SLOVENIA: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL VOINOVICH

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 LJUBLJANA 000036

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR H AND EUR/CE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON MARR SI
SUBJECT: SLOVENIA: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL VOINOVICH

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REF:

A. STATE 09051

B. Fedkiw - Marty emails 2/5/2010

Sensitive but unclassified. Please protect accordingly. This cable
is a copy of the scenesetter sent on 2/5/2010 (Ref B).


1. (SBU) Senator Voinovich, welcome back to Ljubljana; Senator
Shaheen, we look forward to welcoming you on your first trip to this
beautiful little country. Your visit is an excellent opportunity to
reinforce the importance of the U.S.-Slovenian bilateral
relationship and thank Slovenia for the contributions it has made to
ISAF and NATO operations. Slovenia is in the midst of determining
its future role on the international stage as it prepares a
newly-updated foreign policy strategy. We would like to see
Slovenia actively assist with Afghanistan's stabilization and
reconstruction efforts, take a stronger leadership role in assisting
the Western Balkans to further integrate into Euro-Atlantic
institutions, and act as a force multiplier within the EU in
addressing common security threats such as climate change, energy
security and Iran's nuclear program. We also see climate and energy
as two areas where U.S. companies may be able to provide
cost-effective, "green" solutions for Slovenia. Your meetings will
help us reinforce our message that Slovenia must not only follow
through with the Alliance commitments it has made to date, but also
continue to look beyond its borders to address the most pressing
issues in southeast Europe and beyond if it is to receive the
recognition it seeks.

OVERVIEW OF SLOVENIA


2. (U) Slovenia has a great story to tell. In the relatively short
time since the breakup of the former Yugoslavia, Slovenia has
instituted a vibrant, stable, multi-party, democratic political
system characterized by regular elections, a free press, and an
excellent human rights record. Slovenia has the highest per capita
GDP of any post-communist country and was the first country in
Central and Eastern Europe to adopt the Euro. As a member of the
Schengen zone of borderless travel, it takes seriously its role in
ensuring the security of Europe's -- and ultimately the United
States' -- borders.


3. (U) Diplomatically-speaking, this country of only two million is
boxing above its weight. Slovenia was the first of the twelve new
members of the European Union to take on the organization's
presidency, a role that can be challenging even for much larger
countries. In the short time since its independence, Slovenia
served as the Chairman-in-Office of the Council of Europe (May-Nov
2009),President of the European Council (Jan-June 2008),
Chairman-in-Office of the Organization for Security and Co-operation
in Europe (OSCE, 2005),and Chairman of the International Atomic
Energy Agency's (IAEA) Board of Governors (2006-2007). Slovenia is
slated to continue its visible EU role as it prepares to host the
European Union's new Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators
(ACER) in Ljubljana.

YOUR MEETINGS


4. (SBU) While you are in Slovenia, you will meet with President
Danilo Turk, Prime Minister Pahor, Foreign Minister Samuel Zbogar
and, most likely, Defense Minister Ljubica Jelusic. You may also
have the opportunity to meet opposition leader Janez Jansa. Our
interlocutors are very much looking forward to your visit, which
will be the first Congressional Delegation to visit Slovenia since
the election of President Obama, and the first since the Pahor
government came to power in November 2008.


5. (SBU) President Turk is nominally independent, but comes from the
political Left. He is held in high esteem by the Slovene public and
consistently polls as the most-liked politician in Slovenia. His
many years of experience in the United Nations have strongly
influenced his views on human security issues, the international
mission in Afghanistan, and the Middle East peace process. Borut
Pahor, Slovenia's current Prime Minister, leads a coalition of
center-left parties that holds a simple majority in Parliament.
Pahor is well-disposed to the United States and is a frank
interlocutor. Foreign Minister Zbogar is a career diplomat who
spent several years in the UN with Turk and served as Slovenia's
Ambassador to the United States from 2004-2008. Ljubica Jelusic,
Slovenia's Minister of Defense, is a pragmatic and forward-looking
leader who greatly values our assistance in the ongoing
transformation of the Slovene Armed Forces. Finally, former Prime
Minister and vocal opposition leader Janez Jansa remains a powerful
player in Slovene politics. His center-right party challenges
Pahor's coalition and its policies at every turn, including with
regard to the arbitration agreement set to resolve the long-standing
border dispute with Croatia.

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THE U.S.-SLOVENIA BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP
A PARTNER IN THE WESTERN BALKANS: SLOVENIA'S "ADDED VALUE"


6. (SBU) Since Slovenia's declaration of independence in 1991, the
United States and Slovenia have developed a strong bilateral
relationship based on a consistent record of cooperation on regional
issues. We have worked closely with the Slovenes to resolve most of
the succession issues stemming from the breakup of Yugoslavia.
Slovenia provided invaluable assistance to the United States and
NATO by facilitating deployment of the Implementation Force (IFOR)
and subsequently Stabilization Force (SFOR) to Bosnia after the
conclusion of the Dayton Accords. With strong U.S. support,
Slovenia developed the International Trust Fund for Demining and
Mine-Victim Assistance (ITF) as the demining instrument of choice in
the Balkans. Congress has appropriated $126 million to support the
work of the ITF, including $12.2 million for 2009. ITF seeks to
expand its operations beyond the region, but it is not currently
authorized to use U.S. funds outside the area of its original
mandate.


