Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
10NASSAU36
2010-01-11 20:13:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Nassau
Cable title:
Validation Study: Bahamian with waivers follow the rules
how-toVZCZCXYZ0015 RR RUEHWEB DE RUEHBH #0036/01 0112014 ZNR UUUUU ZZH R 112013Z JAN 10 FM AMEMBASSY NASSAU TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0198 INFO RUEHBH/AMEMBASSY NASSAU
UNCLAS NASSAU 000036
SIPDIS
STATE FOR CA/FPP
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: CVIS KFRD BF
SUBJECT: Validation Study: Bahamian with waivers follow the rules
UNCLAS NASSAU 000036
SIPDIS
STATE FOR CA/FPP
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: CVIS KFRD BF
SUBJECT: Validation Study: Bahamian with waivers follow the rules
1. SUMMARY: Post conducted a validation study of 407
Bahamians traveling with visas with waivers that were issued
between April 1, 2007 and June 18, 2008. The confirmed return rate
was over 92% with the remainder being inclusive, having never
traveled on their visa, or currently in the U.S. in valid status.
Many of the applicants traveling on visas with waivers have
received them in the past as well and appear extra cautious to stay
within the law and avoid future difficulties. Despite their brush
with the law in the past, it appears that holders of visas with
waivers are some of our most dependable issuants now.
2. METHODOLOGY: Post conducted a study of 407 Bahamians
traveling with waivers. The primary method of data collection was
phone calls with confirmation provided by ADIS checks. The
validation study covered a 445 day period from April 1, 2007 until
June 18, 2008. This data set was chosen to allow more than a full
year after date of issuance to allow for a higher rate of travel.
Using CA/FPP guidelines, a random sample was used to select 407
waiver holders.
3. DATA COLLECTION: Post used a two-prong approach to collect
data. First, Post attempted to contact every person by phone, when
this was not possible ADIS was used. Post also used ADIS to verify
the information we collected by making phone calls.
4. THE FOUR STATUS CATEGORIES:
a. Confirmed Return: Of the 407 issuances, 377 are confirmed
returns.
b. Inconclusive/Possible Overstay: 13 visa waiver holders are
considered inconclusive or possible overstays due to no phone
contact and no apparent return in ADIS or no available ADIS
information.
c. Never Travel: 11 of the 407 waiver holders did not travel
to the United States.
d. In US on B1/B2: At the time of the study, 6 persons were in
the United States on B1/B2 visas but had not yet the end of their
authorized stay.
5. RESULTS: Post was unable to confirm any overstays of
persons traveling with waivers. Due to inaccurate or unavailable
phone numbers, not all issuants were contacted by phone. Although
ADIS provided valuable information, it is not 100% accurate and
Post was unable find or to confirm 13 issuants using ADIS.
Category
Total Number
Percentage
Confirmed Return
377
92.60%
Inconclusive/Possible overstay
13
3.20%
Never Travel
11
2.70%
In US on B1/B2, not an overstay
6
1.50%
6. Post further analyzed the results based on gender. The
following tables show a break-down of each of the categories based
on gender. It can be noted that there isn't a significant
difference between men and women. The biggest noticeable difference
is the "Never Travel" rate; women were more than twice as likely to
not travel as men.
Women
Category
Total Number
Percentage
Confirmed Return
72
91.10%
Inconclusive/Possible overstay
2
2.50%
Never Travel
4
5.10%
In US on B1/B2, not an overstay
1
1.30%
Men
Category
Total Number
Percentage
Confirmed Return
304
92.70%
Inconclusive/Possible overstay
12
3.70%
Never Travel
7
2.10%
In US on B1/B2, not an overstay
5
1.50%
7. Post also analyzed the data based on age of applicant at
time of issue.
Age
24-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70+
Confirmed Return
86.70%
92.00%
91.80%
95.90%
91.80%
87.50%
Inconclusive/Possible overstay
13.30%
6.00%
3.60%
3.30%
1.20%
0%
Never Travel
0%
2.00%
3.60%
0%
5.90%
4.20%
Not overstays on B1/B2
0%
0%
0.90%
0.80%
1.20%
8.30%
8. COMMENT: Many of the people traveling with visa waivers
are very frequent travelers and are accustomed to the secondary
questioning and extra administrative time required for them to pass
through immigration, although they see it as a hassle. Many
commented that after more frequent travel, the processing time in
immigration is decreased. As Post was unable to positively identify
any overstays in this study, it appears that waiver holders seem to
take extra care in ensuring they stay out of trouble and follow
immigration law.
