Mexico Economic Weekly - Jan 29, 2010

UNCLAS MEXICO 000308 SENSITIVE SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/EPSC STATE FOR EEB USDOC FOR 4320/ITA/MAC/WH/ONAFTA/GWORD TREASURY FOR IA ENERGY FOR WARD, LOCKWOOD AND DAVIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN ETRD ENRG ELTN EAIR PGOV SENV MX SUBJECT: Mexico Economic Weekly - Jan 29, 2010 ¶1. (U) The Mexico Economic Weekly supplements reporting from Mission Mexico Consulates and the Embassy Mexico Economic Section to provide a sense of ongoing trends. Please contact Adam Shub (shubam@state.gov) or Sigrid Emrich (emrichs@state.gov) for questions or comments about this report. ¶2. (U) Table of Contents: ECONOMY AND FINANCE: -------------- REMITTANCES TO MEXICO DOWN 15.7 PERCENT IN 2009 - Mexico City LOSS OF 50,000 JOBS IN NUEVO LEON PREDICTED FOR 2010- Monterrey WAGES FALL IN NUEVO LEON - Monterrey TRADE AND INVESTMENT: -------------- EXPERTS EXPECT CEMEX TO REPORT LOSSES - Monterrey MEXICANS DOWNLOAD 50% OF ILLEGAL MUSIC IN LATIN AMERICA - Mexico City MAQUILA ORGANIZATION NAMES BAJA CALIFORNIA THIRD MOST COMPETITIVE STATE IN MEXICO - Tijuana XIGNUX INVESTS US$23 MILLION IN PIIT - Monterrey TEXAS BORDER UNIVERSITY HOLDS BUSINESS FACILITATION SEMINAR IN JANUARY, ANOTHER TO BE HELD IN MARCH NEAR MATAMOROS - Matamoros NATIONAL COUNCIL OF THE MAQUILA INDUSTRY AND EXPORT MANUFACTURERS (CNIMME) SWEARS IN FIRST FEMALE PRESIDENT - Matamoros MATAMOROS EXPO 2010 TO BE HELD FEBRUARY 24-25 - Matamoros FONAES OFFERING FUNDS TO SMALL BUSINESSES - Monterrey TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE: -------------- MEXICO REJECTS OPEN SKIES - Mexico City RAILROAD COMPANIES INVEST US$895 MILLION IN INFRASTRUCTURE - Monterrey ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT: -------------- BP SOLAR REACHES AGREEMENT TO ASSEMBLE SOLAR PANEL IN CHIHUAHUA - Ciudad Juarez WATER SHORTAGE WOES IN HERMOSILLO - Hermosillo CONAGUA AND 80 COMPANIES INVEST IN SAVING WATER -Monterrey CANADIAN POTASH CORP ANALYZE ZACATECAS RESERVOIR - Monterrey -------------- ECONOMY AND FINANCE -------------- ¶3. (U) REMITTANCES TO MEXICO DOWN 15.7 PERCENT IN 2009: Remittances from Mexicans living overseas totalled 21.28 billion dollars last year, a 15.7% decline from the previous year, the Bank of Mexico (BOM) reported yesterday. These are the country's second-largest source of foreign exchange, after oil exports, and represent nearly 27% of income for rural - and 19% for urban - households. The recession in the U.S. has hit hard many Mexican migrants working in volatile sectors such as construction and manufacturing. Nonetheless, BOM Governor Agustin Carstens has stated that remittances increased 1.3% month-on-month in December, which may be an incipient sign of recovery. Remittances will recover further, particularly towards the end of this year, though volatility in sectors in which Mexicans are employed in the United States, combined with a tougher approach to illegal migration, mean this will be a slow and halting process. Lacklustre remittances will contribute to continuing sluggish domestic demand, which will act as a brake on Mexican economic recovery. (Mexico City) ¶4. (U) LOSS OF 50,000 JOBS IN NUEVO LEON PREDICTED FOR 2010: Coparmex, the Mexican Employers' Association, estimates that Nuevo Leon's private sector will lose 50,000 jobs in 2010 due to the lack of public security. On January 21, the president of Coparmex, Marcelo Canales Clariond, warned that unless measures are taken to decrease the incidence of crime, industry will refrain from investing in Nuevo Leon. (any sign of this happening yet? Have firms failed to invest strictly on security grounds?) (Monterrey) ¶5. (U) WAGES FALL IN NUEVO LEON: Total income for workers of all pay scales in Nuevo Leon fell 8.57 percent in real terms in 2009 as a result of fewer jobs and lower wages. Salaries for low-income workers increased 4.95 percent, while salaries for high-income workers dropped 17.75 percent. Sergio Tapia, a private-industry labor specialist noted that when companies restructure, higher paid workers are often terminated to reduce personnel expenses. (Monterrey) -------------- TRADE AND INVESTMENT -------------- ¶6. (U) EXPERTS EXPECT CEMEX TO REPORT LOSSES: During the fourth quarter of 2009, analysts predict Monterrey-based Cemex, the world's third largest cement maker, will report a loss of USD 519 million for the October-to-December 2009 period, only its second net loss in more than a decade. Analysts polled expect Cemex to show a 21 percent fall in its total sales and 34 percent slide in its earnings before interest, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA). Cemex is struggling with slumping cement sales in its key Mexican, U.S., and European markets as the global economic downturn has stemmed construction activity. Included in the fourth quarter 2009 figures will be a loss of USD 446 million resulting from the sale of Cemex's Australian assets for less than their book value. The loss is likely to be less than in the fourth quarter of 2008, when Cemex reported a USD 707 million loss, its first