SOMALIA DEYR ASSESSMENT RESULTS INDICATE SUSTAINED

UNCLAS NAIROBI 000224 AIDAC USAID/DCHA FOR SRIECHLE JBRAUSE DCHA/OFDA FOR ACONVERY KCHANNELL APIYAKA DCHA/FFP FOR BISHAM JDWORKEN SANTHONY CMUTAMBA PMOHAN DNELSON AFR/EA STATE FOR AF/E AF/F AND PRM USUN FOR DMERCADO BRUSSELS FOR PBROWN GENEVA FOR NKYLOH ROME FOR HSPANOS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID PHUM PREL PREF SO SUBJECT: SOMALIA DEYR ASSESSMENT RESULTS INDICATE SUSTAINED HUMANITARIAN CRISIS -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. On January 29, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) presented findings from the 2009/2010 post-October to December short rains seasonal assessment. According to FSNAU, an estimated 3.2 million people will require humanitarian assistance in Somalia between January and June 2010, representing approximately 42 percent of the estimated total population and a nine percent decrease since July 2009. While an above-normal harvest has improved food security in southern agricultural areas of Somalia, conflict and increased attacks targeting aid agencies have led to temporary suspensions in activities and diminishing access, hindering the delivery of humanitarian assistance to populations in need. In addition, below-normal rainfall in northern regions has resulted in significant water and pasture shortages. Humanitarian partners also continue to report high levels of malnutrition, particularly in south Somalia. ¶2. The U.S. represents the single largest donor of humanitarian assistance to Somalia, providing more than USD 153 million in Fiscal Year (FY) 2009 and to date in FY 2010, including nearly USD 14.5 million from the USAID Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA) and nearly USD 139 million in USAID Office of Food for Peace (USAID/FFP) funding. USAID/OFDA and USAID/FFP staff are closely monitoring humanitarian conditions in Somalia. End Summary. -------------- CURRENT SITUATION -------------- ¶3. On January 29, FSNAU presented findings from the 2009/2010 post-deyr seasonal assessment conducted by FSNAU, the USAID-funded Famine and Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET),and 88 partners, including regional authorities, UN agencies, and local and international non- governmental organizations (NGOs). According to the results, an estimated 3.2 million people will require humanitarian assistance in Somalia between January and June 2010, representing between 32 and 42 percent of the total estimated population of between 7.5 and 9.8 million people and a nine percent decrease since July 2009. The total includes 555,000 urban poor; 1.25 million rural, drought- affected individuals; and approximately 1.39 million internally displaced persons (IDPs). ¶4. Assessment findings indicate a 15 percent decline in the number of urban and rural individuals requiring assistance since July 2009. The decline in rural populations requiring humanitarian assistance is associated with food security improvements in southern agricultural areas resulting from an above-normal deyr harvest and improved water and pasture availability. However, FSNAU reported an increase in the number of rural individuals in northern Somalia requiring assistance, noting that drought conditions have left 290,000 pastoralists and agro- pastoralists in crisis. Decreasing needs in urban areas, particularly in northern Somalia, reflect price and currency stabilization partially resulting from decreasing import commodity prices. In central regions, FSNAU reports that 70 percent of the population requires humanitarian assistance due to ongoing drought conditions, as well as escalating conflict and resulting population displacements. ¶5. IDPs remain the largest single population group in crisis, representing 44 percent of the 3.2 million people in need of humanitarian assistance in Somalia, with insecurity continuing to be the primary cause for displacement. FSNAU notes that the number of IDPs is likely to increase due to ongoing and escalated conflict. On January 19, the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) revised downward the estimated number of IDPs in Somalia from 1.5 million individuals, to approximately 1.39 million individuals, including 275,000 long-term IDPs. The new IDP estimate reflects a downward revision of the number of IDPs residing in Afgoye corridor from 540,000 to 380,000 following a UNHCR-conducted verification exercise. -------------- AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY -------------- ¶6. Results from the deyr assessment indicate an above- normal harvest production in Somalia, contributing 46 percent of the total annual crop production in Somalia. The October to December deyr harvest typically contributes 30 to 35 percent of the total annual crop production. FSNAU estimates a total 2009/2010 deyr cereal production in south Somalia of 124,700 metric tons (MT),representing the largest deyr cereal production in south Somalia since 2001/2002. This is a 246 percent increase from the 2008 deyr cereal harvest in south Somalia and a 150 percent increase compared to the 2004-2008 average. Including deyr and off-season production, FSNAU estimates a total seasonal cereal production in south Somalia of 126,400 MT, also representing a significant increase compared to 2008 annual cereal production levels in south Somalia and the 2004-2008 average. ¶7. In northern and central pastoral areas, humanitarian agencies have expressed concern regarding deteriorating livestock conditions and milk production due to significant water and pasture shortages. On December 17, FSNAU reported