GRM RESPONDS HARSHLY TO DONOR CONCERNS ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MAPUTO 000050 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/12/2020 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KCOR EAID MZ SUBJECT: GRM RESPONDS HARSHLY TO DONOR CONCERNS ON GOVERNANCE REF: 09 MAPUTO 1396 MAPUTO 00000050 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Todd Chapman, Reasons 1.4(b+d) ¶1. (C) Summary: International donors have spent recent weeks coordinating a response to the GRM's flawed October 28 elections process, with several nations contemplating reductions in assistance to the central government. The G-19 Donor Group sent a letter to the GRM in December laying out specific concerns and calling for a concrete timeline for the government to show improvement in democracy and government indicators. Despite the international community's calls for constructive dialogue, GRM Ministerial response was extremely negative to the letter--but President Guebuza's reaction was even more so in interactions with diplomats. Not surprisingly, the GRM has enlisted state media to launch attacks on the international community. While these exchanges portend a difficult patch in Mozambican relations with donors, it is clear that USG efforts in coordination with other international partners have paid dividends: our message on democracy has certainly struck a chord, and the GRM is now expressing a desire, albeit begrudgingly, to find a way to move forward. End Summary. -------------- Donors Express Governance Concerns -------------- ¶2. (C) In the aftermath of Mozambique's flawed October 28 presidential and legislative elections, the G-19 Donor Group (comprised mostly of Europeans, Canada, and World Bank, with the United States and UNDP as associate members) debated on a course of action. The British, Canadian, Swiss, and Swedish Ambassadors all noted their willingness to reduce direct budget support assistance to the GRM by at least 10 percent in 2010. The other Nordics and the Netherlands noted they were studying the possibility of a similar response. Several countries discussed the possibility of withholding disbursements pending positive GRM action. After much deliberation--essentially to overcome objections by the Portuguese, Spanish, and Italians--the Finnish Ambassador, as chair of the donor group, sent a letter to the GRM's Minister of Planning and Development on December 8 which highlighted donor concerns about governance and electoral issues, requested meetings with the GRM to discuss these concerns, and noted that a resolution of these discussions by mid-March 2010 was important so as to influence governments' decisions on disbursements. (Note: See text of letter in para 9. End Note) On December 9 the G-19 fowarded a more detailed letter outlining donor concerns on political inclusiveness and political reform, transparency in economic governance, and corruption. -------------- Ministers React Viscerally -------------- ¶3. (C) The GRM reacted harshly to these letters. The EU had its regularly-scheduled political dialogue with the GRM on December 15 with Foreign Minister Oldemiro Baloi, who noted surprise at the donors' actions. Baloi said that the GRM would not respond to threats from the international community and wished that resident ambassadors would stop mis-informing their capitals about Mozambique. On December 16, the Charge met with Minister of the Presidency Antonio Sumbana to underscore USG support for the G-19 efforts and ongoing USG concerns about the deteriorating trends in Mozambique's democratic development. Minister Sumbana launched into an oft-repeated recounting of Mozambique's difficult history and the need to preserve peace in the country, above all else. Such pressure as exerted by the donor community, said Sumbana, "only reminds us that we are poor and dependent, and we do not need to be reminded." He said that it was humiliating for the government to be treated this way and in public. The Charge, noting that it was the GRM and not the donors which made the G-19 letters public, encouraged a more constructive response. ¶4. (C) The G-19 Leadership Group, led by Finland and including the UK, Ireland, the World Bank and European Commission, met December 16 with a group of six ministers, led by Minister of Planning and Development Aiuba Cuereneia. MAPUTO 00000050 002.2 OF 003 It was a tense meeting filled with testy exchanges. According to Finland's written record of the meeting, Minister Cuereneia's initial response was one of indignation and disbelief. He stressed the importance of understanding Mozambique's history, the low starting point for the country's economic recovery following the end of the civil war, and that the GRM was addressing the concerns raised by the donors. He was surprised to hear that most disbursements for 2010 would only take place after the conclusion of the consultations on democracy and governance issues and questioned the rationale of a tight deadline. Finance Minister Manuel Chang stressed the importance of budget support and the devastating effects reductions in support would have on the country's reform efforts. Minister of State Administration Lucas Chomera, taking a different approach, appealed for patience. Minister Chomera compared the current situation with that of a student that was very good but suddenly was seen as very bad solely for having flunked in one subject. -------------- Donors Urge for Constructive Dialogue -------------- ¶5. (C) The Finnish Ambassador responded that the dialogue with the GRM had