SCENESETTER FOR ASSISTANT SECRETARY CARSON'S

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MADRID 000075 SENSITIVE SIPDIS FOR AF/RSA - RYAN BOWLES E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL SP SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR ASSISTANT SECRETARY CARSON'S JANUARY 27-28 VISIT TO SPAIN Summary -------------- ¶1. (U) Embassy Madrid welcomes your visit for EU consultations on Africa being hosted by Spain. The GOS seeks to strengthen EU (and GOS) ties with the USG during its presidency. U.S.-Spain relations are strong and based on shared global interests, including our association in NATO, the fight against terrorism, and growing economic ties. Spaniards are enthusiastic about President Obama, and President Zapatero's desire for closer bilateral relations and enhanced engagement is reflected in GOS stances on Afghanistan and Guantanamo. Africa has become increasingly important to the GOS in recent years, and your interlocutors will be eager to meet with you. Bilateral Relations -------------- ¶2. (U) We value Spanish cooperation on security issues and in the fights against terrorism and narcotics. Spain is a strong bilateral defense partner, despite differences in the past. Spain operates a Provincial Reconstruction Team in Afghanistan with about 1,000 troops participating in ISAF. Zapatero's enthusiasm for President Obama and his desire for closer bilateral relations have resulted in GOS willingness to send 511 more troops to Afghanistan, pending legislative approval, and to take five Guantanamo detainees. In both cases, Zapatero has faced public criticism that he has subordinated Spain's interest to President Obama's. Spain also allows us the use of two military bases, Rota and Moron, that are crucial transit points between the U.S. and Afghanistan and Iraq. Counter-terrorism and law enforcement cooperation is strong, and business ties are increasing. Political Context -------------- ¶3. (U) President Zapatero won re-election to a second term in ¶2008. His center-left Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE) is seven seats shy of a Congressional majority and fared poorly in regional and European Parliament elections in 2009. Zapatero's popularity and credibility have suffered because of the long recession and high unemployment, his initial unwillingness to acknowledge the seriousness of the economic situation, and his continued claims that things will get better soon. Recent polls suggest the main opposition party -- the Popular Party or PP -- would win an election held today. Economic Context -------------- ¶4. (U) Spain grew much faster than the EU average over the 15 years through 2007 and now has the world's 9th largest economy. The rapid growth was driven by a housing boom that ended in 2007, after which the world economic crisis aggravated the economy's woes. Spain has been in recession for almost two years. The economy is expected to continue contracting until later in 2010, which would make it the last large economy to begin to recover, and the eventual recovery is expected to be sluggish. Unemployment, now over 19%, is expected to pass 20% this year. The GOS has responded with a major fiscal stimulus. This has boosted the budget deficit to around 10% of GDP, and the GOS will have to limit spending significantly between now and 2013 to meet EU deficit requirements. Zapatero's government is working to reorient Spain's economy towards more sustainable sectors, with renewable energy a key priority. Spain, the 10th largest foreign investor in the U.S., is especially active in wind and solar power, banking, and road construction. The U.S. is also a major investor in Spain. EU Presidency -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Spain's presidency of the Council of the EU gives Zapatero an opportunity to emphasize an international role to counter the negative domestic economic situation. He seeks to use the presidency to show that he is taking a leading international role in responding to the economic crisis; this ties in with his argument that the crisis is an international problem for which his government should not be held responsible. The GOS has been stung by foreign press criticism (in the Economist, Financial Times, and New York Times) of Spain's intentions for its presidency. At his January 8 press conference with Van Rompuy and Barroso to mark the start of Spain's presidency, Zapatero had to argue MADRID 00000075 002 OF 002 that Spain's economic difficulties did not disqualify it from helping lead EU economic recovery efforts. ¶6. (SBU) The need to adjust to the new roles of President Van Rompuy and High Representative Ashton will be both a major focus of the Spanish presidency and a factor that will reduce the prominence of Spain's role from what it might have been. Initial GOS aspirations to use the presidency to address a wide range of issues seem to be giving way to a greater focus on key issues. Zapatero and his officials have repeatedly cited strengthening transatlantic relations as a key aim of Spain's presidency. For domestic political reasons, they intensely want a US-EU summit, and the lack of a Presidential visit would be seen as a major failure of Zapatero and a sign of USG disinterest. Africa -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Unlike North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa has not traditionally been a Spanish priority, but that is changing thanks to terrorism, illegal immigration, and narcotics trafficking. Zapatero promised at the beginning of his second term to make sub-Saharan Africa a top priority. Spain's Plan Africa for 2009-2012 provides for increased diplomatic and development assistance in North and sub-Saharan Africa. Spain has been increasing its presence in the region with new embassies and new development offices. The still unresolved November 2009 kidnapping in Mauritania by AQIM of three Spanish NGO aid workers has garnered wide attention here and been a vivid reminder of the threat from AQIM. ¶8. (SBU) In 2006 the maritime flow of illegal immigrants headed to Spain rose dramatically, with the Canary Islands being a principal destination. A sustained law enforcement response has reduced the flow. Members of the National Police and Civil Guard are engaged in security assistance and liaison programs with several countries in Africa (Morocco, Cape Verde, Senegal, and Mauritania). Part of Spain's increased diplomatic engagement in West Africa is designed to safeguard repatriation arrangements for illegal immigrants. ¶9. (SBU) Spain remains a principal entry, transshipment, and consumption zone for the large quantities of South American cocaine and Moroccan cannabis destined for European consumer markets, and is also a major source and transit location for drug proceeds returning to South and Central America. West African traffickers play an increasingly important role in this trade. ¶10. (SBU) Somali piracy has been a major issue for the Spanish, with two Spanish boats taken and ransomed in 2008 and 2009. The issue has caused much embarrassment to the GOS because of its perceived powerlessness in the face of the pirates. The Spanish have played a prominent role in Operation Althea and have offered to lead an EU CSDP training mission for Somali security forces. Personal Security -------------- ¶11. (U) In general, Spain is safe. However, Madrid and other large cities attract a large number of criminals and pickpockets, and frequent crimes of opportunity against the unwary do occur. It is best to carry only essential items, including a photocopy of your passport's photo page. Visitors can protect themselves against crime by being street-smart, alert, and aware of their surroundings. Travelers are encouraged to review the most recent Worldwide Caution issues by the Department of State. As the Department of State continues to develop information on any potential security threats to Americans overseas, it shares credible threat information through its Consular Information Program, available on the Internet at http://travel/state.gov. Additional information regarding safety and security in Spain is available on the U.S. Department of State's website (www.embusa.es). SOLOMONT