that food security in Hiran and Galgadud regions is likely to deteriorate due to below-normal rains and limited recovery from consecutive seasons of drought. ¶8. According to FSNAU, 2009 commercial cereal imports were above-normal, with nearly 700,000 MT imported during the year, representing a 190 percent increase compared to 2008 commercial cereal imports and 156 percent increase compared to the 2005-2007 average. According to FSNAU, total annual crop production typically meets approximately 40 percent of food needs in Somalia per year, while the imports meet the remaining 60 percent of the needs. -------------- HEALTH AND NUTRITION -------------- ¶9. Findings from 38 nutritional surveys, 27 urban site assessments, information from 100 health centers, and partner reports from selective feeding centers confirm critical nutrition conditions in Somalia, with some of the highest acute malnutrition rates in the world. According to the results, one in six children in Somalia is acutely malnourished and one in 22 is severely malnourished, with a national median global acute malnutrition (GAM) rate of 16 percent and a severe acute malnutrition (SAM) rate of 4.2 percent, a slight decrease compared to GAM and SAM rates of 19 and 4.5 percent, respectively, reported by FSNAU in the post-April to June seasonal assessment results released in September 2009. FSNAU noted that successful humanitarian interventions in areas designated as critical in the post- gu assessment have prevented a further decline in overall malnutrition rates, particularly in parts of central and northern Somalia. ¶10. In south and central Somalia, FSNAU reports that one in five children is acutely malnourished and one in 20 is severely malnourished, with GAM rates of 19 percent and SAM rates of 4.5 percent, significantly above the UN World Health Organization GAM and SAM emergency thresholds of 15 percent and 2 percent, respectively. Countrywide, approximately 240,000 children under five years of age are acutely malnourished, of which 63,000 are severely malnourished and require immediate life-saving interventions. ¶11. FSNAU reported particular concern regarding nutrition conditions among IDP populations, as results indicate that one in four children is acutely malnourished. FSNAU also reports elevated mortality rates among pastoral populations in Juba Region and central regions, as well as among IDP populations in the Afgoye corridor. (Note: Nutrition specific cable from USAID/OFDA forthcoming) -------------- INSECURITY AND POPULATION DISPLACEMENT -------------- ¶12. On January 30, UNHCR estimated that insecurity, inter- clan fighting, and livelihood deterioration had displaced approximately 82,000 individuals within Somalia since January 1, with insecurity accounting for 98 percent of total displacement. Of the total, internal displacement between January 1 and 22 includes approximately 18,000 individuals displaced from and within Mogadishu, of which 13,900 people fled the city and 4,400 others fled to safer areas within Mogadishu. In total, UNHCR estimates that 1.4 million IDPs reside in Somalia, including 1.11 million individuals displaced since increased fighting in February 2007 and 275,000 long-term IDPs. However, insecurity and fluid population movements, including secondary displacement and limited returns, continue to undermine efforts to accurately track IDP figures. ¶13. FSNAU reported that between July and December 2009, insecurity remained high throughout Mogadishu, Middle and Lower Juba, Bakool, Hiran, Galgadud, and Mudug regions. In addition, security incidents have increasingly occurred in the northern Somalia. Between January and June 2010, FSNAU reports that insecurity is likely to produce continued and renewed conflict; population displacement; destruction of property; an increased number of checkpoints; disruption of trade activities within Somalia; and closure of the Kenyan border. FSNAU also noted the possibility of escalated insecurity in rural areas. -------------- USG Humanitarian Assistance in Somalia -------------- ¶14. On December 3, the UN launched the 2010 Consolidated Appeals Process (CAP) for Somalia to help respond to the ongoing humanitarian crisis. The appeal requests more than USD 689 million, representing an estimated 19 percent decrease from the revised requirements under the 2009 mid- year review (Note: During the mid-year review, the UN revised the original 2009 appeal requirement downwards from USD 919 million to USD 849 million). UN staff reported that the decrease reflects reassessments of food aid requirements and improved coordination structures. As of February 3, the UN reported that the 2010 CAP has received nearly USD 34 million. ¶15. To date in FY 2010, the USG has provided more than USD 20 million in humanitarian assistance in Somalia, including nearly USD 5.5 million from USAID/OFDA to support agriculture and food security; water, sanitation, and hygiene; economic recovery and market systems; protection; and nutrition programs, as well as humanitarian coordination and information management and the provision of emergency relief supplies. In FY 2009, USAID/OFDA provided more than USD 9 million in humanitarian assistance to Somalia. To date in FY 2010, USAID/FFP has provided more than 18,650 MT of P.L. 480 Title II emergency food assistance, valued at approximately USD 14.7 million. In FY 2009, USAID/FFP provided an estimated 160,000 MT of P.L. 480 Title II emergency food assistance, valued at more than USD 124 million, to the U.N. World Food Program for distribution to vulnerable populations in Somalia. RANNEBERGER