CZECH COMMENTS ON MOBILIZING PRESSURE TO PERSUADE

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRAGUE 000058 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/CE JBERGEMANN, STATE FOR NEA/FO ECATALANO, AND STATE FOR ISN/RA RNEPHEW E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/03/2015 TAGS: PGOV PREL EZ IR PARM UNSC SUBJECT: CZECH COMMENTS ON MOBILIZING PRESSURE TO PERSUADE IRAN TO ENGAGE REF: A. STATE 9124 ¶B. PRAGUE 36 Classified By: POLEC Counselor Charles O.Blaha for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) We engaged Czech MFA Political Director Ivo Sramek on February 3 to outline the USG perspective on where things stand with Iran and to make the case for increasing pressure. Sramek was clear that the Czechs "absolutely agree" with the USG perspective on next steps, especially the need now to pursue the second track of increasing pressure. Sramek stated that the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) should be the first route to apply this pressure, while acknowledging that the U.S. and EU should continue to consult in order to be prepared to adopt autonomous measures if little or nothing is achieved via the UNSC. The Czech sense, according to Sramek, is that Russia is prepared to "go along" with Iran sanctions within the UNSC, but that China remains a key stumbling block. -------------- EU Consensus on Specific Measures May Be Hard to Achieve -------------- ¶2. (C) With respect to what the EU might be willing to consider in terms of additional "autonomous measures," Sramek acknowledged that the EU's Foreign Affairs Council (FAC) discussed three baskets of goods at its January meeting: 1) targeting specific economic industries (such as the oil industry, machinery related to the oil industry, and insurance companies that insure oil businesses),2) preventing the curtailment of freedom of speech, and 3) targeting specific people within the regime (Ref B). According to Sramek, the EU Foreign Ministers plan to revisit this issue at the February FAC, as this will be after debate within the UNSC. ¶3. (C) If the UNSC yields insufficient results, Sramek opined that there would be EU consensus for some form of additional measures against Iran. However, he predicted debate within the EU over what those measures should be. Sramek stated that some member states remain unconvinced as to the efficacy of particular sanctions, and fear that sanctions may be used by the regime in Iran in an effort to rally Iranian public support against Western governments. Sramek suggested that several European member states were also hesitant to target specific industries (such as the oil industry),fearing that such a sanction could backfire, as well as raise oil prices within the EU. ¶4. (SBU) In order to help rally support for additional U.S. and EU measures following UNSC discussions, Sramek suggested that the USG offer concrete proposals for the Europeans to consider. He also suggested personal engagement by high-level USG officials (A/S or above) could have an effect as well. Thompson-Jones