SURINAME MAY 2010 ELECTIONS: Parties and Coalitions - The

UNCLAS PARAMARIBO 000076 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL NS SUBJECT: SURINAME MAY 2010 ELECTIONS: Parties and Coalitions - The Only Sure Thing is a Shifting Landscape REF: 09 PARAMARIBO 287 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Suriname's political parties are entering the home stretch of negotiations, as parties and formal coalitions must register with the Central Polling Authority prior to the March 16-21 deadline in order to participate in the May 25 national elections. The public is bombarded by almost daily speculation and announcements related to the composition, dissensions, break-ups, and partnering among the parties within the three current coalitions (New Front, Mega-Combination, and Midden Blok). Post expects that the extent to which these coalitions coalesce and stay together will dominate the political landscape, with political maneuvering and realignments continuing through and beyond election day. This report outlines the current players, coalitions, and possible factors and personalities involved in Suriname's evolving political environment and upcoming elections. Prospects are good for well-organized, free and fair elections. As to who will win, Suriname's future political line-up is still anyone's guess. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) There are some 40-50 political parties in Suriname, but fewer than 25 meet the minimum size to participate in the elections. For many, whom they choose to partner with before and after the upcoming elections will determine how many National Assembly seats they get, and whether they are a member of the ruling coalition. In the meantime, a newly released public opinion poll focused on the New Front and the Mega-Combination as the two contenders in the upcoming elections. The poll also stated that the New Front coalition only stands a chance of winning against the Mega-Combination if Pertjajah Luhur remains a part of the coalition. ¶3. (U) While opinion polls and commentary have already begun to survey voter support for what are expected to be the three main coalitions contesting the elections, all parties remain occupied in negotiating with potential coalition partners. Suriname's electoral system assigns National Assembly seats on a proportional basis (Reftel),so larger coalitions have the advantage in capturing National Assembly seats. Formal registration of parties and coalitions to participate in the election will occur March 16-21, 2010, at the Central Polling Authority. ¶4. (U) After coalitions are registered, and even after the elections, adjustments can and probably will be made on which parties will cooperate with whom to form the next government. As parties and coalitions count their Assembly seats, they will decide how to divide the spoils. In the past, entire parties have forsaken their coalition allegiances to join another coalition. In one case, a group of newly seated National Assembly members crossed their own party line to join in forming the government with another coalition. ¶5. (U) In Suriname, politics are personal, and coalitions are often formed and dissolved based on personal relationships and/or feuds rather than on political platforms. Several close Embassy contacts have opined that Suriname is actually moving backwards rather than forward when it comes to parties formulating policies and platforms for their campaigns. They even go so far as to say that elections are a mechanism for parties to redistribute the wealth they have accumulated to their patrons. ¶6. (U) Because parties and coalitions in Suriname are based little on belief systems, political relationships can easily morph into unexpected alliances. Where the parties and coalitions stand in their partnerships can and is evolving quickly. Who they will choose as bed fellows - temporary or longer term - remains to be seen. The New Front Plus Coalition ¶7. (U) The current ruling government, the "New Front Plus" coalition, is composed of eight political parties. In the 2005 campaign, the New Front coalition was formed in January and ran as a group of four parties: National Party of Suriname (NPS),United Reform Party (VHP)(Note: another common translation of the party name is the Progressive Reform Party),Pertjajah Luhur (PL),and Surinamese Labor Party (SPA). When the coalition failed to garner a majority of National Assembly seats, the New Front combined with an additional four parties to form the current government. Three of the four were Maroon parties that ran as the A-1 Combination coalition - General Liberation and Development Party (ABOP),Union of Brotherhood and Unity in Politics (BEP),and SEEKA. The fourth party was Democratic Alternative 91 (DA91),which originally ran as a member of the Alternative Forum Coalition and, post-election (2005),abandoned its coalition members to join the "New Front Plus" ruling coalition. (2005 seats per party: NPS-8; VHP-7; PL-6; SPA-2; A-Combination-5; and DA91-1. ¶8. (U) As of February 3, the New Front Plus coalition parties have not committed to running in 2010 as a coalition. Only the NPS and the VHP, long-time partners, have formally committed to a partnership under their "brotherhood principle." It is widely believed that this year the coalition's presidential candidate will come from the VHP (in all past NPS/VHP governments, the VHP has been relegated to the vice-president slot). Local interlocutors told us that Vice President Ramdien Sardjoe would like to be president, but that current Minister of Justice and Police Chandrikapersad Santokhi would be a more viable cross-party candidate. ¶9. (U) So far the NPS and VHP have been decidedly cool on the prospects of inviting other coalition members to run with them in May. On February 1, President Venetiaan (NPS) stated the New Front Plus coalition (as is) will not stay together just to retain control of power. The President was further quoted as saying the parties must ensure their strategies