Somalia - Sharif Hassan Behind Ill-Fated Attempt To Remove

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 000033 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/E, AF/RSA AND A/S CARSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/08 TAGS: PGOV SO SOCI PINR KDEM SUBJECT: Somalia - Sharif Hassan Behind Ill-Fated Attempt To Remove Speaker CLASSIFIED BY: Robert Patterson, Counselor for Somalia Affairs, State Department, Somalia Unit; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Recent ill-fated efforts, reportedly orchestrated by Deputy Prime Minister Sharif Hassan, to sack the TFG Speaker were most likely intended to distract the Parliament from conducting oversight into Hassan's performance. (Note: President Sharif and Prime Minister Sharmarke have been under increasing pressure from inside and outside the TFG to curb Hassan's influence and reform the cabinet. End note.) Approximately forty Mogadishu-based MPs on January 6 called for the removal of TFG Speaker Aden Madobe. The chairmen of the 27 parliamentary standing committees, however, on January 7 rejected the MPs' call. Multiple contacts tell us that President Sharif will not support Hassan's efforts to remove Madobe. Efforts, however, reportedly continue behind the scenes to remove the Speaker and/or delay the proceedings of the Parliament. ¶2. (C) Summary and Comment continued:. We think that Madobe's removal is highly unlikely due to quorum and two-thirds majority challenges. We are, however, concerned about the distraction the situation creates and the risk that destructive figures will exacerbate tensions inside the TFG in an effort to prevent President Sharif from moving forward with cabinet reform. The EU on January 7 told us that it is willing to help pay MP salaries, a contingency that would complicate Hassan's efforts to buy off MPs. We have been in touch with numerous MPs in an effort to discourage further discord and have told the TFG, in the strongest terms, we do not/not support the removal of Madobe. End summary. ¶3. (C) Approximately 40 Mogadishu-based MPs on January 6 called for the removal of TFG Speaker Madobe. They alleged that he should leave because his term was set to expire. (Note: The former TFG's five-year mandate was due to expire in August. The TFG's mandate, however, was extended by two years during the January 2009 negotiations that led to the election of Sheikh Sharif. During the accompanying negotiations between the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) and the then-TFG, it was agreed that the Speaker would retain his position with a term equal to that of the then-extended TFG's. End note.) �0A; ¶4. (C) Our contacts tell us that the chairmen of the 27 parliamentary standing committees on January 7 dismissed the MPs' call. Many additional MPs reportedly criticized the call to remove the Speaker, saying that it could escalate TFG infighting during a time when the government needed to be united. ¶5. (C) Multiple contacts tell us that the attempted removal of the Speaker was orchestrated by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Sharif Hassan in an effort to distract the Parliament from conducting oversight into the performance of Hassan and a few other Ministers widely perceived to be corrupt and/or ineffective. (Note: President Sharif and Prime Minister Sharmarke have been under increasing pressure from inside and outside the TFG to curb Hassan's influence and reform the cabinet. End note.) In addition, Hassan, who was Speaker during Abdullahi Yusuf's TFG Presidency, has reportedly long wanted to be Speaker again. Contacts report that Hassan is beginning to feel vulnerable in his position as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance and knows that he would be able to ensure continued leverage over the President as Speaker via the threat of impeachment. (Note: In addition, the TFG Charter stipulates that the Speaker is next-in-line in the event that the President is absent, incapacitated, or killed. End note.) ¶6. (C) Despite the apparent failure of the January 6 attempt, efforts to remove Madobe continue behind the scenes. MP Qanyare on January 7 attempted to convince a gathering of MPs in Nairobi that Madobe should be replaced with Hassan. (Note: Qanyare , an unpopular warlord turned MP, can be counted on to obstruct forward movement on governance because he benefits from the current war economy. End note.) NAIROBI 00000033 002 OF 002 ¶7. (C) Multiple contacts tell us that President Sharif will not support Hassan's efforts to remove the Speaker, in part because Sharif fears that the false timeline used to call into question the length of the Speaker's term might in turn draw attention to the question of the timeline of his Presidency. More significantly, contacts tell us that Sharif is torn between loyalty to Hassan and his own increasing efforts to exert independent leadership. Some observers contend that the President hopes to use Parliamentary inquiries into Hassan's performance and the work of others as political cover in order to make difficult cabinet changes in the coming months. (Note: If this is true, it signals an increasingly confident and politically savvy Sheikh Sharif. End note.) ¶8. (C) Comment: We think that Madobe's ultimate removal is highly unlikely due to quorum and two-thirds majority challenges. We are concerned, however, that destructive figures will exacerbate tensions in the TFG to prevent President Sharif from moving forward with needed cabinet reform. The EU on January 7 told us that it would help pay MP salaries. Timely payments could complicate Hassan's efforts to buy off MPs. We have been in touch with numerous MPs in order to discourage further discord and have told the TFG, in the strongest terms, that we do not/not support the removal of Madobe. RANNEBERGER