LOW INDIAN EXPECTATIONS FOR FEBRUARY 25 TALKS WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000328 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2020 TAGS: PREL PTER IN PK SUBJECT: LOW INDIAN EXPECTATIONS FOR FEBRUARY 25 TALKS WITH PAKISTAN Classified By: Political Counselor Uzra Zeya for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d ). ¶1. (C) Summary: According to Yashwant Sinha, the Indian MEA point person on Pakistan policy, there is no set agenda for February 25 Foreign Secretary-level talks with Pakistan in New Delhi and resumption of the Composite Dialogue after the talks is unlikely. Sinha confided that he is "not sanguine" that the talks will be productive, adding that a "minimum outcome of agreeing to talk again" might be a realistic result. While India will focus on what Sinha characterized as Pakistan's "dismal record" on Mumbai-related prosecutions and Islamabad's apparent tolerance of rabble-rousing rhetoric from jihadi groups, Sinha predicted the Pakistani side would raise Kashmir, water, and alleged Indian "interference" in Baluchistan. He dismissed Islamabad's claim of Indian misuse of Pakistani water as a canard, noting that the Indian Indus Waters Commissioner was in Pakistan last week to discuss Indus Waters Treaty technical issues with his Pakistani counterpart. Crediting Prime Minister Singh as the driving force behind the resumed talks, Sinha said the PM's primary motivation is to address the "distraction" posed by Pakistan so India can get on with an ambitious target of 8-10 percent annual economic growth in coming years. End Summary. Agenda Open, But No Composite Dialogue -------------- ¶2. (C) In a wide-ranging February 22 meeting with PolCouns, MEA Joint Secretary Sinha -- India's A/S equivalent for Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran (discussions on the latter two countries reported septel) -- said India and Pakistan have no formal agenda for their February 25 Foreign Secretary-level talks in New Delhi. He stated, however, that India insisted and Pakistan reluctantly accepted that the talks will not entail resumed Composite Dialogue discussions. India will focus on what Sinha characterized as Pakistan's "dismal record" on Mumbai-related prosecutions and cross-border infiltrations, and will also demand a "crackdown" on rabble-rousing rhetoric from groups like Jamaat ul-Dawa and the United Jihadi Council (Sinha provided a paper containing demagogic vitriol reportedly uttered by JuD leader Abdur Rehman Makki and others). He predicted the Pakistani side would raise Kashmir, water, and alleged Indian "interference" in Baluchistan. Sinha reaffirmed readiness to discuss all issues raised by Pakistan, despite the singular GOI focus on terrorism. ¶3. (C) When asked about Indian expectations, Sinha confided that he is "not sanguine" that the talks will be productive, "especially after reading the Pakistani press." He stated that he saw some likelihood that the meeting would be a "one-off" event, particularly if the GOI's ongoing investigation into the February 13 Pune bombing reveals Pakistani involvement. Sinha said no evidence of such involvement has surfaced "as of yet," but commented that three of the Indian Mujahideen's top leaders implicated by the Indian media for involvement in the Pune bombing are in Karachi. Sinha expressed dismay that the Pakistani delegation will meet the Kashmir separatist All Party Hurriyat Conference (APHC) leadership in Delhi on February 24, characterizing it as an unwise move that will not engender positive Indian public opinion and could jeopardize GOI receptivity to future talks. ¶4. (C) Sinha cited the APHC meeting as a clear sign that the Pakistani military controls the civilian government: "when Foreign Secretary Bashir comes to India, he will be holding the military's brief and not that of the civilian government." He surmised that a "minimum outcome of agreeing to talk again" might be a realistic result of the talks, adding that the Indians are willing to go to Pakistan for future discussions. Recounting that the Pakistani side asked if the February 25 talks would lead to resumption of the Composite Dialogue, Sinha said that such an eventuality is highly unlikely absent Pakistani CT progress. ¶5. (C) Sinha downplayed Islamabad's claim of Indian misallocation of Pakistani water, asserting that Pakistan is NEW DELHI 00000328 002 OF 002 "taking technical issues and trying to turn them into political issues." As an example, he cited Pakistani press allegations that Indian diversion of Ravi River water is "making Lahore run dry." In fact, Sinha claimed, India paid Pakistan 60 million British Pounds in compensation for exclusive use of Ravi waters when the Indus Waters Treaty was concluded in 1960. Sinha noted that the Indian Indus Waters Commissioner was in Pakistan last week to discuss Indus Waters Treaty technical issues with his Pakistani counterpart and reported that the Pakistani side did not claim any technical violations by India of the Indus Waters Treaty but asked for technical data on India's future water projects. ¶6. (C) Dismissing as "nonsense" Indian media analysis that ascribes the GOI's offer of resumed talks with Pakistan to USG pressure or "Indian policy failure in Afghanistan," Sinha credited PM Singh as the driving force behind the Indian initiative. Sinha said the PM's primary motivation is to address the "distraction" posed by Pakistan so India can get on with an ambitious target of 8-10 percent annual economic growth in coming years. Believing that the domestic political climate was now right, Singh authorized MEA to initiate resumed talks. Sinha stressed that the PM had been planning for some time for the right moment to re-engage with Pakistan and was determined not to let the Pune bombing halt the talks. That said, Sinha asserted that another terrorist incident would likely force the GOI to cancel re-engagement in the face of overwhelmingly negative public opinion. ROEMER