶5. (C) Mustafa said that discussion of Lebanon, the Egyptian-led Palestinian reconciliation efforts, and the upcoming Arab League summit in March dominated the official conversation. On Lebanon, both sides were "pleased" with current progress. On Palestinian reconciliation, Syria hoped that an agreement could be reached, but did not believe Palestinian unity was a necessary prerequisite before continuing their own talks with Israel vis-a-vis the Golan Heights. On the Arab League summit, Mustafa said the Syrians we0QiQQb;TS*U,7wportant" to happen, such as an agreement on a possible "deadline" for Israel to acknowledge the Arab Peace Initiative. He was tight-lipped as to what extent Saudi and Syrian goals for the summit were in alignment, but maintained the Syrians were "optimistic" that developing personal bonds between Abdullah and Asad would eventually pay dividends. While the official news reports suggested Iran, Iraq, and Yemen were also on the agenda, Mustafa made no comments about these topics. WHAT ABOUT MUBARAK? -------------- ¶6. (C) Asked about media speculation that King Abdullah had been trying to bring about a three-way meeting that included Egyptian president Mubarak, Mustafa insisted it was unfounded. "I was standing next to our Ambassador when he asked our President if this was the case, and he said no, absolutely not." RIYADH 00000105 002.2 OF 002 COMMENT: -------------- ¶7. (C) Asked to describe the current state of Saudi-Syrian relations and their prospects for the immediate future, Mustafa noted a "good smell in the air." However, his insistence that Asad's visit was "purely personal" may be an attempt to camouflage Syrian disappointment that the rumored three-way summit didn't materialize. In separate meetings, Egyptian Embassy contacts have maintained that Mubarak was invited, but that he refused because he did not want to "reward" the Syrians for what he views as insufficient steps to distance themselves from Iran, Hezbollah, and especially Hamas. Further, they suggested that some Saudi officials were "growing frustrated" with Asad, but that the King felt strongly that engagement with Syria was essential. While the truth probably lies somewhere in between, it is clear that both the Egyptians and Syrians are interested in shaping the U.S. view of the changing Saudi-Syrian relationship. ¶8. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: Asad's visit came during a particularly active time for Saudi diplomacy--on the heels of visits by Mahmoud Abbas (ref B) and Khaled Mish'al (ref C), following trips by FM Saud to Egypt and Damascus, on the same day as a visit by Chinese FM Yang (septel),and just prior to a visit by Turkish PM Erdogan. Given this context, the suggestion the Saudis may have been trying to broker a three-way summit is believable. Regardless of what else may have been intended, the Syrians are clearly enthusiastic about the improving personal relationship between Abdullah and Asad and its potential implications for Syria's--and the region's--future. END COMMENT. SMITH