are fully aligned, and that they have clear agreement on what they stand for, before forming a coalition. It is does not appear that this was achieved during the coalition's meeting on the evening of February 3. ¶10. (U) The lion's share of talk about the New Front Plus coalition centers on its relationship with Pertjajah Luhur (PL). It is widely believed that long-time concerns about PL politicians' reportedly corrupt practices have damaged NPS and VHP standing with the voting public. The PL, on the other hand, stresses its contributions to the ruling government. Although PL brought six National Assembly seats, the PL maintains it helped the NPS gain an additional 4 National Assembly seats in 2005 by swinging Javanese ethnic voters to the NPS. Based on this, in 2005, PL Chair Paul Somohardjo pushed for the presidency. His presidential aspirations if anything have seemed to grow stronger, which could complicate the NPS decision to transfer the presidency to the VHP, if the NPS accepts that it needs PL's seats. ¶11. (U) What is most clear is the apparent unreliability of PL as a partner. On January 6, the media reported Somohardjo had stated he would deal with any political coalition in preparing for the elections, not just the New Front, especially due to complaints from New Front partners about the practices of PL politicians. One tabloid reported that PL has been reaching out to other ethnic Javanese parties (currently in the Mega-Combination). On another occasion, Somohardjo reportedly said he was willing to have PL enter the elections separate from the New Front in order to "maintain his friendships," inferring that PL would join the coalition after the elections. Much was read into a January 21 incident when Somohardjo, who currently serves as the Speaker of the National Assembly, did not stop proceedings to announce President Venetiaan's arrival and instead left the President waiting outside the chamber until the President entered unannounced. Media reports quickly said Somohardjo was trying to curry favor with the opposition, but his act was later condemned by one opposition party. Academics have told us that if PL does not join the New Front coalition, they expect the VHP in Nickerie District to quit the national VHP party and form its own party in order to become a coalition partner with PL, all to preserve its one National Assembly seat in Nickerie District. The VHP lost two seats in the 2005 elections to other parties due to complaints of voters about insufficient land grants; few such complaints have been made by VHP constituents with PL heading the Ministry of Physical Planning, Land, and Forestry Management. ¶12. (U) The NPS and VHP relationship with the SPA party has drawn less attention. The SPA party, which ran as a coalition partner and won two National Assembly seats in 2005, suffered from massive internal problems after its party chair, Siegfried Gilds, was convicted of money laundering in 2009. Gilds stepped down as chair, which led to a heated contest between party leaders as to who his successor would be -- a fight which ended up in court. The internal SPA upheaval is expected to further reduce its chances of winning Assembly seats this year to one or none. On January 11, SPA chair Guno Castelen stating that SPA's relationship with the New Front coalition is "a marriage." January 28 media reports stated that Castelen met with Venetiaan to discuss a continued relationship and Venetiaan responded that he "was not opposed." The results of this discussion have not been formalized. ¶13. (U) The relationship of NPS and VHP with the A-Combination coalition leaves much to be desired. The A-Combination coalition is a thorn in the side of the New Front Plus because it cannot credibly campaign against Bouterse as a former military dictator due to the terrible track record of its own partner, ABOP chair Ronny Brunswijk, during the Interior War and after. The A-Combination also has grown increasingly vocal about its dissatisfaction with its ruling coalition partners. A key policy initiative for the A-Combination has been a new national health insurance scheme, and the A-Combination has threatened to withdraw from the ruling coalition if it is not set in place before the elections. Several other A-Combination initiatives proposed by the ministries they control, and which favor their constituents, have not been approved by the vice president. After the A-Combination criticized its coalition partners during a January mass rally, President Venetiaan responded that he is looking forward to seeing if the A-Combination submits its resignation from the coalition and, if so, he is fine with that. In conversation with academics, we have heard that it is not clear whether the A-Combination itself will stick together, since BEP chair Caprino Allendy is reportedly interested in partnering with DA91. ¶14. (U) The NPS and VHP held their first serious discussions with other members of the New Front Coalition on Wednesday, February 3, a meeting which reportedly lasted until early morning February 4. The media reported that the NPS, VHP, and SPA jointly spoke to the press after the meeting, while PL chair Somohardjo announced a separate press conference to be held later on February 4. Some A-Combination leaders reportedly told media reporters that the A-Combination would enter the elections alone, while another A-Combination leader said there was still room for cooperation with other parties. The New Front Coalition meeting left few questions answered, although more is expected to become apparent over coming weeks. As election day grows nearer, Embassy contacts have commented that the New Front may be doing too little, too late. The Mega-Combination ¶15. (U) In 2005, when the National Democratic Party (NDP),led by Desire Bouterse, ran solo for the National Assembly, it landed the most National Assembly seats of any single party -- 15. In preparation for 2010, the NDP took to heart the lesson that the proportional seat assignment system