in at least a decade. (Monterrey) ¶7. (U) MEXICANS DOWNLOAD 50% OF ILLEGAL MUSIC IN LATIN AMERICA: IFPI reported that every year, Mexicans download approximately 4 billion illegal songs of the 7 billion songs downloaded illegally in Latin America. Mexico leads the list because of internet service providers' unwillingness to take responsibility for their clients' violations. The music and entertainment industry has been unable to convince the ISPs and the government to take similar measures to those implemented in Europe. In France, for example, internet services are suspended to clients that are found to have illegally downloaded music. The Communications and Transportation Secretariat has implemented a working group with the music industry and ISPs to address this problem, but has made little progress after more than a year. (Mexico City) ¶8. (U) MAQUILA ORGANIZATION NAMES BAJA CALIFORNIA THIRD MOST COMPETITIVE STATE IN MEXICO: Monica Gonzalez Garcia, president of the Consejo Nacional de la Industria Maquiladora de Exportacion, cited Baja Govenor Osuna Millan as a positive factor in maintaining the state's competitiveness in the eyes of foreign investors. In the state's largest city, Tijuana, the net balance of industrial space being used was negative in the last two quarters of 2008 and the first two quarters of 2009, but began a positive trend in the third quarter of last year. Post's business sector contacts indicate they believe foreign investment is on the increase so far in 2010. While Asian investment is taking a larger role, U.S. and Mexican investors still dominate. (Tijuana) ¶9. (U) XIGNUX INVESTS US$23 MILLION IN PIIT: On January 21, Xignux, a Monterrey-based industrial conglomerate, announced plans to invest USD 23 million in the next two years in the Technological Investigation and Innovation Park (PIIT) at Monterrey Tec. The conglomerate will open three development centers - one each for cables, transformers, and food. The centers will employ 180 people and construction should begin in late-February. (Monterrey) ¶10. (U) TEXAS BORDER UNIVERSITY HOLDS BUSINESS FACILITATION SEMINARS: The International Trade Center of the University of Texas at Brownsville and Texas Southmost College (UTB/TSC) held a business facilitation seminar: "How to do Business in the U.S. and Mexico" on January 21st. More than 100 people and 60 companies attended the event. The Consul General opened the conference along with the Mexican Consul of Brownsville, Texas, and Dr. Abraham Greenspan, Program Director of the International Trade Center. Seminar topics included how to establish a business in the U.S. or Mexico, legal issues in both countries, and business opportunities in the region. The Matamoros Consulate General also offered presentations on business visas and commercial services on behalf of the U.S. Commercial Service. The Small Business Development Center at the University of Texas, Pan American plans to have a similar event at their facilities in Edinburg, Texas on March 11-12, 2010. (Matamoros) ¶11. (U) NATIONAL COUNCIL OF THE MAQUILA INDUSTRY AND EXPORT MANUFACTURERS (CNIMME) SWEARS IN FIRST FEMALE PRESIDENT: This month, Monica Gonzalez Greer became the first female president of the National Council of the Maquila Industry and Export Manufacturers in Mexico (CNIMME). Gonzales is the operations director of Porta-Systems, a telecommunications firm located in Matamoros. She is also a past president of the Matamoros Maquiladora Association. In local news reports, Gonzales stressed increasing the competitiveness of Mexican maquilas as her goal. CNIMME represents 1,200 member corporations and about 1.3 million employees throughout Mexico. (Matamoros) ¶12. (U) MATAMOROS EXPO 2010 TO BE HELD FEBRUARY 24-25: The Matamoros Maquila Association will hold their annual suppliers expo February 24-25, 2010, in Matamoros, Mexico. Anticipated attendees include purchasing representatives, engineers, plant managers and key decision makers from more than 100 plants located in Matamoros and the state of Tamaulipas. Some of the companies seeking suppliers and schedule to attend include: Delphi, HIlti, Tyco Electronics, TRW automotive, Kidde, PEMEX, and Black & Decker. More information can be found at: http://expoproveedores2010.com/, or contact Matamoros EconOff (palazzoloaj@state.gov). (Matamoros) ¶13. (U) FONAES OFFERING FUNDS TO SMALL BUSINESSES: On January 19, the National Support Fund for Social Enterprises (Fonaes), announced plans to offer financing up to USD 77,000 to entrepreneurs with limited resources. Fonaes signed an agreement with the Monterrey city government to help channel support for business incubator programs to encourage job and new business creation as a means to improve economic conditions. The smallest grants are for individuals in the amount of USD 3,860 while the largest grants are for social enterprises or cooperatives up to USD 77,000. Fonaes will also provide business training to grant recipients. (Monterrey) -------------- TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE -------------- ¶14. (U) MEXICO REJECTS OPEN