ZUMA KEEPS THE PEACE AT ANC'S 98TH BIRTHDAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 000094 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2020 TAGS: SF PGOV SUBJECT: ZUMA KEEPS THE PEACE AT ANC'S 98TH BIRTHDAY CELEBRATION REF: 09 PRETORIA 2581 PRETORIA 00000094 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Political Counselor Walter N.S. Pflaumer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The African National Congress (ANC) held its 98th anniversary celebration in Kimberley on January 9. More than 30,000 party members attended the event to hear speeches from President Jacob Zuma and leaders of the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) and South African Communist Party (SACP). Many members were anticipating a showdown between the ANC and SACP following the communists' treatment of ANC Youth League President Julius Malema last year. See Reftel for more information. However, such a showdown did not occur. Zuma and others preached a message of unity. And, even if some party members did not hear the message, for now it seems to have calmed rival forces within the ruling alliance. End Summary. -------------- The ANC Turns 98 -------------- ¶2. (C) The ANC held its 98th anniversary celebration in Kimberley on January 9. Buses from all across the country filled the city's streets and party members were everywhere walking into the GWK Stadium. The morning began with speeches from ANC National Chairperson Baleka Mbete followed by speeches from COSATU, SACP, the ANC Veterans League, and the ANC Youth League (ANCYL). Zuma, wearing sunglasses and a crisp white shirt, spoke last and stressed the importance of the ANC's history and the party's close ties to the ruling tripartite alliance. Several themes emerged from the formal proceedings at the anniversary. Each theme is likely to evolve in coming months, which will set the course for the party ahead of the 2012 congress: -- The ANC wants unity within the alliance. Zuma's speech centered specifically on the need for a strong partnership between the ruling party, unions, and communist party. Addressing the roughly 30,000 party members at the stadium, Zuma said "all party members must be united behind a program of action developed by the ANC and its allies." He added, We will be consistent and firm in acting against abuse of leadership positions or personal gain and factionalism." Zuma also noted the working relationship between alliance partners has improved greatly. He stated, "We consult each other and work together on key issues that affect our people as we should." The ANC leader read his remarks from a text, after which he began dancing to his trademark "Bring Me My Machine Gun" song. Zuma's dance was the only event that compelled all party members -- including communist party members -- to stand in unison. (Note: Poloffs witnessed firsthand Zuma's point about leaders in the tripartite alliance consulting each other regularly at the Kimberley Club following the celebration. After the event, Poloffs went to the Club for lunch and saw several South African Broadcasting Corporation trucks parked outside the building. Inquiries at the desk determined that Zuma was giving a press conference in his room and that he and SACP Secretary General Blade Nzimande shared adjoining suites during their stay in Kimberley. End Note.) -- Fikile Mbalula's campaign for the position of ANC General Secretary appears to have begun. Regardless of Zuma's statements that campaigning for positions ahead of the 2012 national congress should not be a focus of party members, Mbalula is actively seeking a greater role in the party, QMbalula is actively seeking a greater role in the party, according to multiple sources, and his presence at the event demonstrated this. The Deputy Police Minister took control of the entertainment portion of the celebration by calling on radio personalities to play music, yelling at members to dance, and introducing all of the acts. Local political commentators noted that Mbalula single-handedly ensured that delegates did not boo alliance leaders by keeping the "fun" part of the day on track. The Deputy Police Minister ran his portion of the celebration in a way that resonated with the party members and made it clear that he as strong of an influence in the party as current General Secretary Gwede Mantashe. PRETORIA 00000094 002.2 OF 003 -- The Veterans League has so far made little impact with the majority of ANC members. League leader Sandi Sijake spoke at the event. His speech was the shortest of the day and attracted hardly any applause from the crowd. It appeared to Poloffs that many were trying to figure out who he was. Sijake ended his remarks by quickly turning from the podium and sitting down. Unlike Nzimande or ANC Youth League President Julius Malema, he did not acknowledge Zuma on the stage or interact with him. -- The Women's League's