PHILIPPINES VOLCANO THREAT EASES; SUCCESSFUL 'ZERO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 000010 SENSITIVE SIPDIS BANGKOK FOR USAID /OFDA REGIONAL ADVISOR A. DWYER USAID FOR DCHA/OFDA R. THAYER USAID W/ FOR ANE/AA AND DCHA/FPP GENEVA FOR N. KYLOH USUN FOR OFDA REP BRUSSELS FOR P. BROWN ROME FOR USAID/OHA H. SPANOS SECDEF FOR SOLIC JOINT STAFF WASHDC FOR J3/J4/J5 PACOM FOR J3/J4/J5 NSC FOR P. MARCHAM E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID SOCI PREL KPAO SENV EAGR CASC RP SUBJECT: PHILIPPINES VOLCANO THREAT EASES; SUCCESSFUL 'ZERO CASUALTY' EVACUATION WRAPS UP REFTELS: A) 09 Manila 2583 B) 09 Manila 2597 C) 09 Manila 2610 D) 09 Manila 2636 E) 09 Manila 2638 ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Philippine volcanologists downgraded the threat level of southern Luzon's Mount Mayon to Alert Level 3 on January 2, allowing nearly all 48,000 evacuees to return to their homes on the volcano's slopes. Albay provincial officials attribute their successful management of the crisis and the lack of fatalities to well-practiced evacuation protocols, as well as assistance from the United States and others. End Summary. -------------- Declining Activity Merits Threat Downgrade -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Expecting a trend of declining volcanic activity that began on December 28 to persist, Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) scientists lowered the threat level of Mount Mayon from Alert Level 4 to 3 on January 2. The number of volcanic earthquakes has decreased from a December 21 high of almost 2,000 per day to three on January 4, and the daily volume of sulfur dioxide emissions has stabilized at 2,000 tons, from a peak of over 8,000 tons, according to PHIVOLCS bulletins. In a January 4 radio interview, PHIVOLCS Director Renato Solidum said that barring an upturn in reactivity, he expected to maintain Alert Level 3, which signifies 'relatively high unrest,' for another week or more. -------------- Ninety Five Percent of Evacuees Return Home -------------- ¶3. (SBU) More than 95 percent of the almost 48,000 people whom authorities evacuated since December 14 had returned to their homes by January 4, according to the Albay Province Public Safety and Emergency Management Office. Approximately 500 families whose homes lie in the permanent danger zone within four miles of the summit will remain in vacuation centers until PHIVOLCS authorities dowgrade the threat to Alert Level 2. According to mdia reports, provincial authorities are distributing a two-month supply of rice to decamping families, as well as providing a payment of 1,400 Philippine pesos (USD 30),for which families are obligated to repair and clean up evacuation centers. -------------- Evacuation Practice Pays Off -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Albay provincial authorities identify preemptive evacuation as the key response mechanism in their effort to achieve zero disaster casualties. Provincial disaster officials told us that conducting seven mass typhoon- and volcano-related evacuations in recent years fine-tuned evacuation protocols. Chief Provincial Health Officer Doctor Chito Mendoza noted that not only could none of the four fatalities that occurred in the evacuation centers be attributed to the conditions there, but that this number represented a 71 percent decrease in the expected number of fatalities for a population of 48,000 in Albay province. This statistic indicates that evacuees receivedhigher quality food and health care in the evacuation centers than they did while living independently, according to Dr. Mendoza. -------------- U.S. Disaster Relief Past and Present -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Based on continued high levels of volcanic activity at the end of last month, the Ambassador exercised her disaster relief authority on December 29 (ref E) and requested USD 100,000 from the U.S. Agency for International Development Office of U.S. Foreign MANILA 00000010 002 OF 002 Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA),of which USD 50,000 was released to the Philippine National Red Cross (PNRC) on January 1. The PNRC originally planned to use these funds to procure and distribute non-food items such as face masks to filter out volcanic ash, tarpaulins for emergency shelters, as well as mosquito nets and hygiene kits. As a result of the reduced alert level and the resulting decampment of most evacuees, however, USAID/OFDA will reevaluate the use of those funds. In light of the historical unpredictability of Mayon's hazardous eruptions, USAID will continue to assess the potential use of the unobligated USD 50,000. ¶6. (SBU) Albay Governor Jose Sarte 'Joey' Salceda and other provincial officials have publicly and privately thanked the United States and other international donors for past and present disaster relief assistance. USAID has funded over five million dollars of disaster relief and preparedness projects in Albay province since 2006 (Refs A and C),and a broad range of international and non-governmental organizations provided food and technical assistance to the Mayon volcano refugees during the recent crisis (Ref D). ¶7. (SBU) A high regional population density and the draw of rich volcanic soil have led many Filipinos to make their homes on the volcano's slopes. Authorities estimate that almost 130,000 residents live within range of a catastrophic explosion. To mitigate the need for recurring evacuations, provincial officials have begun a program to permanently relocate those living within four miles of the summit. To date they have provided developed lots outside the danger zone to over 10,000 households that currently reside in these high risk areas. Kenney