BURMA: ASEAN PRESENCE WINDING DOWN; NO ROLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 000072 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, INR/EAP BANGKOK FOR USAID JAKARTA FOR JOSH CARTIN E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/05/2020 TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID SOCI BM SUBJECT: BURMA: ASEAN PRESENCE WINDING DOWN; NO ROLE ENVISIONED IN ELECTIONS REF: 2009 RANGOON 223 AND PREVIOUS RANGOON 00000072 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: P/E Chief Jennifer Harhigh for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) ASEAN Special Envoy for Post-Nargis Recovery Willie Sabandar, together with visiting officials from the ASEAN Secretariat in Jakarta, announced to donors and NGOs February 5 that the organization is winding down its presence in Burma and expects to shut down all ASEAN-related mechanisms by July 31, 2010, when the mandate of the Tri-Partite Core Group (TCG) expires. The GOB has not requested, and ASEAN does not plan to offer, any type of assistance related to Burma's 2010 elections. Rather, the organization would hope to return to Burma in early 2011, after elections, to discuss development activities. Meanwhile, Vietnamese Ambassador to Burma Chu Cong Phung stated that during the recent ASEAN Foreign Ministers' meeting in Danang, Burmese Foreign Minister Nyan Win made no announcement regarding the timing or conduct of the elections. Nyan Win reportedly emphasized that Burma's top priority is ensuring political stability prior to the elections. End summary. ASEAN "Winding Down," Has no Plans to Discuss Elections with GOB -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Sabandar briefed donors and NGOs on ASEAN's plans to "wind down" its presence in Burma and close the ASEAN Humanitarian Task Force and all Nargis-related mechanisms by July 31, 2010. He suggested it is possible a skeleton staff of local employees may remain. Sabandar said he will meet Burmese FM Nyan Win February 9 to discuss the transition of some TCG-related functions to the Ministry of Social Welfare (MSW),but offered no details. He also plans to ask for GOB support to strengthen a regional partnership for Disaster Risk Management, including by creating a post-Nargis resource center under the auspices of MSW to share lessons learned and best practices. He will also propose a "public-private partnership for sustainable livelihoods" in coordination with the government-supported Union of Myanmar Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industries (UMFCCI). ¶3. (SBU) When asked whether he planned to discuss with Nyan Win a potential role for ASEAN in Burma's planned 2010 elections, Sabandar turned to his colleague from the ASEAN Secretariat, Dhannan Sunoto, who replied "we will not be able to discuss" that matter. Sunoto suggested Sabandar might "skirt the issue" with the Foreign Minister by inquiring about possible timeframes for ASEAN to return to Burma after the elections. He stressed that ASEAN's primary role now is to ensure the delivery by July of the USD 90 million in assistance pledged by donors during the November Post-Nargis and Regional Partnerships Conference in Bangkok. ¶4. (SBU) Sunoto later added that ASEAN wants a "neat" handover to the GOB and is keen on ending in a "big bang" by RANGOON 00000072 002.2 OF 003 using the delivery of the USD 90 million to earn the trust and kudos of the GOB so that ASEAN will be able to return after the elections. Although ASEAN Secretary General Surin Pitsuwan had informally suggested assisting the GOB with elections, GOB officials have made clear they are confident they can implement elections on their own and they have not requested technical assistance, Sunoto stated. He stressed that ASEAN intends to abide by the GOB's wishes, as it is a "sovereign organization comprised of sovereign nations." "Wise to Stop While the Time is Right" -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Ambassador Chu Cong Phung, present in his capacity as TCG member due to Vietnam's current chairmanship of ASEAN, offered platitudes celebrating ASEAN's and the GOB's positive roles in Nargis relief and recovery. When we asked for a readout of the recent ASEAN FM meeting in Danang, particularly whether the FMs had discussed the GOB's planned 2010 elections, Ambassador Chu replied that Nyan Win made no announcement regarding timing of the vote. Nyan Win emphasized that the GOB's first priority is to ensure a stable political environment in which to organize the elections. This task is complicated by the presence in Burma of 135 ethnic groups, numerous opposition political parties, and nearly 40 armed groups. ¶6. (SBU) Ambassador Chu continued that the GOB reported to ASEAN FMs that the Nargis recovery phase is "nearly complete" and that Burma's GDP had grown by 4 percent in 2009. Chu Cong Phung said the GOB has made clear it no longer needs ASEAN support so it is unnecessary to discuss further support. Ambassador Chu quoted a Buddhist saying: "It is wise to stop while the time is right." ¶7. (SBU) Several donors and NGOs expressed the view that a continued ASEAN presence could be useful in ensuring continuity in delivering assistance to the Irrawaddy Delta and beyond. Before the TCG's powers were curtailed by the GOB in March 2008 (reftel),the mechanism had served a useful purpose in facilitating donor access. The EU representative observed it is naive to believe ASEAN can end its presence in July and then reenter the Burma environment smoothly following elections. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Sabandar and his colleagues from the ASEAN Secretariat could not have been clearer: ASEAN is preparing to leave Burma by July and has no intention to seek a role during the upcoming election period. We noticed a sharp contrast in tone from last summer, when Sabandar arrived full of ideas and hopes to engage the GOB on a political, not just humanitarian, level. We note that the Vietnamese Ambassador's attitude indicates a sobering departure from the practical and helpful role that past ASEAN chair Thailand played as a member of the TCG. ¶9. (C) The end of the TCG and the impending departure of RANGOON 00000072 003.2 OF 003 ASEAN may not have a direct effect on the future delivery of U.S. assistance, since U.S. aid is not implemented through the Post-Nargis Recovery and Preparedness Plan (PONREPP),and the ability of the TCG to secure visas and access disappeared last March. Nonetheless, ASEAN's departure is likely to have an impact on the logistics of assistance delivery, as well as on monitoring and evaluation by other donors; and the absence of a vigorous TCG-like mechanism to facilitate visas and access is a continuing worry. ¶10. (C) We have requested a private meeting with Sabandar after his session with Nyan Win to see if there is more to ASEAN's current position than he was willing to divulge to a mixed group of diplomats and INGO reps. DINGER