AVANT
SIPDIS
STATE FOR CA/FPP
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: CVIS KFRD BF
SUBJECT: Validation Study: Bahamian with waivers follow the rules
1. SUMMARY: Post conducted a validation study of 407
Bahamians traveling with visas with waivers that were issued
between April 1, 2007 and June 18, 2008. The confirmed return rate
was over 92% with the remainder being inclusive, having never
traveled on their visa, or currently in the U.S. in valid status.
Many of the applicants traveling on visas with waivers have
received them in the past as well and appear extra cautious to stay
within the law and avoid future difficulties. Despite their brush
with the law in the past, it appears that holders of visas with
waivers are some of our most dependable issuants now.
2. METHODOLOGY: Post conducted a study of 407 Bahamians
traveling with waivers. The primary method of data collection was
phone calls with confirmation provided by ADIS checks. The
validation study covered a 445 day period from April 1, 2007 until
June 18, 2008. This data set was chosen to allow more than a full
year after date of issuance to allow for a higher rate of travel.
Using CA/FPP guidelines, a random sample was used to select 407
waiver holders.
3. DATA COLLECTION: Post used a two-prong approach to collect
data. First, Post attempted to contact every person by phone, when
this was not possible ADIS was used. Post also used ADIS to verify
the information we collected by making phone calls.
4. THE FOUR STATUS CATEGORIES:
a. Confirmed Return: Of the 407 issuances, 377 are confirmed
returns.
b. Inconclusive/Possible Overstay: 13 visa waiver holders are
considered inconclusive or possible overstays due to no phone
contact and no apparent return in ADIS or no available ADIS
information.
c. Never Travel: 11 of the 407 waiver holders did not travel
to the United States.
d. In US on B1/B2: At the time of the study, 6 persons were in
the United States on B1/B2 visas but had not yet the end of their
authorized stay.
5. RESULTS: Post was unable to confirm any overstays of
persons traveling with waivers. Due to inaccurate or unavailable
phone numbers, not all issuants were contacted by phone. Although
ADIS provided valuable information, it is not 100% accurate and
Post was unable find or to confirm 13 issuants using ADIS.
Category
Total Number
Percentage
Confirmed Return
377
92.60%
Inconclusive/Possible overstay
13
3.20%
Never Travel
11
2.70%
In US on B1/B2, not an overstay
6
1.50%
6. Post further analyzed the results based on gender. The
following tables show a break-down of each of the categories based
on gender. It can be noted that there isn't a significant
difference between men and women. The biggest noticeable difference
is the "Never Travel" rate; women were more than twice as likely to
not travel as men.
Women
Category
Total Number
Percentage
Confirmed Return
72
91.10%
Inconclusive/Possible overstay
2
2.50%
Never Travel
4
5.10%
In US on B1/B2, not an overstay
1
1.30%
Men
Category
Total Number
Percentage
Confirmed Return
304
92.70%
Inconclusive/Possible overstay
12
3.70%
Never Travel
7
2.10%
In US on B1/B2, not an overstay
5
1.50%
7. Post also analyzed the data based on age of applicant at
time of issue.
Age
24-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70+
Confirmed Return
86.70%
92.00%
91.80%
95.90%
91.80%
87.50%
Inconclusive/Possible overstay
13.30%
6.00%
3.60%
3.30%
1.20%
0%
Never Travel
0%
2.00%
3.60%
0%
5.90%
4.20%
Not overstays on B1/B2
0%
0%
0.90%
0.80%
1.20%
8.30%
8. COMMENT: Many of the people traveling with visa waivers
are very frequent travelers and are accustomed to the secondary
questioning and extra administrative time required for them to pass
through immigration, although they see it as a hassle. Many
commented that after more frequent travel, the processing time in
immigration is decreased. As Post was unable to positively identify
any overstays in this study, it appears that waiver holders seem to
take extra care in ensuring they stay out of trouble and follow
immigration law.
AVANT