RUSSIA STEPS UP MIDDLE EAST ENGAGEMENT WITH ABBAS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 000270 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/05/2020 TAGS: PGOV PREL RS IS SUBJECT: RUSSIA STEPS UP MIDDLE EAST ENGAGEMENT WITH ABBAS VISIT AND MASHAAL AND NETANYAHU TO FOLLOW REF: 09 MOSCOW 980 Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Susan Elliott for reasons 1 .4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: As Moscow seeks to reassert itself in the Middle East Peace Process, the first of three regional leaders, Mahmoud Abbas, visited Russia. (Khaled Mashaal and PM Netanyahu will visit in the coming weeks.) Meeting with President Medvedev and FM Lavrov, Abbas urged Russia to pressure Israel to freeze all settlement activity. Abbas also strategized with Russian leaders about how to convince Hamas to sign the Palestinian reconciliation agreement. With these visitors, the GOR is relaying helpful messages to all parties and setting the stage for a Moscow Quartet Ministerial, possibly in March. End Summary. -------------- Meetings in Sochi, Moscow and Tatarstan -------------- ¶2. (C) While in Russia January 26-28, Abbas had meetings with government officials as well as religious leaders. Abbas met President Medvedev and FM Lavrov in Sochi. In Moscow he met with Mayor Yuriy Luzhkov, Yevgeny Primakov and Sergey Stepashin. Abbas also dined with Arab Ambassadors in Moscow, and traveled to Kazan to meet with the leadership of Tatarstan and Chairman of the Council of Muftis of Russia, Ravil Gainutdin. ¶3. (C) According to Alexander Rudakov of the MFA's Israel and Palestine Desk, Abbas wanted to visit Russia in December 2009 but his trip was postponed due to scheduling conflicts. Rudakov said Abbas and Medvedev discussed three primary topics: Middle East Peace, Inter-Palestinian issues and the Moscow Conference. -------------- Palestinians Want More Pressure on Israel -------------- ¶4. (C) Regarding the prospects for Middle East Peace, Rudakov said that Abbas and Medvedev discussed the Palestinians' view that only the U.S. can successfully exert influence over Israel to stop settlement activity, though Abbas was pessimistic about Special Envoy Mitchell's proposals and claimed they would not be enough to restart negotiations. Abbas said that he needed a complete freeze in settlement activity, even for a brief window, in order to return to the table. ¶5. (C) Counselor Zaul Awad of the Palestinian Embassy in Moscow provided a similar readout, indicating that Abbas had complained to the GOR that there was no pressure placed on Israel to follow the Roadmap. According to Awad, Abbas conveyed the message that a settlement freeze, even for a short time such as three or six months, would be enough to allow the Palestinians to return to negotiations. He urged Russia to pressure PM Netanyahu to take such action when he visits Moscow later this month. -------------- Palestinian Reconciliation -------------- ¶6. (C) On Palestinian reconciliation, the MFA,s Rudakov noted that, if Hamas signed the agreement brokered in Cairo, elections could take place June 28. Abbas remarked that Hamas judged signing the document could cost them the elections, even in Gaza. For this reason, it would be difficult to gain their signature. ¶7. (C) Awad said that Abbas was frustrated with the inability of Russian ambassadors in the Middle East to convince Hamas to sign the reconciliation document. Awad noted that, because of this failure, the Russians believed it was necessary for Mashaal to come to Moscow to receive the same message next week. He remarked that even if Mashaal favored the agreement, he would need to seek "permission" to sign from Iran and Syria before doing so. ¶8. (C) Awad also commented that, although Abbas has said he will not run in the next elections, most people around him are confident he will stand once an agreement is reached. He reinforced statements Abbas made to Medvedev indicating that Hamas was reluctant to sign the document because it would lead to a loss in the elections. -------------- Unity Plus Freeze Equals Moscow Conference MOSCOW 00000270 002 OF 003 -------------- ¶9. (C) Rudakov claimed that Abbas favored the Moscow Conference instead of a competing Paris conference. The Moscow Conference, Abbas claimed, had been agreed to by all parties, and, Russia, as a Quartet member, was well placed to host the event. Lavrov reiterated the GOR's commitment to host the Conference once the Israelis and Palestinians resume negotiations. -------------- Luzhkov