Validation Study: Bahamian with waivers follow the rules

UNCLAS NASSAU 000036 SIPDIS STATE FOR CA/FPP E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: CVIS KFRD BF SUBJECT: Validation Study: Bahamian with waivers follow the rules ¶1. SUMMARY: Post conducted a validation study of 407 Bahamians traveling with visas with waivers that were issued between April 1, 2007 and June 18, 2008. The confirmed return rate was over 92% with the remainder being inclusive, having never traveled on their visa, or currently in the U.S. in valid status. Many of the applicants traveling on visas with waivers have received them in the past as well and appear extra cautious to stay within the law and avoid future difficulties. Despite their brush with the law in the past, it appears that holders of visas with waivers are some of our most dependable issuants now. ¶2. METHODOLOGY: Post conducted a study of 407 Bahamians traveling with waivers. The primary method of data collection was phone calls with confirmation provided by ADIS checks. The validation study covered a 445 day period from April 1, 2007 until June 18, 2008. This data set was chosen to allow more than a full year after date of issuance to allow for a higher rate of travel. Using CA/FPP guidelines, a random sample was used to select 407 waiver holders. ¶3. DATA COLLECTION: Post used a two-prong approach to collect data. First, Post attempted to contact every person by phone, when this was not possible ADIS was used. Post also used ADIS to verify the information we collected by making phone calls. ¶4. THE FOUR STATUS CATEGORIES: a. Confirmed Return: Of the 407 issuances, 377 are confirmed returns. b. Inconclusive/Possible Overstay: 13 visa waiver holders are considered inconclusive or possible overstays due to no phone contact and no apparent return in ADIS or no available ADIS information. c. Never Travel: 11 of the 407 waiver holders did not travel to the United States. d. In US on B1/B2: At the time of the study, 6 persons were in the United States on B1/B2 visas but had not yet the end of their authorized stay. ¶5. RESULTS: Post was unable to confirm any overstays of persons traveling with waivers. Due to inaccurate or unavailable phone numbers, not all issuants were contacted by phone. Although ADIS provided valuable information, it is not 100% accurate and Post was unable find or to confirm 13 issuants using ADIS. Category Total Number Percentage Confirmed Return 377 92.60% 
 Inconclusive/Possible overstay 13 3.20% Never Travel 11 2.70% In US on B1/B2, not an overstay 6 1.50% ¶6. Post further analyzed the results based on gender. The following tables show a break-down of each of the categories based on gender. It can be noted that there isn't a significant difference between men and women. The biggest noticeable difference is the "Never Travel" rate; women were more than twice as likely to not travel as men. Women Category Total Number Percentage Confirmed Return 72 91.10% Inconclusive/Possible overstay 2 2.50% Never Travel 4 5.10% In US on B1/B2, not an overstay 1 1.30% Men Category Total Number Percentage Confirmed Return 304 92.70% Inconclusive/Possible overstay 12 3.70% Never Travel 7 2.10% In US on B1/B2, not an overstay 5 1.50% ¶7. Post also analyzed the data based on age of applicant at time of issue. Age 24-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+ Confirmed Return 86.70% 92.00% 91.80% 95.90% 91.80% 87.50% Inconclusive/Possible overstay 13.30% 6.00% 3.60% 3.30% 1.20% 0% Never Travel 0% 2.00% 3.60% 0% 5.90% 4.20% Not overstays on B1/B2 0% 0% 0.90% 0.80% 1.20% 8.30% ¶8. COMMENT: Many of the people traveling with visa waivers are very frequent travelers and are accustomed to the secondary questioning and extra administrative time required for them to pass through immigration, although they see it as a hassle. Many commented that after more frequent travel, the processing time in immigration is decreased. As Post was unable to positively identify any overstays in this study, it appears that waiver holders seem to take extra care in ensuring they stay out of trouble and follow immigration law. AVANT