SKIES: The Communications and Transportation Secretariat (SCT) maintains its position of rejecting open skies, despite the fact that the governors of Nayarit, Quintana Roo and Guanajuato believe it would greatly benefit tourism. Gilberto Lopez Meyer, Director of Airports and Auxiliary Services (ASA),said that an open skies policy would hurt national airlines. Currently, only three U.S. airlines are allowed to operate in Mexico and vice-versa. Labor Secretary Javier Lozano defended SCT's position by saying that Mexico should first strengthen competition domestically. He emphasized that Mexico should continue to sign bilateral agreements with other countries based on reciprocity. (Mexico City) ¶15. (U) RAILROAD COMPANIES INVEST US$895 MILLION IN INFRASTRUCTURE: At the 2010 Expo-Rail conference, held in Monterrey on January 25, railroad industry representatives discussed strategies for increasing shipment volumes by 10 percent in 2010, methods for protecting shipments, and ways to invigorate stalled suburban train projects that were suspended in 2007 due to lack of government funding. The federal government will invest USD 466 million in infrastructure projects while the railroad companies, including Ferromex, Ferrosur, Kansas City Southern Mexico, Ferrovalle, Ferroistmo, and Metrorrey, agreed to invest USD 429 million. Monterrey-based Metrorrey will invest USD 116.6 million. (Monterrey) -------------- ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT -------------- ¶16. (U) BP SOLAR REACHES AGREEMENT TO ASSEMBLE SOLAR PANEL IN CHIHUAHUA: BP Solar, a unit of oil company British Petroleum, announced an agreement with Jabil Circuit, Inc. on January 26 to assemble solar panels for its North American market in Jabil's Chihuahua City plant. The agreement calls for Jabil to produce 45 megawatt (MW) panels. "Mexico is strategic in improving module time-to-market for our North American customers, and we expect Jabil will become a cornerstone of our fulfillment strategy," said CEO of BP Solar, Reyad Fezzani. Production will begin in the second quarter of this year. Jabil's partnership with BP Solar follows its June 2009 agreement with SunPower, a solar panel manufacturer, to assemble solar modules in Chihuahua City. Combined, these investments are expected to create more than 1,000 jobs, according to Jabil's vice president of strategic development. (Ciudad Juarez) ¶17. (U) WATER SHORTAGE WOES IN HERMOSILLO: Due to an extended period of lower-than-average rainfall in Hermosillo, the local reservoir responsible for one-quarter of the municipality's water is closed and underground aquifers providing the other three-quarters are being rapidly depleted. To prevent a more serious crisis during the dry spring and early summer months, the PAN municipal government has implemented water rationing, with only 8 hours of public access to water each day. While local residents complain of low water pressure, poor water quality and far less than 8 hours of service, manufacturers report a cut back in production due to short water supplies. Governor Guillermo Padres (PAN) is expected to present a long term water resources plan by no later than March. Two rumored solutions are the construction of an aqueduct from eastern Sonora's El Novillo reservoir and/or a desalination plant on the coast of the Sea of Cortez. While financially more feasible, the El Novillo project faces strong opposition from agricultural and tribal interests that control water rights in that area. Until local governments come up with a comprehensive solution and secure financing, water rationing, conservation measures, government subsidies for water tanks and repair of existing infrastructure will likely continue. (Hermosillo) ¶18. (U) CONAGUA AND 80 COMPANIES INVEST IN SAVING WATER: On January 21, the National Commission of Water (Conagua) and 80 companies, including Monterrey-based firms such as Cemex, Femsa, and Lamosa, signed on to a USD 78 million initiative aimed at saving and efficiently using water. The companies plan to implement a program that will conserve water in their facilities and in the homes of 600,000 of their direct employees (which will indirectly impact an estimated 2.4 million people). The companies will replace bathroom fixtures, showers, and high water consumption valves for water-saving accessories and mechanisms available on the market. (Monterrey) ¶19. (U) CANADIAN POTASH CORP ANALYZE ZACATECAS RESERVOIR: On January 20, the world's largest potassium company, Potash Corp, a Canadian potash, nitrogen, and phosphate producer, visited the a large lithium and potassium reservoir in Zacatecas to analyze the potential for investment in the newly discovered reservoir. If the company decides to proceed, initial investments to jump-start the project would be around USD 500 million. A production plant for the project envisioned for San Luis Potosi would generate between 2,000-3,000 jobs. Industry watchers expect demand for lithium, a key battery component, to increase as automobile companies gear up to produce more electric "green" automobiles worldwide. (Monterrey) FEELEY