been positive and recognized achievements made. The UK Ambassador noted the relationship between party and state as a main concern and wondered how the distinction between the two could be made clearer. The World Bank representative commented that the G-19's concerns expressed during political dialogues were a soft form of rating, which market forces would do in a much more brutal form. The EU representative noted that expectations at headquarters regarding governance are now higher and that concrete results are necessary. -------------- President Guebuza's Scathing Diatribe -------------- ¶6. (C/NF) On December 18 UK Ambassador Andrew Soper (strictly protect) and DFID representative met with President Guebuza at the President's request. Purportedly to follow up on bilateral UK assistance issues, Guebuza instead accused the international community of humiliating him, his government and his country. Though not shouting, Guebuza was visibly angry and aggressive in tone. Soper described the experience as being "dressed down by the President, and that if I were a Mozambican, I would definitely be intimidated by Guebuza," whose reputation for ruthless action (especially as Interior Minister immediately after independence) remains but is rarely witnessed by the diplomatic community. Guebuza told Soper: "I will not be humiliated. I know what it is like to be humiliated. I was imprisoned by PIDE (the Portuguese security service during colonial times) and forced to drink my own urine. I will not go through that humiliation again." Soper told Guebuza that the G-19 had intentionally not gone public with its communication to the GRM and hoped to be able to have a constructive dialogue. Later on December 18, Guebuza hosted the diplomatic corps at his residence for a year-end reception. Unlike the two previous years, in which Guebuza was friendly and interacting with diplomats, this year he was serious throughout and did not greet anyone except the Swazi Ambassador in his role as acting dean. -------------- State Media Criticizes Int'l Community -------------- ¶7. (C) As expected, press reaction from government-controlled media to the G-19's actions has been harsh, with numerous end-of-year editorials decrying international meddling in Mozambique's internal affairs. Some braver independent commentators have noted that the concerns expressed by the G-19 are shared by many in Mozambique, but few dare to express them. Some FRELIMO sycophants suggest that the GRM, based on its resounding electoral victory, should discount the discordant views from "only a few Western countries" and continue with its programs, even if there is a small decline in international assistance. Once Mozambique emerges from its post-holiday MAPUTO 00000050 003.2 OF 003 break on January 18, the press debates are expected to resume with earnest. -------------- Comment: GRM Finally Takes Donors Seriously -------------- ¶8. (C) Any doubts the GRM may have had about the seriousness of international donor community concerns about democracy and governance issues have been dispelled. As demonstrated by the Ministers' and the President's strong reactions to resident Ambassadors, the messages delivered and the linkages made with assistance levels are challenging the GRM to re-think its policies and to re-evaluate its approach on issues of greatest interest to donors. Working in close collaboration with our European and Canadian colleagues to express these concerns jointly is clearly paying off. At this juncture, all eyes are on the announcement of President Guebuza's new Cabinet, expected shortly after his Presidential Inauguration on January 14. Meanwhile, jockeying has already started as one of the President's advisors already informally approached the U.S. Embassy requesting for a meeting on January 18 to hear in detail our concerns and proposals for a way forward. We will work in close consultation with the G-19 donor group, but maintain these direct channels as well to maximize communication and USG influence. -------------- Addendum: Text of G-19 Letter to GRM -------------- ¶9. (U) Text of December 8 G-19 letter to GRM from Finnish Ambassador: I wish to formally advise the Government of Mozambique of the G-19's serious concerns on governance and electoral issues. Prompted by the lack of progress on the matters raised before the elections by Heads of Mission with His Excellency the President, the pre-existing concerns of the Group have been significantly underlined. They relate to serious governance shortcomings, essentially those identified in the previous political dialogues, and also in the reports of the EU Elections Observation Mission and the African Peer Review Mechanism. A paper setting out our concerns will follow. Based on this, there is a view, for many, that a breach may have occurred of the Underlying Principles of the MoU. To address these concerns, we wish to initiate an early dialogue with the GoM. I should add that even those G19 members, whose position in the MoU and the Underlying Principles is reserved, share a desire to see these issues fully resolved within the limits of their reservations. There is a strong desire on the part of the partners we represent to sustain the heretofore excellent relationship with the GoM and to ensure that disbursements for 2010 are influenced by a positive outcome to these deliberations. We have calculated that an outcome reached no later than mid-March might facilitate this. We look forward to your response and to beginning our discussions as quickly as possible. End text. CHAPMAN