importance appears to be diminished in relation to the party's other branches. ANC Women's League members sat -- dressed in their traditional green jackets -- in a separate corner of the stadium and did not have an official presence on the stage. Baleka Mbete and ANC Deputy Secretary General Thandi Modise (both members of the league) were on the stage but did not speak on behalf of the league. One party member POLOFF talked to said the women's league "looked forgotten." -- Many of the youth are solidly behind Malema. The ANCYL President has lost some support after his remarks following the SACP's booing of him last month (see reftel). However, Malema received more cheers when introduced than any other speaker other than Zuma. There were signs all around the stadium reading "100 percent Julius Malema" and "Hand's Off Our ANC Youth Leader." His speech received large applause and was largely tame compared to many of his previous remarks. -- The communist party remains to the side of the alliance regardless of Nzimande's ties to Zuma. SACP members dressed in red shirts sat by themselves in the stadium and were the only ones to cheer Nzimande after he finished speaking. They also were the only ones to sing a verse of the SACP's trademark, "My Mother was a Kitchen Girl" song. -- Zuma has solidified his position at the top of the party. One of the most intriguing themes to emerge from the celebration is how Zuma has come to personify the ANC so completely, so quickly. All of the speakers included deferential remarks to Zuma, calling him "Comrade President" or "Comrade Chair." All of the speakers at some point turned to him directly when they made their remarks. Moreover, all of the speakers reaffirmed their staunch support for Zuma and his leadership. Malema even noted, "Zuma is our President. We will never stop supporting him." Zuma sat in a large chair at the front of the stage and remained serious throughout (in sharp contrast to the many times he flashed his characteristic smile throughout the ANC's election campaign last year). In the aftermath of the ANC's 2007 national congress, Zuma talked repeatedly about how he will always defer to the ANC for decisions. However, the celebration in Kimberley made it clear that many in the ruling party and in the alliance defer to him. -- Zuma's message of unity went unheard by many members who stood around Poloffs. The great irony of the celebration, which was meant to strike a tone of unity between the alliance, was that many party members were talking, playing, or moving throughout most of Zuma's speech. In the press box where Poloffs stood, ANC members talked about "how out of line communists are to boo Malema." One said, "I saw them (communists) eating at Kentucky Fried Chicken on the way here. How can they be communist?" Another said, "It was Qhere. How can they be communist?" Another said, "It was right for them to boo Malema. He talks too much." Still another, a young woman from the party said, "We should be putting our energy together to stop Helen Zille from keeping hold of the Western Cape." The discussions took place all the while Zuma was addressing the crowd and saying that the party must work together to solve problems. -------------- Anniversary a Future Holiday? -------------- ¶3. (C) POLOFF spoke with ANC contacts following the celebration. ANC members want January 8 to be a public holiday. ANC members in Eastern Cape have called for the issue to be raised during the party's national general council meeting scheduled for September. ANC spokesperson Jackson Mthembu told reporters the ANC's National Executive Committee has yet to discuss the issue. (Note: This issue was first up for debate during the early 1990s during the transition to democracy. The ANC ultimately backed down from PRETORIA 00000094 003.2 OF 003 calls for the holiday when negotiators inserted days like Human Rights Day onto the public holiday calendar. End Note.) -------------- Comment -------------- ¶4. (C) The ANC's celebration did not really resolve any of the major political questions of the day. Whether tension between the SACP and the ANCYL will bring down either Nzimande or Malema remains to be seen. Whether Mbalula has the clout to take down Mantashe for a senior position in the party was unanswered. What the celebration did do was underscore how factionalism remains a problem despite calls for unity and highlight how critical Zuma is to keeping different components in the ruling party and alliance happy. Even if party members were not listening to his words, the deference he was shown and his place on stage ensured the message came across. Some of these unanswered questions probably will have to be dealt with in the next year or so as we approach the ANC's 2012 congress. For now, however, without Zuma the event most likely would have been an uncomfortable family gathering rather than a birthday party. End Comment. GIPS