7. (SBU) Slovenia sees eye-to-eye with the United States on nearly
all issues relating to the Western Balkans and offers us a good
partner in promoting transatlantic priorities in the region. The
one major stumbling block -- the Slovenia-Croatia border dispute --
appears to be on its way to resolution now that the Prime Ministers
of the two countries signed an agreement to send the dispute to
arbitration. Slovenia's Constitutional Court is currently reviewing
the agreement before Parliament will consider ratification.
However, former PM Jansa's opposition to the agreement presents a
real threat to ratification. In the meantime, Croatia's EU
accession negotiations continue in Brussels. The Prime Ministers of
Slovenia and Croatia agreed in January to establish a joint
commission to review and propose solutions for outstanding problems
related to the remaining negotiation "chapters" -- namely fisheries,
environment and foreign relations. It is our understanding that
progress is being made on these chapters. You should encourage the
Slovenes to allow the opening of the remaining chapters as soon as
possible.


8. (SBU) Slovenia's strong political, economic, historical, and
people-to-people ties with the region give Ljubljana a unique
perspective into the problems of the Western Balkans. Slovenian
experts and government officials provide training in the areas of
legislation, democracy building and organization of key state
institutions, and Slovenian ministries have cooperated closely on a
technical level with their counterparts in the region. In addition
to official links, Slovenia has a complex web of connections with
the Western Balkans through NGOs, business and trade. Recent
figures indicate that 67% of Slovenian direct investment is in the
Western Balkans.


9. (SBU) Slovenia sees the prospect of EU and NATO membership not
only as a stabilizing factor in the Western Balkans, but also as a
key engine for reform, particularly in Sarajevo. Foreign Minister
Zbogar, whom you will meet, recently assessed that Slovenia enjoys
excellent relations with countries in the region based on mutual
trust and equal partnership. The FM noted Ljubljana's policy is to
apply a consistent and impartial approach to all countries in the
Western Balkans, and in particular, to places where there may be
fundamental disagreements such as Serbia and Kosovo. Because Bosnia
and Herzegovina (BiH) forms a major focal point for Slovenia's
overall foreign policy, the Slovenes offer us a good partner as we
work to help the Bosnians reform their constitution. The same can
be said of Slovenia's relations with Serbia and Kosovo. You should
encourage the Slovenes to use these close ties to help bridge the
divides among Bosnians, and between Kosovars and Serbs.

SLOVENIA'S CONTRIBUTIONS TO NATO, ISAF


10. (SBU) Slovenia's military has taken great strides in a short
time to become a professional force which is equipped and eager to
contribute to the collective security of the NATO Alliance. Slovene
contributions are of high quality even if quantity in absolute terms
is not large. U.S. and multinational commanders have repeatedly
praised Slovene soldiers for their professionalism. As of January
2010, the Slovene Armed Forces (SAF) include approximately 7,600
soldiers and 1,700 reservists. In addition to a deployable reaction
force (one brigade),the SAF has a small air force and naval
detachment. Slovenia has more than 500 soldiers (almost seven
percent of its forces) deployed abroad in international missions,
serving in places such as Kosovo, Afghanistan, Lebanon and Bosnia.
The United States provides bilateral military assistance primarily
through the International Military Education and Training (IMET)
program, Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program, and a state
partnership program with the Colorado National Guard.


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11. (SBU) Slovenia currently has two platoons (69 soldiers) deployed
with the Italians in Herat on a tightly-caveated force protection
mission. Slovenia has not suffered a single casualty in Afghanistan
to date. In a major step forward, the Government of Slovenia (GOS)
approved late last year the deployment of an Operational Mentoring
and Liaison Team (OMLT) to Herat with no functional caveats. This
was a difficult political move for Prime Minister Pahor, as he faced
-- and still faces -- strong opposition to Slovene involvement in
Afghanistan not only from a skeptical public, but from within his
own coalition. We are assisting Slovenia to prepare for the October
deployment of the OMLT.


12. (SBU) Defense Minister Jelusic's forward-leaning leadership on
defense transformation has been undermined by crippling budget cuts
even as the state's overall budget deficit has ballooned. You
should use your meetings with the Slovene leadership to highlight
the importance of Slovenia's active involvement in NATO -- and the
allocation of adequate resources -- not only to fulfill its
responsibilities as a strong Alliance partner, but also to serve as
a model for those countries in the Western Balkans seeking NATO
membership.

UNEXPLOITED ECONOMIC POTENTIAL


13. (U) On the commercial and economic front, we are working closely
with the American Chamber of Commerce in Slovenia and other
organizations to promote trade with the United States and to improve
the business climate for American companies. Slovenia remains a
largely overlooked market, though opportunities exist for exports
and technology transfers in many sectors, such as renewable
energies. In addition, Slovenia's extensive web of commercial ties
in the countries of the former Yugoslavia makes it a potential hub
for Americans looking to do business in the Western Balkans. The
global economic downturn has been felt strongly in Slovenia, where
60% to70% of GDP derives from exports, mostly to Germany and other
EU members. Government policies have prevented massive layoffs, but
unemployment has nevertheless increased to roughly 10% according to
Slovene government figures and the public budget deficit has
ballooned to 5.5% of GDP in 2009, exceeding the 3% limit set in the
European Union's Growth and Stability Pact.

THE INEVITABLE QUESTION


14. (SBU) You will undoubtedly be asked why there is no U.S.
Ambassador in Ljubljana and when one will arrive. The previous
Ambassador departed when President Obama took office. We take every
opportunity to reassure Slovenians by both word and deed that our
relationship remains strong. Your visit and the message that a
nomination -- though not yet a nominee -- is in the pipeline will
reassure them.

DOBRODOSLI AND WELCOME!


15. (SBU) Slovenia has much to offer the international community if
it continues to look beyond its borders to address the most pressing
issues in southeast Europe, Afghanistan and globally. We stand to
benefit from Slovenia's unique perspective on the Balkans as we work
together to address critical reforms in this region. Your visit
will help reassure the Slovenes that our ties are strong and
Washington remains committed to a close and mutually beneficial
bilateral relationship. I look forward to welcoming you to Slovenia
and briefing you upon your arrival.
FREDEN