Somalia -Galmuduug Presidential Crisis Resolved, Signaling

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 000001 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/E, AF/RSA AND A/S CARSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/04 TAGS: PGOV SO SOCI PINR KDEM SUBJECT: Somalia -Galmuduug Presidential Crisis Resolved, Signaling Positive Regional and TFG Leadership REF: NAIROBI 2214 CLASSIFIED BY: Robert Patterson, Counselor for Somalia Affairs, State Department, Somalia Unit; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Transitional Federal Government (TFG) on December 28 endorsed Mohamed Ahmed Alin as President of Galmuduug region during an official ceremony in Mogadishu. Alin's selection, following a protracted stand-off with another contender for the position, was the result of TFG President Sharif's decision to accept the recommendation of Galmuduug elders and religious leaders, and to abandon his own efforts to see Alin's rival for the office, Ahmed Sharif, installed as Galmuduug President instead. (Note: In the run-up to his selection, Alin had been instrumental in local efforts to resolve recent fighting between the Puntland and south-central halves of Galcaio. The town of Galcaio straddles the border between the two regions. End note.) The peaceful end to the conflict in Galmuduug is a feather in the cap of the Galmuduug community, which resisted the temptation to resort to armed conflict to resolve the crisis. It demonstrated strong leadership by President Sharif, as well. Alin's selection should encourage UNDP, other international community representatives, and Somali NGOs continue exploration of development options in the relatively stable region (reftel). End summary. ¶2. (C) Somalia Unit contacts report that the conflict over the Galmuduug presidency was triggered when former TFG Interior Minister Omar in July traveled to the region and orchestrated snap elections that brought Ahmed Sharif to power while the then Galmuduug President was out of town. (Note: Ahmed Sharif was a Council of Islamic Courts (CIC) colleague of Omar's and from the Sa'ad clan. Contacts report that Sharif had spent much time outside of Galmuduug and had little popular support in the region at the time that Omar engineered his snap election. The Sa'ad clan-dominated "Galmuduug State" was the result of a two-year, self-initiated and funded reconciliation process that culminated in the 2006 creation of a Galmuduug administration. The Administration remained resilient despite interruption by the Council of Islamic Courts' (CIC) 2006 rise to power. The Administration consists of a 27-member Traditional Leadership Council, a 26 member Assembly of Representatives, a President, a Vice-President, and a Council of Ministers. End note.) ¶3. (C) Local unhappiness with Omar's interference caused Galmuduug elders to dissolve the Assembly of Representatives, which had been pressured by Omar to elect Ahmed Sharif. A newly-constituted Assembly, supported by clan militias and the Galmuduug Haul Sunni Wall Jamaal (ASWJ),in August elected Mohamed Alin as the new Galmuduug President. Alin, who is also from the Sa'ad clan, reportedly enjoyed popular support in the region and the support of the Galmuduug President whom Ahmed Sharif had displaced. Alin's August election reportedly sparked disagreement within the TFG. The Prime Minister, former police commissioner Qeybdiid, and others supported Alin while TFG President Sharif and Minister Omar supported Ahmed Sharif. (Note: Qeybdiid is also from the Hawiye/Habr Gedir/Sa'ad subclan. End note.) ¶4. (C) In the end, TFG President Sharif accepted the verdict of Galmuduug elders, relevant diaspora members, and religious leaders and asked Ahmed Sharif to step down. In advance of his decision clan elders, encouraged by the TFG Prime Minister's mediation efforts, had twice asked Ahmed Sharif to step down, but Sharif had refused. Alin told us that the reconciliation committee, with growing support from the Sa'ad diaspora, in mid-December decided to take the issue to President Sharif. Several TFG officials attended the December 28 ceremony including the State Minister for Defense, the Minister of Mineral Resources and Water, the Minister of Trade, and the Minister of Diaspora Affairs. TFG President Sharif on December 28 received Alin at Villa Somalia and publicly congratulated Ahmed Sharif for stepping down. ¶5. (C) Comment: The peaceful resolution of this conflict signaled the strength of the Galmuduug community, which resisted NAIROBI 00000001 002 OF 002 the temptation to resort to armed conflict to resolve the crisis. It is also a testament to President Sharif's leadership. Alin's uncontested leadership should encourage UNDP, other international community representatives, and Somali NGOs in their recent efforts to explore development options in the relatively stable Galmuduug region. RANNEBERGER