ZUMA KEEPS THE PEACE AT ANC'S 98TH BIRTHDAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 000094

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2020
TAGS: SF PGOV
SUBJECT: ZUMA KEEPS THE PEACE AT ANC'S 98TH BIRTHDAY
CELEBRATION

REF: 09 PRETORIA 2581

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Classified By: Political Counselor Walter N.S. Pflaumer for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) The African National Congress (ANC) held its 98th
anniversary celebration in Kimberley on January 9. More than
30,000 party members attended the event to hear speeches from
President Jacob Zuma and leaders of the Congress of South
African Trade Unions (COSATU) and South African Communist
Party (SACP). Many members were anticipating a showdown
between the ANC and SACP following the communists' treatment
of ANC Youth League President Julius Malema last year. See
Reftel for more information. However, such a showdown did
not occur. Zuma and others preached a message of unity.
And, even if some party members did not hear the message, for
now it seems to have calmed rival forces within the ruling
alliance. End Summary.

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The ANC Turns 98
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2. (C) The ANC held its 98th anniversary celebration in
Kimberley on January 9. Buses from all across the country
filled the city's streets and party members were everywhere
walking into the GWK Stadium. The morning began with
speeches from ANC National Chairperson Baleka Mbete followed
by speeches from COSATU, SACP, the ANC Veterans League, and
the ANC Youth League (ANCYL). Zuma, wearing sunglasses and a
crisp white shirt, spoke last and stressed the importance of
the ANC's history and the party's close ties to the ruling
tripartite alliance. Several themes emerged from the formal
proceedings at the anniversary. Each theme is likely to
evolve in coming months, which will set the course for the
party ahead of the 2012 congress:

-- The ANC wants unity within the alliance. Zuma's speech
centered specifically on the need for a strong partnership
between the ruling party, unions, and communist party.
Addressing the roughly 30,000 party members at the stadium,
Zuma said "all party members must be united behind a program
of action developed by the ANC and its allies." He added, We
will be consistent and firm in acting against abuse of
leadership positions or personal gain and factionalism."
Zuma also noted the working relationship between alliance
partners has improved greatly. He stated, "We consult each
other and work together on key issues that affect our people
as we should." The ANC leader read his remarks from a text,
after which he began dancing to his trademark "Bring Me My
Machine Gun" song. Zuma's dance was the only event that
compelled all party members -- including communist party
members -- to stand in unison. (Note: Poloffs witnessed
firsthand Zuma's point about leaders in the tripartite
alliance consulting each other regularly at the Kimberley
Club following the celebration. After the event, Poloffs
went to the Club for lunch and saw several South African
Broadcasting Corporation trucks parked outside the building.
Inquiries at the desk determined that Zuma was giving a press
conference in his room and that he and SACP Secretary General
Blade Nzimande shared adjoining suites during their stay in
Kimberley. End Note.)

-- Fikile Mbalula's campaign for the position of ANC General
Secretary appears to have begun. Regardless of Zuma's
statements that campaigning for positions ahead of the 2012
national congress should not be a focus of party members,
Mbalula is actively seeking a greater role in the party,
QMbalula is actively seeking a greater role in the party,
according to multiple sources, and his presence at the event
demonstrated this. The Deputy Police Minister took control
of the entertainment portion of the celebration by calling on
radio personalities to play music, yelling at members to
dance, and introducing all of the acts. Local political
commentators noted that Mbalula single-handedly ensured that
delegates did not boo alliance leaders by keeping the "fun"
part of the day on track. The Deputy Police Minister ran his
portion of the celebration in a way that resonated with the
party members and made it clear that he as strong of an
influence in the party as current General Secretary Gwede
Mantashe.


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-- The Veterans League has so far made little impact with the
majority of ANC members. League leader Sandi Sijake spoke at
the event. His speech was the shortest of the day and
attracted hardly any applause from the crowd. It appeared to
Poloffs that many were trying to figure out who he was.
Sijake ended his remarks by quickly turning from the podium
and sitting down. Unlike Nzimande or ANC Youth League
President Julius Malema, he did not acknowledge Zuma on the
stage or interact with him.

