"OR NOT TO BE" -- ZAMBIA UNLIKELY TO ASSOCIATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LUSAKA 000044 SIPDIS STATE FOR OES/EGC DNELSON AND KLARSEN, OESENV RKASTENBERG, AND AF/S LAYLWARD E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/20/2015 TAGS: PREL KGHG SENV ENRG ZA SUBJECT: "OR NOT TO BE" -- ZAMBIA UNLIKELY TO ASSOCIATE WITH COPENHAGEN ACCORD REF: STATE 3080 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. Michael Koplovsky for reasons 1. 4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) On January 19, the Ambassador spoke to Zambian Minister of Tourism, Environment and Natural Resources Catherine Namugala about the results of the December COP-15 and next steps. He urged Zambia to associate itself with the Copenhagen Accord per reftel. Namugala, who led the Zambian delegation to Copenhagen, responded that (unspecified) "stakeholders" will meet in late January to help guide the GRZ's decision. Although she understood the need for some sort of commitment on climate change, whether binding or voluntary, and was very complimentary of President Obama's role at the COP-15, Namugala expressed reservations about the Accord's lack of legally binding commitments. She indicated that she would be willing to meet with the Charge in late January or early February before the GRZ makes its decision. ¶2. (C) On January 15, DCM raised reftel talking points with a confused and uninformed Foreign Ministry. Foreign Affairs Permanent Secretary Tens Kapoma -- usually the GRZ in-house expert on all things UN -- was unaware of the UNFCCC process and referred DCM to Namugala, an indication that no preparations are underway in Zambia to move forward with association. ¶3. (C) Despite Embassy's efforts to convince the GRZ to associate itself with the Accord, it is unlikely Zambia will support it. During a January 18 interview, Namugala publicly criticized the Accord for not specifying funds to reduce REDD-related emissions or to remove forest-related greenhouse gas emissions and for not having legally binding commitments. The GRZ has not given any indication that it will take a principled position in support of the Accord, and it typically follows regional, African, and Non-Aligned Movement consensus on such issues. KOPLOVSKY