Pinch-Hitting for Putin? -------------- ¶10. (C) The meeting with Moscow Mayor Luzhkov was a substitution, according to Rudakov, because PM Putin was not available. Rudakov indicated that the meeting lacked substance although potential projects in agriculture, irrigation and energy were discussed. ¶11. (C) Awad described the meeting differently, reporting that the meeting was very positive and would probably lead to expanded cooperation between Moscow and the Palestinians. For example, Awad noted that Russian ambulance maker Zil would likely donate some vehicles to the Palestinians. He also claimed there was discussion about potential desalination work by Russian companies as well as irrigation projects for agriculture. Awad said a team would likely come to Moscow soon for follow-up consultations. ¶12. (C) Most exciting to Awad seemed to be the increasing sports connections between the two. He reported that soccer team Dinamo Moscow had recently played a game against the Palestinian team. Dinamo had also promised to send two trainers to support the Palestinian players and offered a one-month team visit to Moscow. He expected that this cooperation would extend to other Russian clubs in the future. ¶13. (C) Vladimir Lebedev, Deputy Head, Department of External Economic and International Relations in the Moscow city government said that Abbas had requested the meeting with Luzhkov, and confirmed Luzhkov was not standing in for Putin. Lebedev recalled that the Moscow city government's relationship with the Palestinians dated back at least a decade, and several Palestinian delegations had visited Moscow in previous years. Luzhkov and Abbas became acquainted during Yasser Arafat's visit to Moscow about ten years ago, when Abbas was a member of the delegation. Lebedev also reported that the Moscow city government had been close to an agreement on and even participated in some tenders to develop both recreational facilities and a medical facility on the Dead Sea (Ref A). Ultimately, these plans did not transpire since the Moscow city government could not afford to make substantial down payments during the economic crisis. ¶14. (C) Luzhkov also mentioned general ideas for Russians to provide assistance to the Palestinians, such as medical, water treatment and desalination equipment, as well as financial assistance for their economy. According to Lebedev, Abbas agreed to think about resources the Palestinians needed and the two sides planned further discussions for a later date. Additionally, a Palestinian delegation, including technical experts and managerial staff, will return to Moscow at an undetermined date in the future. Luzhkov and Abbas agreed that after the Palestinians and Israelis reached a peace agreement, Moscow would renew discussions regarding development around the Dead Sea. -------------- Educational and Cultural Ties Increasing -------------- ¶15. (C) Lamenting that the armored personnel carriers Russia wanted to donate remained in Jordan, Awad detailed other bilateral social and cultural projects. Awad said that the GOR provided 150 scholarships annually for Palestinian students to study in Russia and would continue to do so. Currently, there are approximately 3,000 Palestinians studying at various Russian universities. He noted that Russia also planned to open a Russian school and cultural center in Bethlehem as well as a hotel for pilgrims visiting religious sites owned by the Russian Orthodox Church. ¶16. (C) With Stepashin, Abbas discussed land owned by the Russian Orthodox Church in the Palestinian territories. Abbas ended his trip to Russia by visiting Kazan where he met with the leadership of Tatarstan as well as Gainutdin. Rudakov said this stop was part of Abbas's effort to learn MOSCOW 00000270 003 OF 003 about various regions of Russia. Abbas has previously visited Chechnya and Dagestan. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶17. (C) As a member of the Quartet, Moscow is attempting to leverage its long-standing ties to the region by providing positive messages on Palestinian unity and Israeli settlements. Whether Moscow-Tehran tensions will embolden the GOR to be more forceful with Hamas or instead give Moscow less influence with them is unclear. Russia, however, will likely be content to be seen as an active member of the Quartet with these high-profile visits and a ministerial meeting in the near term. Actual progress on eitherQalestinian reconciliation or Israeli settlements would be a bonus for Moscow. Beyrle