CANADIAN PLANS IN AFGHANISTAN POST-2011

id: 249504 date: 2/18/2010 22:11 refid: 10OTTAWA67 origin: Embassy Ottawa classification: CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN destination: 10STATE14366 header: VZCZCXRO7192 OO RUEHSL DE RUEHOT #0067 0492211 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O R 182211Z FEB 10 FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0364 INFO ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE NATO EU COLLECTIVE RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC -------------- header ends -------------- C O N F I D E N T I A L OTTAWA 000067 NOFORN SIPDIS AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PASS TO AMCONSUL QUEBEC AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PASS TO APP WINNIPEG AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PASS TO AMEMBASSY PODGORICA AMEMBASSY ATHENS PASS TO AMCONSUL THESSALONIKI AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL YEKATERINBURG E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/18 TAGS: PREL EAID MOPS MARR AF CA HA SUBJECT: CANADIAN PLANS IN AFGHANISTAN POST-2011 REF: STATE 14366 CLASSIFIED BY: Scott Bellard, Minister Counselor, Ottawa, POL; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) ¶1. (C/NF) Summary. Canada will not only end its military mission in Afghanistan in 2011 but will likely significantly scale back its assistance after 2011 and offer only relatively modest contributions to Afghan Trust Funds. A top priority is likely to be the Afghan-Pakistan border programs. With growing concerns over budget deficits (which are unusual in recent Canadian history) , Canadian leaders will be loathe to make any new generous commitments for Afghanistan in what is already an unpopular cause within Canada. This is in contrast to the outpouring of goodwill (and donations) for Haiti that ordinary Canadians have shown in the recent weeks. End Summary. ¶2. (C/NF) In a meeting with PolMinCouns on February 18, Foreign Minister Lawrence Cannon's senior policy advisor (Americas, Afghanistan, Arctic) Regan Watts (please protect) laid out Canada's current thinking on Canada's role in Afghanistan post-2011, when its military mission will have ended. He said that the Cabinet had recently examined three options - small, medium, and large - and had opted for the small role. Contributions to various trust funds - for the Afghan National Army, the Afghan National Police, and/or the Reconciliation Fund - would likely at the maximum would total no more than $100 million over a multi-year period. There will be no specific new funding requests for Afghanistan in the 2010 budget that the government will present to Parliament on March 4, although Canada's five-year commitment for C$1.9 billion through the end of 2011 remains intact. The Cabinet may nonetheless decide on some initial disbursements for the trust funds in April out of existing funds, in part in response to Secretary Clinton's recent requests to Minister Cannon. New developmental and humanitarian commitments for 2012 and beyond will probably not emerge until the 2011 budget process in spring of that year. ¶3. (C/NF) Watts added that he expects the top funding priority to be the Afghanistan/Pakistan Border Prosperity Initiative, building on Canada's successful role in the Dubai Process. He noted that Canada believes its own experience with managing border relations with the U.S. made this priority especially attractive and relevant. ¶4. (C/NF) Watts promised to explore the option of providing trainers for the Afghan National Security Forces (reftel),but wondered about whether it might be possible to offer such training after 2011 in a third country, i.e. Russia. Pol/miloff will follow up with working level officials at the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade and Department of National Defence. Watts said that Prime Minister Stephen Harper remained adamant about having no Canadian troops in Afghanistan after December 2011 beyond those required for Embassy security. ¶5. (C/NF) Watts also noted that Canadian officials increasingly viewed Haiti as overtaking Afghanistan as its main foreign policy priority (after relations with the U.S.) and its major assistance recipient, especially in light of post-earthquake rehabilitation. Haiti is currently the second largest recipient of Canadian aid. ¶6. (C/NF) Comment: While this policy course is not yet set in stone or irreversible, the trend lines have been clear for some time, and there is no evident political will by either the Conservatives or the Liberals to revisit the issue. Popular support for additional humanitarian aid for Haiti now makes it even less likely that the government will go out on a political limb to provide significant new resources for Afghanistan. JACOBSON =======================CABLE ENDS============================