NORWEGIANS DEEPLY PESSIMISTIC ON FMCT PROSPECTS IN CD

C O N F I D E N T I A L OSLO 000073 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/19 TAGS: PARM MNUC KNNP PREL NO SUBJECT: NORWEGIANS DEEPLY PESSIMISTIC ON FMCT PROSPECTS IN CD REF: 10 STATE 13698 DERIVED FROM: DSCG 05-1 (B),(D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Norwegian Ambassador for Disarmament Affairs, Knut Langeland, sees little hope for the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT) in the Conference on Disarmament (CD),and painted a picture of the Program of Work (POW) and subsequent negotiations as totally stymied by cynical diplomatic strategies from Pakistan, India, North Korea, Iran and China, with Pakistan merely doing the heavy lifting of blocking progress at the moment. Langeland believes there need to be "several more years of frustration" before the FMCT is pulled out of the CD framework, by which time all those interested in seeing a real FMCT will have realized that geopolitics prevent negotiation of an FMCT by non Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT) members. End Summary. ¶2. (C) POLOFF had frank and substantive discussions with Ambassador for Disarmament Affairs Knut Langeland of the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) on Friday, February 19, using reftel points. Langeland expressed Norway's frustration with the way the CD functions, and said that it has not been a serious forum for negotiations since 1998. He said that the preamble of the NPT puts the issues covered by the FMCT (and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT)) under the NPT umbrella, and it is his opinion that ultimately, that is the forum to which the FMCT must move. Langeland stated that this was his assessment, given in confidence to the U.S. government, and is not Norwegian policy as such. ¶3. (C) Langeland said that Pakistan's intransigence is dictated from China, and that Pakistan would never take a stance on the FMCT that China would not approve. But China is not the only problem, according to Langeland. India, North Korea and Iran would each block full negotiations on the FMCT if Pakistan were not doing the work for them. That said, Langeland evaluated that compromise on the FMCT "simply will not fly in Pakistan at this time, because the regime cannot afford to look weak." ¶4. (C) Langeland speculated that last year, the Obama "aura" made it too difficult for Pakistan to block the POW, so instead they blocked the actual start of negotiations. This year, the Pakistanis have gone back to their previous position. Both Pakistan and China believe they do not yet have enough fissile material-Pakistan because it is not done building up its stocks, China because it is unsure how many warheads it needs before being able to assure a second strike capability on the United States if the U.S. goes ahead with some sort of missile defense against North Korea, which Langeland says China feels threatened by. ¶5. (C) Langeland agreed that side events at the CD were best used not as "academic" sessions, but as solid negotiating preparations. They are best used as a means to sorting out different models for the FMCT and different proposed FMCT agreement texts, he said. WHITE