BELARUS: MONTHLY MEMORIAL DEMONSTRATIONS ARE NOW PROCEEDING

UNCLAS MINSK 000024 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/UMB (ASHEMA) , DRL (DNADEL),AND EUR/ACE (KSALINGER) EMBASSY KYIV FOR USAID (JRIORDAN AND KMONAGHAN) E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM BO SUBJECT: BELARUS: MONTHLY MEMORIAL DEMONSTRATIONS ARE NOW PROCEEDING WITHOUT ARRESTS ¶1. Minsk authorities on January 16 continued a recent pattern of increased tolerance towards unsanctioned political demonstrations, allowing the monthly Solidarity demonstration to proceed with minimal interference on Minsk's October Square. The demonstration is held on the 16th of each month to call attention to a group of political opponents of President Lukashenka who disappeared more than 10 years ago. The demonstration has become a barometer of the GOB's tolerance toward unsanctioned political activity and an indicator of how political activism is viewed by the general public. ¶2. During the January 16 demonstration, about 40 demonstrators stood on the steps of a trade union culture palace on the edge of October Square, Minsk's main square, unfurling white-red-white and EU flags and chanting. Protestors were met by several dozen plainclothes police, who seized the outlawed white-red-white flags but allowed the demonstration to otherwise proceed. No demonstrators were arrested. The demonstration was unique for the audience it received. As many as 150 spectators, many who were skating on the square's open ice rink on a Saturday night, watched the half-hour demonstration on a cold, snowy Saturday evening. Public reaction was muted; while some spectators seemed interested in the message, many appeared more interested in seeing what was happening, including a group of teenagers who heckled the group several times. The same was true of a handful of small demonstrations allowed by the government last month on Human Rights day. ¶3. COMMENT: It appears that for now the GOB has made a conscientious decision to allow this limited form of expression, a marked change from earlier 2009 demonstrations that resulted in rough treatment and quick arrests. The public's reaction to the demonstration illustrates one of the larger problems for Belarus' opposition today: the public in Belarus views unsanctioned demonstration, if not also opposition to government in general, as more of a novel concept than a recognized act of political expression. It also highlights the divide between opposition activists, who hold frequent demonstrations attended by core followers, and the general public, who rarely attend demonstrations and who may not be aware of the issues being raised. Therein lies the dilemma for the GOB. In the short term, the GOB can play to the West by allowing opposition to gather its current limited numbers to protest in public and be relatively confident that the public reaction will be muted. However, in the long term, the GOB runs the risk that by allowing opposition activists to share unfiltered their message with the public that in time the message may resonate with them. End Comment SCANLAN