-- The Women's League's importance appears to be diminished
in relation to the party's other branches. ANC Women's
League members sat -- dressed in their traditional green
jackets -- in a separate corner of the stadium and did not
have an official presence on the stage. Baleka Mbete and ANC
Deputy Secretary General Thandi Modise (both members of the
league) were on the stage but did not speak on behalf of the
league. One party member Poloff talked to said the women's
league "looked forgotten."

-- Many of the youth are solidly behind Malema. The ANCYL
President has lost some support after his remarks following
the SACP's booing of him last month (see reftel). However,
Malema received more cheers when introduced than any other
speaker other than Zuma. There were signs all around the
stadium reading "100 percent Julius Malema" and "Hand's Off
Our ANC Youth Leader." His speech received large applause
and was largely tame compared to many of his previous
remarks.

-- The communist party remains to the side of the alliance
regardless of Nzimande's ties to Zuma. SACP members dressed
in red shirts sat by themselves in the stadium and were the
only ones to cheer Nzimande after he finished speaking. They
also were the only ones to sing a verse of the SACP's
trademark, "My Mother was a Kitchen Girl" song.

-- Zuma has solidified his position at the top of the party.
One of the most intriguing themes to emerge from the
celebration is how Zuma has come to personify the ANC so
completely, so quickly. All of the speakers included
deferential remarks to Zuma, calling him "Comrade President"
or "Comrade Chair." All of the speakers at some point turned
to him directly when they made their remarks. Moreover, all
of the speakers reaffirmed their staunch support for Zuma and
his leadership. Malema even noted, "Zuma is our President.
We will never stop supporting him." Zuma sat in a large
chair at the front of the stage and remained serious
throughout (in sharp contrast to the many times he flashed
his characteristic smile throughout the ANC's election
campaign last year). In the aftermath of the ANC's 2007
national congress, Zuma talked repeatedly about how he will
always defer to the ANC for decisions. However, the
celebration in Kimberley made it clear that many in the
ruling party and in the alliance defer to him.

-- Zuma's message of unity went unheard by many members who
stood around Poloffs. The great irony of the celebration,
which was meant to strike a tone of unity between the
alliance, was that many party members were talking, playing,
or moving throughout most of Zuma's speech. In the press box
where Poloffs stood, ANC members talked about "how out of
line communists are to boo Malema." One said, "I saw them
(communists) eating at Kentucky Fried Chicken on the way
here. How can they be communist?" Another said, "It was
Qhere. How can they be communist?" Another said, "It was
right for them to boo Malema. He talks too much." Still
another, a young woman from the party said, "We should be
putting our energy together to stop Helen Zille from keeping
hold of the Western Cape." The discussions took place all
the while Zuma was addressing the crowd and saying that the
party must work together to solve problems.

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Anniversary a Future Holiday?
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3. (C) Poloff spoke with ANC contacts following the
celebration. ANC members want January 8 to be a public
holiday. ANC members in Eastern Cape have called for the
issue to be raised during the party's national general
council meeting scheduled for September. ANC spokesperson
Jackson Mthembu told reporters the ANC's National Executive
Committee has yet to discuss the issue. (Note: This issue
was first up for debate during the early 1990s during the
transition to democracy. The ANC ultimately backed down from

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calls for the holiday when negotiators inserted days like
Human Rights Day onto the public holiday calendar. End
Note.)

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Comment
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4. (C) The ANC's celebration did not really resolve any of
the major political questions of the day. Whether tension
between the SACP and the ANCYL will bring down either
Nzimande or Malema remains to be seen. Whether Mbalula has
the clout to take down Mantashe for a senior position in the
party was unanswered. What the celebration did do was
underscore how factionalism remains a problem despite calls
for unity and highlight how critical Zuma is to keeping
different components in the ruling party and alliance happy.
Even if party members were not listening to his words, the
deference he was shown and his place on stage ensured the
message came across. Some of these unanswered questions
probably will have to be dealt with in the next year or so as
we approach the ANC's 2012 congress. For now, however,
without Zuma the event most likely would have been an
uncomfortable family gathering rather than a birthday party.
End Comment.
GIPS