OMAN - GOVERNMENT'S NUMBER TWO GIVES HIS VIEWS OF THE REGION

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 MUSCAT 000099

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/22
TAGS: PREL IZ IR IN PK AF YM IS KPAL MU
SUBJECT: OMAN - GOVERNMENT'S NUMBER TWO GIVES HIS VIEWS OF THE REGION

CLASSIFIED BY: Richard J Schmierer, Ambassador, State, Exec; REASON:
1.4(B),(D)


1. (S) Summary: In the Ambassador's introductory courtesy call,
Oman's number two in government, Sayyid Fahd, gave a frank view of
regional issues, interspaced with praise for the United States'
efforts. He opined that Iraq will eventually settle down and that
the United States had done a great service by removing a bad
system, not just a bad ruler. Oman hopes for positive steps from
Iran but has increasing concerns over its nuclear program. Oman is
looking to India to provide regional political counterbalance to
Iran. Pakistan and Afghanistan are two intractable problems that
concern Oman, but the country's biggest worry now is Yemen. Oman
tries to give good advice to both Israel and the Palestinians but
notes that Egypt is the country that can talk to all sides. Sayyid
Fahd hopes the UAE and Saudi Arabia can settle their border
demarcation issues in the similar, positive fashion as Oman settled
its own borders with both countries. End Summary.




2. (S) The Ambassador paid a February 6 introductory call on Oman's
number two person in the government, H.H. Sayyid Fahd bin Mahmud Al
Sa'id, who provided a tour of the Omani horizon. [Note: Sultan
Qaboos formally holds the positions of Prime Minister, Foreign
Minister, Defense Minister and Finance Minister. Sayyid Fahd is
the number two person in the government, holding the title of
Deputy Prime Minister for the Council of Ministers, i.e., the
cabinet. In formal photographs, he is seen sitting to the right of
the Sultan, and he fills in for the Sultan in receiving high-level
visitors when the Sultan is unavailable. End Note.] The meeting
was scheduled to last an hour but ran close to two.



IRAQ




3. (S) Sayyid Fahd ventured that Iraq and its unrest will settle
down with time. He said that a fundamental problem is the reality
that the Iraqi people have long been deprived of their freedom but
now have complete freedom of speech and that they are unaccustomed
to this. He noted that today there is neither political
imprisonment nor torture. He said the Omani Government knows that
the U.S. task is not easy; that it was not just the issue of the
removal of Saddam Hussein, but more basically the removal of a bad
system, and this is very much a massive undertaking. He noted the
complicating factor of the Sunni/Shiite split, but that this
development was not unexpected. The Iraqis must settle the issue
themselves.




4. (S) Sayyid Fahd noted that the former situation of Saddam's rule
had to change and the fact that this very situation has changed is
a positive example that could influence more countries to emulate
in their own internal efforts in a path towards change. He
continued that all people should appreciate the American action.
"If there is any degree of doubt, I ask who was prepared to send
their children to fight for the rights of others?" He concluded
this point by saying that your friends are those you can turn to at
any time, good or bad.



IRAN




5. (S) Sayyid Fahd confirmed that Oman does remind Iran that there
is no threat of an imminent U.S. invasion. That said, he repeated
the familiar Omani point that the U.S. must do more to understand
Iran. He said that the U.S. needs an interlocutor through which to
contact Iran. Oman hopes that there will be no war in the region,
but has concerns over Iran's nuclear program. The Government of
Oman believes that there could be some positive steps from Tehran
on the nuclear issue, but every time there could be progress
"someone always holds back." Sayyid Fahd noted that even the
conservatives are not unified. He concluded that the Iranians will
find it difficult to bring things back to normal.

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IRAN AND INDIA




6. (S) Oman is encouraging India to engage in the region
diplomatically and politically. He said that as Iran wants to be
seen as a regional power, Oman wants a balance of power and sees
India possibly as that balance. India does not need to present a
military presence, according to Sayyid Fahd, a political presence
will do. He termed India as a reliable country and a reliable
partner, and that India would contribute to regional stability and
security.



PAKISTAN




7. (S) Sayyid Fahd said that Pakistan is quite a different issue.
It is a large country "with so many fanatics." The social fabric
and the cultural fabric are under real threat and Pakistan needs
help, both material and psychological support from its friends. He
continued, noting that the situation spreads beyond Pakistan's
borders, citing the problem in Great Britain, with its substantial
Pakistani population. Sorting out who is a fanatic, and who is
not, "is a big problem." It doesn't stop there, he noted, it
spreads throughout Europe, as these Pakistanis are British, with
freedom of travel.



AFGHANISTAN




8. (S) Sayyid Fahd termed the problems in Afghanistan as "huge."
The country has no resources and has an "open door" to Pakistan.
He noted that tribal power is the predominant power in the country,
and added that the tribal leaders not only have no fear of the
central government, but no fear of the outside world.



YEMEN




9. (S) According to Sayyid Fahd, Yemen is the pressing problem of
the moment. It poses a real risk to Oman and the region - the
country is not the risk, but individuals are. He said that for
Oman, the border is very important, as the Yemeni people have no
way out. Were Oman to face a refugee influx, the dilemma would be
to determine "who is good and who is not," and "the Saudis have
learned [this] the hard way."




10. (S) He said that Oman's assistance to Yemen has the sole
purpose of doing good for that country. Oman does not want to
intervene, just to help. He noted that even in the 1994 war Oman
did not intervene in Yemen's affairs, and that the Government of
Yemen is still grateful for that. He repeated a familiar Omani
(and other) point that the Government of Yemen's real problem is in
not taking care of the South. He noted that there was a great
opportunity after the 1994 war that was squandered. He concluded
that Yemen could be a strong country if it were well cared for and
united. He concluded by saying that the problems are internal, and
that blaming Iran for them "is not right."



MIDDLE EAST PEACE




11. (S) Sayyid Fahd said that he hopes that the United States will
"do anything possible to resolve the Palestine/Israel problem." He
offered the practical words that it will all boil down to
compromise, and that nothing is easy. He said that Israel cannot
live forever with the tension it is under. Sayyid Fahd confirmed

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that Oman speaks to both the Israeli and Palestinian sides, and
tells both that they know each other better than any one in the
world know either of them, and that they will have to create the
stability needed for peace. He stressed that the overall problem
is clearly a territorial problem, not a religious one.




12. (S) He also said that Hamas is not so big a problem that it
cannot be dealt with. The Omanis' advice to Hamas has been that
the movement must focus on internal issues, and not on an
independent foreign policy. Sayyid Fahd concluded that Egypt is
the only country that can work with every party, and that all other
countries should encourage Egypt to continue in this role.



BORDERS IN THE GULF REGION




13. (S) Sayyid Fahd said that finalizing border issues should be a
priority. He said that the problems between Saudi Arabia and the
Emirates are something that Oman does not understand - and added
that the Emirati line is an embarrassment. He noted in comparison
that when Oman and Saudi Arabia demarcated their border, both
governments ordered that it be done amicably. King Fahd and Sultan
Qaboos each nominated one negotiator and directed them to put
historical issues aside and come up with a solution in which there
was no winner and no loser. The two monarchs cleared every issue,
according to Sayyid Fahd. [Note: In the mid 1950s, Saudi Arabia
pushed into Omani territory, helping ignite a rebellion that was
eventually put down with British assistance. This clearly is the
sort of history that both sides wanted to forget. End Note.]
Sayyid Fahd noted that the British had made "a mixed salad" of the
Omani-Emirati border, but in a similar spirit, the two sides
compromised to reach a final demarcation.
Schmierer