favors larger coalitions and formed the Mega-Combination Coalition. That is now the largest of the formal political coalitions, including the Democratic National Platform 2000 (DNP-2000),New Suriname (NS),Kerukunan Tulodo Pernatan Inggil (KTPI),Pendawa Lima (PeLi),Party Pembangungan Rakjat Suriname (PPRS),and Progressive Laborers and Agrarians Union (PALU). ¶16. (U) The Mega-Combination has supplanted the main 2005 opposition coalition, the People's Alliance for Improvement (VVV). The VVV, which only won five National Assembly seats in 2005, was composed of DNP-2000, PPRS, KTPI, PeLi, all of which have since joined the Mega-Combination. Another VVV member, the Basic Party for Renewal and Democracy (BVD) originally joined the Mega-Combination but withdrew membership (or was kicked out) after allegations the BVD was recruiting NDP members. Not a member of the old VVV, the New Suriname Party (NS) joined the Mega-Combination and subsequently withdrew. The Progressive Laborers and Agrarians Union (PALU),also a non-VVV member, joined the Mega-Combination as well. ¶17. (U) Embassy interlocutors have told us to keep our eyes on former President Jules Wijdenbosch, the charismatic leader of DNP-2000 and chair of the 2005 VVV. In their view, he miscalculated when he later agreed for the DNP-2000 to join the Mega-Combination. Sworn enemies, Wijdenbosch and Bouterse reconciled in order to form the current coalition. Bouterse's 2009 announcement of his own candidacy for president showed clearly, however, there is little room for Wijdenbosch's political aspirations in the Bouterse-led Mega-Combination. In 2005, the VVV served as an alternative to both the ruling government and to Bouterse. With Wijdenbosch now having little chance of power even if Mega-Combination wins, and the loss of the advantage of being opposed to Bouterse, DNP-2000 seems likely to lose even more seats if it remains in the Mega-Combination. Embassy contacts predicted to us that DNP-2000 will leave the Mega-Combination before election day. ¶18. (U) Regarding Bouterse's 2009 announcement that he would be the Mega-Combination's candidate for president if they carry the National Assembly elections, academics have told us that no one is sure if Bouterse seriously intends to contest for the presidency. Some have interpreted this more as a ploy to retain control of the Mega-Combination itself, while others say that Bouterse has reached the point in his life where he wants the title of president. According to our contacts, the most viable NDP presidential candidate would likely be National Assembly member Jennifer Geerlings-Simons. The Midden Blok ¶19. (U) The Union of Progressive Surinamers party (UPS)and the Alternative 1 (A1) Coalition formed a new coalition, the Midden Blok (Middle Block) in preparation for the 2010 elections. In 2005, the UPS party had partnered with the Party for Democracy and Development in Unity (DOE),which is now running alone. The A1 coalition, which ran as its own coalition in 2005, is made up of several smaller parties: Democrats for the 21st century (DN21), Alternative Forum (AF),Political Wing of the FAL (PVF),and Trefpunt 2000. Of the A1 Coalition, only the PVF won National Assembly seats (two) in 2005. ¶20. (U) In recent months, the Midden Blok has all but disappeared from both news reporting and political discourse. Embassy contacts have told us this is mainly due to the infighting among Midden Blok members. It is reported that former VHP policy advisor and current UPS chair Henry Ori has had negotiations with the VHP. Another group splintered off the UPS part of the Midden Blok and formed a new political party: 1 Suriname. Originally expected to be a strong, third contender in the 2010 elections, the Midden Blok is disappearing from the scene as its members look at other coalition options. This development may for all practical purposes turn the 2010 elections into a two-coalition race. The Independent Parties ¶21. (U) Both the BVD and DOE are planning to enter the elections without partners. The DOE, a political party chaired by the brother of the Director of the Democracy Unit at the Anton de Kom University of Suriname, has high ideals for party management and a political platform, which may account for why it cannot find a suitable partner. The BVD, which is headed by one of Suriname's richest men, Dilip Sardjoe, withdrew from the Mega-Combination in fall 2009. Embassy contacts have told us the BVD is in a tight position because it originally splintered from the VHP in 2005 because of its insistence on a Hindustani, and not another NPS-led government. Due to bad blood, it is unlikely the BVD would join the New Front again, and it therefore has few options other than to go it alone. There have been rumors, however, that the BVD is having discussions with both New Front member VHP and Midden Blok member PVF about potential partnerships. The new "1 Suriname" party may also be planning to run alone after breaking from the Midden Blok, but it is unclear if the party meets the minimum size requirements to participate in the elections. The New Suriname Party is also running solo after quitting the Mega-Combination, but may be looking at joining the Midden Blok. ¶22. (SBU) Comment. Suriname's 2010 election campaign is shaping up to be as complicated as the number of political parties can make it. Both major coalitions have significant vulnerabilities and bad characters, but both also can and will make appeals to voters that they are best positioned to govern. The shifting coalitions and reports of backroom cross-party negotiations will continue right up to the deadline for party and coalition registrations and likely beyond. For now, we are pleased that the campaign seems likely to be peaceful and generally well-organized, and voter rolls have been carefully reviewed. We are optimistic the elections will be considered free and fair. As to who will win, with over three months to go, Suriname's future political line-up is still anyone's guess. NAY