Tales of the U.S.-Canada Border #1 - Who Goes Where

UNCLAS OTTAWA 000140 DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CAN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON CA EIND ETRD SOCI SMIG SUBJECT: Tales of the U.S.-Canada Border #1 - Who Goes Where ¶1. (U) Summary: Canadians regularly complain to U.S. officials that increased U.S. security measures such as the June 2009 Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative passport requirement have stifled cross-border travel and U.S. tourist visits to Canada. Recent Statistics Canada figures show that while U.S. visits to Canada steadily declined between 2003 and 2008, Canadian visits to the U.S. actually increased during the same period. Factors such as the rise of the Canadian dollar and the more severe recession in the U.S. may have had a longer lasting and more significant impact than increased security measures. End summary. U.S. Canada Cross-Border Travel Trends -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) On January 21 Statistics Canada reported that travel from Canada to the United States increased between October and November 2009 by 3.4 percent while travel from the United States to Canada increased during the same period by 0.8 percent. Despite this one month increase, however, in recent years travel by US residents to Canada has been on a steady decline even as travel by Canadians to the United States has increased. ¶3. (U) According to Statistics Canada figures, in 2008 there were 43,613,000 visits to the United States from Canada, up 21 percent from 2003. By contrast, in that same year there were 22,605,000 visits to Canada from United States, down 35 percent from 2003. (Note: these figures include multiple visits by the same traveler and persons in transit from third countries.) Not only is the decline in U.S.-based travelers significant in relative terms but, given that the population of the United States is roughly ten times that of Canada, there is a significant disparity in absolute terms as well. Five years ago, the numbers were roughly equal, with each side sending approximately 35 million visitors across the border. Visitors from the United States to Canada (one or more days; thousands of travelers) Visitors from Canada to the United States (one or more days; thousands of travelers) Reports are available at http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/66-201-x/66-201- x2008000-eng.htm andalso at http://cansim2.statcan.gc.ca/cgi-win/cnsmcgi. pgm?Lang=E&SP_Action=Result&SP_ID=4007&SP_TYP =5&SP_Sort=1&SP_Portal=2 Why are U.S. visits declining? -------------- �0A;¶4. (U) Many Canadians complain to U.S. officials that American security requirements are the reason for fewer U.S. visitors to Canada: however; the decline could be the result of several factors including changes to border crossing requirements for travelers, the effects of the economic recession, or changes to the exchange rate. -- Border Crossing ¶5. (U) On June 1, 2009, the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative went into effect requiring travelers at land borders to use a passport or enhanced driver's license to enter the United States. Both the air and land requirements also applied to U.S. residents returning to the United States. There is anecdotal evidence that the WHTI led to a downturn in cross-border land traffic in the latter half of 2009. However when a similar requirement was introduced for air travel in January 2007, visits to the US from Canada actually increased in 2008. Similarly, monthly data following June 2009 show an overall increase in land travel from Canada to the U.S. despite the addition of passport requirements. -- Recession ¶6. (U) The economic downturn combined with changes to the exchange rate may offer a more plausible explanation for declining U.S. visits to Canada and increased Canadian visits to the United States. First, Canadians may have more money to spend on travel since Canada has been less hard hit by the effects of the recession. From December 2007 to October 2009, the U.S unemployment rate has doubled from 4.9 percent to 10.2 percent. During the same period, Canada's unemployment rate rose from 5.2 percent to 7.7 percent. Average economic growth in Canada declined from 2.86 percent in 2006 to -2.9 percent in 2009, while in the United States annual growth declined from 2.65 percent to -3.23 percent during the same period. While the magnitude of the decline is about the same, the Canadian economy was relatively stronger at the beginning of the recession. -- Exchange Rate ¶7. (U) Since 2003, the Canadian dollar has been appreciating relative to the US dollar. During the period from 2000 to the end of 2004, the average exchange rate of the Canadian dollar was 69 cents U.S., but from 2005 to the end of 2009, the average exchange rate has been 89 cents. The most dramatic period of appreciation began in the summer of 2007 and between October 2007 and February 2008 the Canadian dollar hit and exceeded parity several times. This was the first time the two currencies traded at par since November 1976 and, throughout the autumn of 2007, the Canadian media made frequent reports about large numbers of Canadians heading south for cross-border shopping and more affordable vacations. As of February 1, 2010, one Canadian dollar was worth 94 cents U.S. Who goes south and who goes north? -------------- - ¶8. (U) Ranked according to number of individual trips, the top five states visited by Canadians in 2008 were New York, Florida, Washington, Michigan and California. However, for longer-term vacations, Canadians spent more than 48 million visitor nights in Florida, far surpassing second-place California (approx. 11 million visitor nights). In total, Canadians enjoyed more than 144,000,000 visitor nights in the United States in the course of more than 43 million visits during 2008. On an annual basis, Canadians spent the most money in Florida ($3 billion),California ($1 billion), New York ($895 million) and Nevada ($871 million). In total, Canadians spent nearly $12 billion on travel and tourism in the United States in 2008. (Americans spent approximately $6.1 billion in Canada.) ¶9. (U) According to Statistics Canada, sixty percent of U.S.-bound Canadian travelers are over 45 years of age and they travel to the United States twice as often by car than by plane. The average traveler spends about 82 dollars per night on food, accommodation, fuel and recreation, unless he/she is from Saskatchewan in which case per night spending rises to $108. And, if a Canadian is lured by the bright lights of Vegas, individual per night spending rises to 176 dollars. (At $146 per night, Washington DC ranks second in per night spending by Canadians.) The average length of stay by Canadians in the United States is 5.6 nights. ¶10. (U) The majority of U.S. travelers to Canada are also aged 45 and over and more often travel by car. Their top three destinations are Ontario, British Columbia, and Quebec. In total, Americans spent more than 51,000,000 visitor nights in Canada the course of more than 22 million visits during 2008.Although there are fewer American travelers coming to Canada than the reverse, average per person spending by Americans is higher at 122 dollars per night. The highest per person spending is in Quebec at $145 per night and lowest is in the Atlantic provinces at $102 per night. Economy, more than passports, influences traveler choices -------------- -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Comment: Although there is not a definitive study of why U.S. travel to Canada has declined, given the strong exchange rate and recession statistics noted above, it is clearly simplistic to focus all blame on increased security requirements -- especially as they do not seem to have slowed Canadians heading to the United States. End comment. JACOBSON