NORWAY OPEN TO INCREASED PRESSURE ON IRAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OSLO 000061 SIPDIS AMEMBASSY ANKARA PASS TO AMCONSUL ADANA AMEMBASSY ASTANA PASS TO AMCONSUL ALMATY AMEMBASSY BERLIN PASS TO AMCONSUL DUSSELDORF AMEMBASSY BERLIN PASS TO AMCONSUL LEIPZIG AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PASS TO AMEMBASSY PODGORICA AMEMBASSY HELSINKI PASS TO AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG AMEMBASSY ATHENS PASS TO AMCONSUL THESSALONIKI AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL VLADIVOSTOK AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL YEKATERINBURG E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/03 TAGS: PARM PREL IR UNSC NO SUBJECT: NORWAY OPEN TO INCREASED PRESSURE ON IRAN REF: 10 STATE 09124 DERIVED FROM: DSCG 05-1 B, D ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Political Director of the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Vegard Ellefsen, responded receptively to all of reftel talking points, delivered by U.S. Ambassador to Norway Barry White. Ellefsen said that Norway would gladly support and easily adopt stricter measures at the UN Security Council (UNSC),but also mentioned that some voices in the GON, especially at the embassy in Tehran, believed that sanctions could be counterproductive. Any potential "coalition of the willing" that adopts measures more stringent than those possible to obtain in the UNSC would be more legally tricky for the Norwegian government to sign on to. Norway does, however, view the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran with alarm, and Ellefsen suggested that Foreign Minister Stoere might be interested in assembling a coalition, based for example on the Group of 7 disarmament group, to build political support in the UN. End Summary. TIME FOR IRAN TO STEP UP -------------- ¶2. (C) Ambassador Barry White met with Political Director Vegard Ellefsen on February 2 to discuss next steps on Iran, using reftel talking points. After Ambassador White stated the U.S. position, Ellefsen took the opportunity to state that likeminded countries were all aligning behind President Obama, whom he described as a "mobilizer" on the disarmament issue. As for Iran, Ellefsen said "we agree it's high time that Iran step up to the plate," and said that President Obama's whole approach to the issue of dealing with Iran has been admirable, mentioning in particular his Cairo speech. Ambassador White brought up Foreign Minister Stoere's February 1 speech on disarmament, in which Stoere emphatically outlined the need for a comprehensive approach to security and disarmament, and mentioned Iran's challenge to this important agenda. (Stoere's speech can be found at: www.regjeringen.no/dep/ud/aktuelt/taler_artik ler/ utenriksministeren/2010/disarmament.html?id=5 92550) NORWAY PREFERS TO WORK THROUGH THE UN -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Practically speaking, Ellefsen said that the P5+1 group could function to move the UNSC to action, but China was still the big question mark (and he obliquely referenced recently strained relations between China and the U.S.). Norway favors a united P5+1 in the Security Council, and believes this would send Iran the strongest possible political signal. Ellefsen said that Russia "looks like it's coming down the right path" on the Iran issue. NO EASY ANSWERS -------------- ¶4. (C) When asked about internal GON ideas on Iran, Ellefsen said that, although the issue has been discussed at high levels, "we don't have a formula to suggest." He said the situation in Iran is very complicated, with many in the opposition supporting the nuclear program, and the probable effect of sanctions not entirely clear-the Norwegian embassy in Tehran warns of possible backlash against sanctions that might actually strengthen the regime. According to Ellefsen, however, the Norwegian government would "listen carefully" to us on any suggestion of how to increase pressure. If stronger measures are developed by the UNSC, adoption by the GON will be easy; if they are developed by the EU, adoption OSLO 00000061 002 OF 002 by the GON will be "relatively" easy; if there ends up being a "coalition of the willing," there will be some "internal legal work" that must be accomplished before Norway could join. NORWAY COULD HELP MOBILIZE A COALITION -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Regarding how Norway could potentially help, Ellefsen said that Foreign Minister Stoere was, in many diplomatic arenas, interested in mobilizing coalitions of countries, and might be able to help build support for eventual UNSC or other action. Ellefsen mentioned as an example the informal "Group of Seven" on disarmament, which includes countries as varied as Norway, Indonesia, and South Africa. Ellefsen offered that perhaps Norway could use its contacts behind the scenes to help reach a meaningful agreement. WHITE